When Does China Invade Taiwan?

[AlpineSummer]

If ever?  No poll because that becomes irrelevant w/o continual editing as time and posts evolve.

I'm seeing more speculation (from at least somewhat normal appearing sources) the time might be drawing closer.  Xi has a shit ton of problems which could be both causes to move or restrictions. I lean into the danger of a recent emerging power hitting a plateau/decline as a broad structural way of viewing the China-Taiwan situation.  The Trump global chaos seems to offer a window of action time. 

2025?  Later?  Never?

 

[son of a gun]

Taiwan would be a naval struggle. I would imagine the military leaders that have sense, would park at least one fleet nearby Taiwan if they got word China was making moves for the island. At that point, it would become another MAD situation, maybe even Bay of Pigs level.

[azgreg]

I'm not convinced it will ever happen.

 

[AlpineSummer]

On 4/7/2025 at 4:09 PM, AlpineSummer said:

2025?  Later?  Never?

 

I have no clue.  Fears, yes.  All the smartest folks in the think tank clubs don’t have it figured out.  

[Fowl]

I could be very wrong on this, but I've thought it's not China's style to just brutally invade.  They are very measured, untemperamental, and patient.  And it's not worth the consequences globally.

I've long thought that they will first bring money in to pay off Taiwanese politicians, to engender a narrative that China is there to "help" the Taiwanese.  After many years of this it would be much easier for them to just walk right in, or at least come in with less of a fuss given by the Taiwanese or the rest of the world.  The future of China is predicated upon maintaining a reputation of a partner, as opposed to someone out to screw every country with which they do business.

That said, given their current economic issues along with how further damaging the US tariffs could be over an extended period of time, I worry that Xi's hand will be forced to move.  Lingering economic woes with persistent higher unemployment and a deteriorating quality of life is in general not conducive to a dictator remaining in power.  A "war" would likely put more people to work and lift the economy somewhat but also rally the populace around the flag staving off any threat to Xi.  That's my concern - that Xi's hand will be forced.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

Not in the next few years.

China has a huge, massive fleet of basically worthless crap their tonnage per ship is less than WWI.  They lack in amphibious vehicles and the logistics to support them to secure a beach head.

Their tonnage per ship, is pretty pathetic compared to the US.  A shit ton of shit is just that...shit

 

Not only does their tonnage fail to be a remote peer, the quality of the tonnage is like comparing a  rocket propelled hand grenade to chucking a rock.

 

Further the West Coast of Taiwan is incredibly shallow.  It remains shallow until past the Taiwain Strait.  This would make any sub advantage null and sitting ducks to drones.  Their subs are also "noisy" which makes them easy to pin point.

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

 

Their tonnage is brown water based.  Almost 80% of it.  Ours is blue water based.  Their is blue water between the Western coast of Taiwan where they would be absolutely ass fucked and incur huge casualties, without Us direct intervention.

 

[halfmanhalfbronco]

While China has more ships than the US, the gulf of ability between the two navies is larger than the Gulf of America.

A single carrier fleet would fuck the absolute living shit out of China's entire navy.  Not close.  Goodbye.  They would lose half their tonnage on the first day.

The only way it happens is if they believe the gamble the US would not fulfill their commitments.  That is a huge gamble.  

Much more likely it happens under the next white house assuming a democrat wins.

 

[SWspartan]

On 4/7/2025 at 3:09 PM, AlpineSummer said:

If ever?  No poll because that becomes irrelevant w/o continual editing as time and posts evolve.

I'm seeing more speculation (from at least somewhat normal appearing sources) the time might be drawing closer.  Xi has a shit ton of problems which could be both causes to move or restrictions. I lean into the danger of a recent emerging power hitting a plateau/decline as a broad structural way of viewing the China-Taiwan situation.  The Trump global chaos seems to offer a window of action time. 

2025?  Later?  Never?

 

In the Fall of 2027 at the latest. I hope I'm wrong, but that's the feeling I get. 

 

[mugtang]

My guess is if they're going to do it it'll happen in 2029.

I'd be more worried about the Russian far east than Taiwan though.  I think that's where China will look to expand if they do.

[son of a gun]

Its not China's blue water capacity (or lackthereof) that bothers me, its the amount of missiles they can launch. Yes, 1 fleet would wipe out theirs, no issue. But missiles and air raids from the mainland would be an issue.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 4/7/2025 at 5:20 PM, Fowl said:

I could be very wrong on this, but I've thought it's not China's style to just brutally invade.  They are very measured, untemperamental, and patient.  And it's not worth the consequences globally.

I've long thought that they will first bring money in to pay off Taiwanese politicians, to engender a narrative that China is there to "help" the Taiwanese.  After many years of this it would be much easier for them to just walk right in, or at least come in with less of a fuss given by the Taiwanese or the rest of the world.  The future of China is predicated upon maintaining a reputation of a partner, as opposed to someone out to screw every country with which they do business.

