Tariffs & the Market - Brace yourselves & your portfolio's

[tailingpermit]

On 3/12/2025 at 12:53 PM, mysfit said:

I don't suppose anyone would do us the favor of imposing a 100% tariffs on Teslas

 

Focus your hate on @mugtang, he’s a Tesla lover. 

[CPslograd]

On 3/12/2025 at 1:54 PM, tailingpermit said:

Focus your hate on @mugtang, he’s a Tesla lover. 

Teslas are dumb.

To your point, when you really dig into it a lot of the problems in the world are Mugs fault

[tailingpermit]

On 3/12/2025 at 5:02 PM, CPslograd said:

Teslas are dumb.

To your point, when you really dig into it a lot of the problems in the world are Mugs fault

Agreed on both counts!

We had to move our family to another website, all @mugtang’s fault!

[InnZoneU]

On 3/12/2025 at 2:02 PM, CPslograd said:

Teslas are dumb.

To your point, when you really dig into it a lot of the problems in the world are Mugs fault

One just got sank (or is it sunk) in Ventura Harbor yesterday trying to launch a jet ski.  Oh shit I put it in reverse instead of drive!  LMFAOOOOO.

I thought they floated.  Elon said they did.  More proof only absolute morans own these trashcans.

 

[azgreg]

On 3/12/2025 at 1:52 PM, tailingpermit said:

True, but she’s doing far better than I thought a 27 year old would. 

Remember when on day 1 she said she'd never lie? Good times.....good times.

 

[tailingpermit]

On 3/12/2025 at 5:56 PM, azgreg said:

Remember when on day 1 she said she'd never lie? Good times.....good times.

 

I don’t understand why the press corp can’t remind her of the “condoms for Hamas” daily. 

[renoskier]

On 3/12/2025 at 2:02 PM, CPslograd said:

Teslas are dumb.

To your point, when you really dig into it a lot of the problems in the world are Mugs fault

 

On 3/12/2025 at 2:06 PM, tailingpermit said:

Agreed on both counts!

We had to move our family to another website, all @mugtang’s fault!

FIRE MUGTANG!!

[SharkTanked]

This is when I revolt. Where's my buffalo headdress at?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/bad-news-american-beer-drinkers-aluminium-tariffs-kick-andy-home-2025-03-12/

Commentary: Bad news for American beer drinkers as aluminium tariffs kick in

By Andy Home

March 12, 20258:10 AM PDT

 

LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - First some good news for U.S. aluminium buyers. President Donald Trump has backed off from his threat to hit imports of Canadian metal with a huge 50% tariff.

Now for the bad news. As of today they will be paying a 25% import tariff, not just for Canadian metal but for all aluminium products from all countries.

Market pricing has already shifted to reflect the Trump administration's doubling-down on tariffs as a way of reviving domestic smelting capacity.

...

TARIFF HANGOVER

Trump's original 2018 tariffs on aluminium were set at 10% and within a year the Beer Institute, which represents the nearly 8,000 brewers in the United States, estimated they had already cost the industry an extra $250 million, opens new tab.

A report by consultancy Harbor Aluminum found that $50 million had gone to the U.S. Treasury, $27 million to domestic smelters and $173 million to the fabricators who convert metal to aluminium sheet for beer cans.

What really irked the Beer Institute was that the import tariff was being passed through even though U.S. cansheet typically contains around 70% recycled metal sourced domestically.

But that's how tariffs tend to work.

Just ask European aluminium buyers. The European Union also imposes import tariffs ranging from 3% on primary aluminium to 6% on some alloys.

Researchers from the LUISS University of Rome studied the impact on consumers and in a 2019 paper, opens new tab found that even though duty-exempt metal accounted for around half of all European Union imports, everyone ended up paying 6% anyway.

Producers are incentivised to "align their prices to the highest possible level - that is, the duty-paid price," the researchers wrote.

The Beer Institute's follow-on research in 2022, opens new tab confirmed this harsh economic reality, finding that even with exemptions for key suppliers such as Canada, beer makers were still paying the full import tariff for their can metal. The cost at that stage had risen to $1.4 billion.

