US threatens to shut off Starlink if Ukraine won't sign minerals deal

[halfmanhalfbronco]

I mean real talk, Ukraine is getting a $350 Billion infusion, double their annual GDP to rebuild and fortify their country in exchange the only thing they are giving up is access to a resources that they did not have the ability to tap into.  Now they WILL be able to tap into it themselves.  They are going to get a huge influx of soft power with the increased trading power and hard power as the perceived buttress for Europe.  

If this goes down and leads to a drawn down and end to the war.  Trump should be the easiest shoe in for the Nobel Piece prize in a generation.

 

 

[happycamper]

On 2/27/2025 at 12:47 AM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

 

 

It's a version of the security guarantee Ukraine was seeking.  Europe's emergency meetings failed to offer much hope as Europe is split on sending boots to keep the peace with the UK and France seemingly open, but the rest of the powers balking.

What this whole Ukrainian war has taught me is that if I am Italy, Poland, Germany... I am getting nuclear strike capabilities as fast as possible. 

 

[azgreg]

On 2/26/2025 at 11:00 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

in exchange the only thing they are giving up is access to a resources that they did not have the ability to tap into.

Listening to a piece on NPR yesterday it's not even that. The US gets half of the proceeds from rare earth mineral production and not the minerals themselves.

 

[happycamper]

On 2/27/2025 at 2:00 AM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

I mean real talk, Ukraine is getting a $350 Billion infusion, double their annual GDP to rebuild and fortify their country in exchange the only thing they are giving up is access to a resources that they did not have the ability to tap into.  Now they WILL be able to tap into it themselves.  They are going to get a huge influx of soft power with the increased trading power and hard power as the perceived buttress for Europe.  

If this goes down and leads to a drawn down and end to the war.  Trump should be the easiest shoe in for the Nobel Piece prize in a generation.

 

 

Right now the agreement has zero security guarantees and Russia is still insisting they get all of the 4 oblasts they "annexed" - so about a million people's worth of territory they've been incapable of capturing and Ukraine's fortress belt in the donbass.

This isn't a deal halfman. 

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 2/27/2025 at 9:29 AM, happycamper said:

Right now the agreement has zero security guarantees and Russia is still insisting they get all of the 4 oblasts they "annexed" - so about a million people's worth of territory they've been incapable of capturing and Ukraine's fortress belt in the donbass.

This isn't a deal halfman. 

We will see.  The "security" comes from heavy US presence and 350 billion to arm and rebuild them.  Beats the fuck out of Europe just twiddling their thumbs and not able to agree on anything.

More positive momentum.  Looks like the meeting with Starmer went really well.  

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/27/trump-starmer-meeting

And call it what you want, it beats the ever living fuck out of the Biden admin wanting for pressure/force them to open the draft to 18-24 year olds.  

Peace seems inevitable at this point.  Lasting peace seems more likely than at any point during the war.

Things are progressing.

 

[son of a gun]

On 2/27/2025 at 4:16 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

We will see.  The "security" comes from heavy US presence and 350 billion to arm and rebuild them.  Beats the fuck out of Europe just twiddling their thumbs and not able to agree on anything.

More positive momentum.  Looks like the meeting with Starmer went really well.  

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/27/trump-starmer-meeting

And call it what you want, it beats the ever living fuck out of the Biden admin wanting for pressure/force them to open the draft to 18-24 year olds.  

Peace seems inevitable at this point.  Lasting peace seems more likely than at any point during the war.

Things are progressing.

 

Of US workers supposedly extracting the minerals. And even that isn't even in writing yet. Its still all just speculation. Hell, Trump nearly canceled his meeting with Zelensky until Macron convinced him otherwise. That wasn't Starmer.

Yes, "talks" of ending the war aren't a bad thing. But when there's STILL nothing in writing, and Trump still being iffy with Zelensky (at best!), it does not paint a good picture for Ukraine. Ukraine NEEDS, IN WRITING, that the US and allies WILL step in should Russia decide to attack again. That's the only way to make Putin back off from a hot war like what's been happening. We could have Putin himself write that "on my father's name, I won't attack Ukraine again" or something similar, and the next day he would re-launch the invasion.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 2/27/2025 at 4:46 PM, son of a gun said:

Of US workers supposedly extracting the minerals. And even that isn't even in writing yet. Its still all just speculation. Hell, Trump nearly canceled his meeting with Zelensky until Macron convinced him otherwise. That wasn't Starmer.

Yes, "talks" of ending the war aren't a bad thing. But when there's STILL nothing in writing, and Trump still being iffy with Zelensky (at best!), it does not paint a good picture for Ukraine. Ukraine NEEDS, IN WRITING, that the US and allies WILL step in should Russia decide to attack again. That's the only way to make Putin back off from a hot war like what's been happening. We could have Putin himself write that "on my father's name, I won't attack Ukraine again" or something similar, and the next day he would re-launch the invasion.