That said, given their current economic issues along with how further damaging the US tariffs could be over an extended period of time, I worry that Xi's hand will be forced to move.  Lingering economic woes with persistent higher unemployment and a deteriorating quality of life is in general not conducive to a dictator remaining in power.  A "war" would likely put more people to work and lift the economy somewhat but also rally the populace around the flag staving off any threat to Xi.  That's my concern - that Xi's hand will be forced.

What would the net benefit be?

I agree with the OP that a power in decline poses a greater threat than a power who sees a rise in the future.  But it would be a huge risk.  The Chinese navy even without direct US involvement would sustain huge casualties.  The trade routes would be frozen.

The US would immediately deploy carrier units to seize control of movement of trade and that would just be a pretext to military attempts at deterrence and avoiding escalation.

China will bide their time.  Build up their navy and tactical support systems and platforms for such an invasion.

Right now it would be a god damn blood bath that would cripple their economy....history shows in China the people can put up with suffering for a an idealistic and cultural goal.  But it would be hard as fuck.

 

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 4/7/2025 at 5:37 PM, son of a gun said:

Its not China's blue water capacity (or lackthereof) that bothers me, its the amount of missiles they can launch. Yes, 1 fleet would wipe out theirs, no issue. But missiles and air raids from the mainland would be an issue.

I agree.  However this is not 2021 Ukraine.  Taiwan has the ability to launch missiles into Beijing and have superior defense systems.  If it became a missile war in the prologue, Taiwan would lose based on sheer volume but would deal heavy, heavy damage.  Tens of thousands would die in Beijing day 1 if it came to that, largely targeting key infrastructure.  

This would be a bloody, bloody war for China in the here and now.  It would destroy their economy.  It would rapidly deplete their fragile grey water navy.  Their limited blue water capability would be wipped out.

Yes, China could take it, but it would make what is happening in Ukraine look like a cake walk.  They would have to go balls out.  And take giant risks.

 

[azgreg]

On 4/7/2025 at 4:33 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

While China has more ships than the US, the gulf of ability between the two navies is larger than the Gulf of America.

A single carrier fleet would fuck the absolute living shit out of China's entire navy.  Not close.  Goodbye.  They would lose half their tonnage on the first day.

The only way it happens is if they believe the gamble the US would not fulfill their commitments.  That is a huge gamble.  

Much more likely it happens under the next white house assuming a democrat wins.

 

Gulf of what?

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 4/7/2025 at 5:55 PM, azgreg said:

Gulf of what?

If that is what you took...yawn....the easiest bait you chomped at lmfao

Get back to me when you are not a pawn to be played

God damn that was easy

[azgreg]

On 4/7/2025 at 5:03 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

If that is what you took...yawn....the easiest bait you chomped at lmfao

Get back to me when you are not a pawn to be played

God damn that was easy

Anybody who calls it the Gulf of America is a twat.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 4/7/2025 at 6:11 PM, azgreg said:

Anybody who calls it the Gulf of America is a twat.

Or was making a joke specifically to trigger you.  Gulf of America makes more sense anyways.  

But the reality is that a Chinese invasion of the Island of Taiwan, based only the current, at this point in time, capabilities of Taiwan, would mean fucking hell fire.  Taiwan is not Ukraine.  Taiwan actually matters.  Ukraine does not (oh fucking cry about it). And the military provision prove this point.

 

 

[AlpineSummer]

On 4/7/2025 at 5:35 PM, mugtang said:

My guess is if they're going to do it it'll happen in 2029.

I'd be more worried about the Russian far east than Taiwan though.  I think that's where China will look to expand if they do.

Eventually, but that’s a long time in China years.  Maybe.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

@AlpineSummer that beautiful amazing man

He starts all these threads, but the second I let months go by...he disappears 

Anything I want to talk about, backed up by more info peer reviewed and and dialogue that was personal....he ignores it...he can not stand the fact I am smarter than him.  He hates it. 

He hates the fact I am more read, far more, that reading is all I do....that I know more on any single topic locally...he hates it...He is an angry ,man who has personally insulted multiple times without me acting in kind to him 

[RSF]

It’s spring, and the egos are in bloom…

[azgreg]

On 4/7/2025 at 5:18 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Or was making a joke specifically to trigger you.  Gulf of America makes more sense anyways.  

But the reality is that a Chinese invasion of the Island of Taiwan, based only the current, at this point in time, capabilities of Taiwan, would mean fucking hell fire.  Taiwan is not Ukraine.  Taiwan actually matters.  Ukraine does not (oh fucking cry about it). And the military provision prove this point.

 

 

You didn't trigger anybody. You just outed yourself as a twat.