...

The aluminium sector directly employs more than 164,000 workers but only 4,000 are engaged in upstream metal production, according to the U.S. Aluminum Association.

 

Those four smelters produced 670,000 metric tons of metal in 2024, compared with U.S. consumption of around 4.9 million tons.

Imports of primary metal totaled almost 4.0 million tons, of which 70% came from Canadian smelters.

It's hard to see how that dynamic is going to change any time soon. Even if all the currently idled smelting capacity of around one million tons per year returned to production - a big "if" given the age and cost structure of the four mothballed plants - it would still leave a big import dependency gap.

Century Aluminum's (CENX.O), opens new tab proposed new smelter is years away and the company hasn't yet found a source of competitively priced power to feed the plant's electrolysis process.

There is much more potential to lift domestic production from domestic scrap but as long as even one ton of extra imported metal is needed to meet domestic consumption, you can be sure that the tariffs will continue to determine the end price for American buyers.

 

 

 

[SDSUfan]

 

[Sactowndog]

On 3/12/2025 at 3:35 PM, SharkTanked said:

This is when I revolt. Where's my buffalo headdress at?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/bad-news-american-beer-drinkers-aluminium-tariffs-kick-andy-home-2025-03-12/

Commentary: Bad news for American beer drinkers as aluminium tariffs kick in

By Andy Home

March 12, 20258:10 AM PDT

 

LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) - First some good news for U.S. aluminium buyers. President Donald Trump has backed off from his threat to hit imports of Canadian metal with a huge 50% tariff.

Now for the bad news. As of today they will be paying a 25% import tariff, not just for Canadian metal but for all aluminium products from all countries.

Market pricing has already shifted to reflect the Trump administration's doubling-down on tariffs as a way of reviving domestic smelting capacity.

...

TARIFF HANGOVER

Trump's original 2018 tariffs on aluminium were set at 10% and within a year the Beer Institute, which represents the nearly 8,000 brewers in the United States, estimated they had already cost the industry an extra $250 million, opens new tab.

A report by consultancy Harbor Aluminum found that $50 million had gone to the U.S. Treasury, $27 million to domestic smelters and $173 million to the fabricators who convert metal to aluminium sheet for beer cans.

What really irked the Beer Institute was that the import tariff was being passed through even though U.S. cansheet typically contains around 70% recycled metal sourced domestically.

But that's how tariffs tend to work.

Just ask European aluminium buyers. The European Union also imposes import tariffs ranging from 3% on primary aluminium to 6% on some alloys.

Researchers from the LUISS University of Rome studied the impact on consumers and in a 2019 paper, opens new tab found that even though duty-exempt metal accounted for around half of all European Union imports, everyone ended up paying 6% anyway.

Producers are incentivised to "align their prices to the highest possible level - that is, the duty-paid price," the researchers wrote.

The Beer Institute's follow-on research in 2022, opens new tab confirmed this harsh economic reality, finding that even with exemptions for key suppliers such as Canada, beer makers were still paying the full import tariff for their can metal. The cost at that stage had risen to $1.4 billion.

...

The aluminium sector directly employs more than 164,000 workers but only 4,000 are engaged in upstream metal production, according to the U.S. Aluminum Association.

 

Those four smelters produced 670,000 metric tons of metal in 2024, compared with U.S. consumption of around 4.9 million tons.

Imports of primary metal totaled almost 4.0 million tons, of which 70% came from Canadian smelters.

It's hard to see how that dynamic is going to change any time soon. Even if all the currently idled smelting capacity of around one million tons per year returned to production - a big "if" given the age and cost structure of the four mothballed plants - it would still leave a big import dependency gap.

Century Aluminum's (CENX.O), opens new tab proposed new smelter is years away and the company hasn't yet found a source of competitively priced power to feed the plant's electrolysis process.

There is much more potential to lift domestic production from domestic scrap but as long as even one ton of extra imported metal is needed to meet domestic consumption, you can be sure that the tariffs will continue to determine the end price for American buyers.