Nah, they don't need that and they won't receive it.  They are not going to get an agreement that US troops will fight Russians on Ukrainian soil.  They can't even get Europe to agree to send in a peace keeping force after the war ends or a cease fire is made.

Looking at the geological surveys from the 80's and 90s the deal is based on, some of those deposits are in territory that Russia does not currently control in the east but has staked claim to.  If those deposits are in the mineral deal, that's about as good as it is going to get for a written assurance that further Russian aggression won't happen.  Those are our minerals now.  They would become property of the US.  

And 350 billion in arms, and infrastructure and cash to build up Ukraine's defense is worth more than our written word anyways.  A LOT MORE.  Look at the leaps Ukraine made from 2014 to 2021.  Give them to rebuild and rearm and retrain first and foremost.  The rest can be figure out later.

[The San Diegan]

In the end, if a deal is tabled that Ukrainian leadership is willing to sign off on, that is all that matters.

When asked for how long Ukraine should keep fighting, I have always maintained they should keep fighting as long as they want to. The converse is certainly true as well.

That being said, nothing is done until it is inked. The impulsive and transactional nature of 47 can be both a blessing and impediment in this regard.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

It really does look promising for the first time since the war started.

Trump praises Zelensky, apologizes.  Trump saying sorry?  

This mineral deal wouldn't be getting signed if all relevant parties, Ukraine, Russia and the US did not see it winding down and soon.

Productive talks with Macron and Starmer that both sides basically described as charming and hopeful.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqjdd2ej4peo

On 2/27/2025 at 7:36 PM, The San Diegan said:

In the end, if a deal is tabled that Ukrainian leadership is willing to sign off on, that is all that matters.

When asked for how long Ukraine should keep fighting, I have always maintained they should keep fighting as long as they want to. The converse is certainly true as well.

That being said, nothing is done until it is inked. The impulsive and transactional nature of 47 can be both a blessing and impediment in this regard.

This.  The Ukrainian people don't want to fight any more based on polling and interviews with commanders and soldiers.  

350 billion is 2X their annual pre war GDP.  That is HUGE.  And the mineral rights deal is also a huge economic win for them as they can use the very expensive infrastructure we will build to tap into them and sell their share which they can not do currently or without huge investment.

I think getting to this point required Trump do kiss Putins ass and talk with Russia first.  Ukraine gets a massive influx to rebuild and rearm, Trump get's his win, Putin's media is lapping it up and he is able to play it off as a win at home.

Prayers, prayers prayers.  

[The San Diegan]

On 2/27/2025 at 7:15 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

It really does look promising for the first time since the war started.

Trump praises Zelensky, apologizes.  Trump saying sorry?  

This mineral deal wouldn't be getting signed if all relevant parties, Ukraine, Russia and the US did not see it winding down and soon.

Productive talks with Macron and Starmer that both sides basically described as charming and hopeful.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqjdd2ej4peo

This.  The Ukrainian people don't want to fight any more based on polling and interviews with commanders and soldiers.  

350 billion is 2X their annual pre war GDP.  That is HUGE.  And the mineral rights deal is also a huge economic win for them as they can use the very expensive infrastructure we will build to tap into them and sell their share which they can not do currently or without huge investment.

I think getting to this point required Trump do kiss Putins ass and talk with Russia first.  Ukraine gets a massive influx to rebuild and rearm, Trump get's his win, Putin's media is lapping it up and he is able to play it off as a win at home.

Prayers, prayers prayers.  

Two thoughts - First, Putin is not as simply manipulated as is Trump, so I'm not sure puckering his pooper moves the needle. It is fairly well known Putin respects, and responds to, strength. I would surmise Trump is more likely simply throwing shit against the wall to see what sticks, then rinsing and repeating and attempting to course-correct based on feedback and/or popularity movement. Throw in his vacillations based on who's kissing his ass, and you have where we are now. IMO of course.

Also, remember, there can be lightyears between an agreement of terms and a term sheet - a lot of 11th-hour wriggling and repositioning.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 2/27/2025 at 8:21 PM, The San Diegan said:

Two thoughts - First, Putin is not as simply manipulated as is Trump, so I'm not sure puckering his pooper moves the needle. It is fairly well known Putin respects, and responds to, strength. I would surmise Trump is more likely simply throwing shit against the wall to see what sticks, then rinsing and repeating and attempting to course-correct based on feedback and/or popularity movement. Throw in his vacillations based on who's kissing his ass, and you have where we are now. IMO of course.

Also, remember, there can be lightyears between an agreement of terms and a term sheet - a lot of 11th-hour wriggling and repositioning.

Oh absolutely.  Macron and and Starmer knew EXACTLY how to play to Trump based on reports from the meetings.  They deserve credit for helping get to this point.

But I think we are at a point where all relevant parties have a path forward to claim a win.  Trump is trying to basically "buy" a peace deal the way he thinks he can buy anything.  350 billion and a large US presence to develop their economy on top of that is a MAJOR carrort and gets to tell his base "they got a great deal" while giving away so much money.  Russia gets to claim they liberated the territory they have seized and that the US respected their strength (which is a big face saving), Zelensky get's the largest single influx of aid and promises of development.  Trump gets to claim he is a deal maker extraordinaire.  Macron and Starmer can hold their heads high and show their citizens "Yeah, I told you I could handle Trump".

I'm really, really hopeful but understand it can all go sideways with two folks like Trump and Putin.  

But these are good developments that show hope.  

 

[halfmanhalfbronco]

"The British prime minister had said earlier that the UK was prepared to send troops to Ukraine after the war as part of a peacekeeping force but only if the US, Nato's leading member, provided a "backstop".

Asked if the US would aid British peacekeepers if they were attacked by Russia, Trump said: "The British have incredible soldiers, incredible military and they can take care of themselves. But if they need help, I'll always be with the British, okay?"

Nato's Article 5 holds that Nato members will come to the defence of an ally which comes under attack.

Praising Trump's "personal commitment to bring peace" in Ukraine, Sir Keir said the UK was "ready to put boots on the ground and planes in the air to support a deal".

"We're focused now on bringing an enduring end to the barbaric war in Ukraine," he said."

 

I thought that part was telling as well.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 2/27/2025 at 7:13 AM, azgreg said:

Listening to a piece on NPR yesterday it's not even that. The US gets half of the proceeds from rare earth mineral production and not the minerals themselves.

 

That's even better for Ukraine.  The US gets to do the very expensive heavy lifting to access them and Ukraine gets half the benefit.    

Talk about a sweet deal for Ukraine.  A cool 350 billion in aide and huge private sector outside investment they can capitalize on.

I feel it in my gut this is happening.  Peace is going to happen soon.

So much better than the Biden administration wanting a bloody war of attrition to be able to be carried on for years with no end in sight by forcing/pressuring Ukraine to draft 18-24 year old men which they absolutely did not want to do.  That was his plan.
 

This is better.  

[AztecAlien]

On 2/27/2025 at 8:54 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

That's even better for Ukraine.  The US gets to do the very expensive heavy lifting to access them and Ukraine gets half the benefit.    

Talk about a sweet deal for Ukraine.  A cool 350 billion in aide and huge private sector outside investment they can capitalize on.

I feel it in my gut this is happening.  Peace is going to happen soon.

So much better than the Biden administration wanting a bloody war of attrition to be able to be carried on for years with no end in sight by forcing/pressuring Ukraine to draft 18-24 year old men which they absolutely did not want to do.  That was his plan.
 

This is better.  

Additionally, I think that European NATO countries will stand up, raise their defense spending, and prevent Russia from moving into Western Europe or the Baltic region. 

What's your take on that? 

 

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 2/27/2025 at 9:15 PM, AztecAlien said:

Additionally, I think that European NATO countries will stand up, raise their defense spending, and prevent Russia from moving farther into Western Europe or the Baltic region.

What's your take on that? 

 

They are already pledging that.  These deals are already being promised.  And they want to BUY BUY BUY.  

These developments are all very positive for the security and prosperity of Ukraine, the security of Europe, and allowing us to refocus resources to more pressing issues while cost cutting at the same time.  Europe does not even seem mad about it.  Their initial humiliation that "they simply don't matter" was VALID.  And they get it.  They want to matter again.  

And most importantly, the day in day out death and suffering could be coming to a close.

Trump beating Biden COULD (key word) be the best thing that ever happened to Ukraine.

What a complete 180*.  

 

[415hawaiiboy 2.0]

On 2/27/2025 at 8:20 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

They are already pledging that.  These deals are already being promised.  And they want to BUY BUY BUY.  

These developments are all very positive for the security and prosperity of Ukraine, the security of Europe, and allowing us to refocus resources to more pressing issues while cost cutting at the same time.  Europe does not even seem mad about it.  Their initial humiliation that "they simply don't matter" was VALID.  And they get it.  They want to matter again.  

And most importantly, the day in day out death and suffering could be coming to a close.

Trump beating Biden COULD (key word) be the best thing that ever happened to Ukraine.

What a complete 180*.  