 

 

 

Doesn’t matter.  Trump will just cook the numbers (like he has in every other org he runs) and just tell people prices have fallen. 
 

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/11/nx-s1-5323155/economic-data-reliability-trump-howard-lutnick
 

 

[azgreg]

 

[HR_poke]

Got word today that a drone based lidar we are trying to buy is going up in price 20% because of tariffs...  I'm shocked that the American consumer will bear the brunt of the tariffs.....  /sarcasm...

[mysfit]

Tariffs = federal sales tax

On select items

[SharkTanked]

On 3/13/2025 at 9:50 AM, HR_poke said:

Got word today that a drone based lidar we are trying to buy is going up in price 20% because of tariffs...  I'm shocked that the American consumer will bear the brunt of the tariffs.....  /sarcasm...

Sounds elitist.

[HR_poke]

On 3/13/2025 at 11:58 AM, SharkTanked said:

Sounds elitist.

probably.

[AlpineSummer]

What a fucknut.  200%!

Kafkaesque is feeling like an understatement. Lmafao.

[SharkTanked]

On 3/13/2025 at 4:06 PM, AlpineSummer said:

What a fucknut.  200%!

Kafkaesque is feeling like an understatement. Lmafao.

https://apnews.com/live/trump-presidency-updates-3-13-2025#00000195-90c2-d183-a7bd-dae3679d0000

A previously untariffed $15 bottle of Italian Prosecco could cost $45 in U.S.

By AAMER MADHANI, JOSH BOAK

That’s if Trump follows through on his threat to impose 200% tariffs on European liquor and wine in response to Europe’s tax on American bourbon, itself a retaliation to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs.

“This ongoing tariff war doesn’t just harm importers — it weakens domestic brands, disrupts distributors, and squeezes retailers who rely on global selections,” said Holly Seidewand, owner of First Fill Spirits in Saratoga Springs, New York. “In the end, consumers will bear the brunt of it all.”

Gabriel Picard, who heads the French Federation of Exporters of Wines and Spirits, said 200% tariffs would be “a hammer blow” to a U.S. market worth $4.3 billion annually for French exporters alone. “All exports to the United States will come to a total, total, halt,” Picard told The Associated Press.

[FresnoFacts]

Somebody at Tesla sent an unsigned company letter to US trade representative Jamieson Greer saying it could be harmed in a trade war. 

Apparently no one signed it to minimize the possibility of Musk's or Trump's retaliation on the individual.

"U.S. exporters are inherently exposed to disproportionate impacts when other countries respond to U.S. trade actions," Tesla said in a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative's Office. "For example, past trade actions by the United States have resulted in immediate reactions by the targeted countries, including increased tariffs on EVs imported into those countries.

Tesla warned that even with aggressive localization of the supply chain, "certain parts and components are difficult or impossible to source within the United States.""

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-warns-trump-administration-it-is-exposed-retaliatory-tariffs-ft-reports-2025-03-13/

[AlpineSummer]

On 3/13/2025 at 5:56 PM, SharkTanked said:

https://apnews.com/live/trump-presidency-updates-3-13-2025#00000195-90c2-d183-a7bd-dae3679d0000

A previously untariffed $15 bottle of Italian Prosecco could cost $45 in U.S.

By AAMER MADHANI, JOSH BOAK

That’s if Trump follows through on his threat to impose 200% tariffs on European liquor and wine in response to Europe’s tax on American bourbon, itself a retaliation to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs.

“This ongoing tariff war doesn’t just harm importers — it weakens domestic brands, disrupts distributors, and squeezes retailers who rely on global selections,” said Holly Seidewand, owner of First Fill Spirits in Saratoga Springs, New York. “In the end, consumers will bear the brunt of it all.”

Gabriel Picard, who heads the French Federation of Exporters of Wines and Spirits, said 200% tariffs would be “a hammer blow” to a U.S. market worth $4.3 billion annually for French exporters alone. “All exports to the United States will come to a total, total, halt,” Picard told The Associated Press.

I'm just glad I'm at a bit under 20% cash now.  Waiting for more chaos before putting about half that in equities. 

[retrofade]