 

I will give Trump credit if this happens.  But, a resource deal was floated before the election and they didn’t pursue, mainly because they wanted this option on the table for the new King to think it’s his idea.  Also, unfortunately, there had to be 3 years of warfare to get to this point of exhaustion.  At least Ukraine held on.  

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 2/27/2025 at 10:21 PM, 415hawaiiboy 2.0 said:

I will give Trump credit if this happens.  But, a resource deal was floated before the election and they didn’t pursue, mainly because they wanted this option on the table for the new King to think it’s his idea.  Also, unfortunately, there had to be 3 years of warfare to get to this point of exhaustion.  At least Ukraine held on.  

You also have to keep in mind that Europe was preparing for another win by the democrats and the end of Trump.

Biden refused to even contemplate trying to negotiate or force a peace deal.  His entire shit was that Ukraine needed to step up their losses and dread and sorrow even further by increasing the support of their draft.  That was it.  The Biden administration only had one path they were willing to consider, continuing to deplete our reserves of arms at the huge costs of their needed replacement while pressuring Ukraine to further mobilize their young men they absolutely did not want to.  Just to prolong a war that they not only could not win, but just to maybe hold serve and lose ground at a slower pace.  Biden and his admin wanted this shit to go on for years and years more and FUCK what Ukrainians think.  FUCK the fact they do not want to mobilize their youngest adult men at force.  FUCK the fact they did not want a years longer war of attrition

Trump wants to get shit done and done fast so the violence ends.  While giving them buckets of money too impossible to say no to.  I mean fuck those bombed out ghettos you getting BAAAAANK from daddy Trump.

This is a far, far, far, far better approach.  For, you know, humanity and the ease of suffering and violence and also being pragmatic.

I know how hard it is to admit that maybe, JUST MAYBE, Trump winning the election was better for Ukraine....but yeahh.....

 

[halfmanhalfbronco]

People are not realizing just how much power this could give Ukraine.  Just how much money beyond the 350 billion.

This potential deal is a windfall the likes of which no developing country has ever received.  While also increasing their hard power.

If it even buys a 2 year peace on the surface, two years with that much money and foreign investment would make them an actual European power.  They would be THE buttress to the west.

If Ukraine could improve their capability from 2014 to 2021 with a pathetic fraction of that support...imagine what they could do with a few years WITH that support?  Russia would not ever dare.  We will be turning Ukraine into the most pissed off fortress with ability just fucking CRUSH any attempted further Russian aggression.  And we would have the US heavily invested.

We don't need to give them article 5 rights in other terms.  We need to invest the absolute fuck out of them.  Make Ukraine rich.  Make them whole.  Make them our little brother.

It's better than a NATO deal.  It's fucking MOOOONEEEEY.  Huge money.  Huge investment, and the US exploring and working on what "we are owed".

Russian aggression would be fucked.

And again this is all SOOOO MUCH BETTER than what the Biden admin was pushing.  They were pushing a never ending war and getting pissed at Ukraine for not changing their draft.

@AlpineSummer saw you reading this thread.  Any thoughts?  Any thoughts on the incredible nuance game that Trump and his team is winning compared to Biden?  Cus, you know, nuance is important.

Love ya

 

[The San Diegan]

On 2/27/2025 at 7:31 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Oh absolutely.  Macron and and Starmer knew EXACTLY how to play to Trump based on reports from the meetings.  They deserve credit for helping get to this point.

But I think we are at a point where all relevant parties have a path forward to claim a win.  Trump is trying to basically "buy" a peace deal the way he thinks he can buy anything.  350 billion and a large US presence to develop their economy on top of that is a MAJOR carrort and gets to tell his base "they got a great deal" while giving away so much money.  Russia gets to claim they liberated the territory they have seized and that the US respected their strength (which is a big face saving), Zelensky get's the largest single influx of aid and promises of development.  Trump gets to claim he is a deal maker extraordinaire.  Macron and Starmer can hold their heads high and show their citizens "Yeah, I told you I could handle Trump".

I'm really, really hopeful but understand it can all go sideways with two folks like Trump and Putin.  

But these are good developments that show hope.  

 

Honestly, Russia doesn't deserve a win. They don't deserve jack fucking shit other than a regime change.

[The San Diegan]

On 2/27/2025 at 8:15 PM, AztecAlien said:

Additionally, I think that European NATO countries will stand up, raise their defense spending, and prevent Russia from moving into Western Europe or the Baltic region. 

What's your take on that? 

 

Provided they maintain solidarity, I think they are more than capable of outspending Russia on defense spending and providing an adequate deterrent to make further aggression unlikely. 

However, given enough time, Putin will chip away and drive wedges within the alliance. We were always the singular actor capable of single-handedly holding the alliance together.