Jump to content
WCSBoard

196-foot asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1.3% chance of hitting earth somewhere in the equatorial zone in Dec 2032


Recommended Posts

Posted

Odds have since been recalculated to have increased to 1-in-76. From Space.com:

Quote

 

A newly discovered asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth in December of 2032. The asteroid is estimated to be 196 feet (60 meters) wide, and it is currently 27 million miles away.

The near-Earth object (NEO) discovered in 2024, which is around half as wide as a football field is long, will make a very close approach to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. It's estimated to come within around 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) of Earth on that day, according to NASA's Center of NEO Studies (CNEOS). However, when orbital uncertainties are considered, that close approach could turn out to be a direct hit on our planet.

Such an impact could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, called an "airburst," or could cause an impact crater when it slams into the ground.

 

giyVpy8xSr278LmdQYStpL-1200-80.png.webp

Link

Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 9:55 AM, The San Diegan said:

Odds have since been recalculated to have increased to 1-in-76. From Space.com:

giyVpy8xSr278LmdQYStpL-1200-80.png.webp

Link

Trump has the power to move these things with a Sharpie pen, and yes he or Baron will be president in 2032

  • Haha 1
Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 9:58 AM, AztecAlien said:

That asteroid has a better chance at wiping us out then AOC's 0% chance claims of we're all going to die by 2032 because of climate change. :ph34r: 

Climate change has been identified as one of the top five threats to our national security since the W administration.

giphy.gif

  • Like 1
Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 11:05 AM, The San Diegan said:

Climate change has been identified as one of the top five threats to our national security since the W administration.

giphy.gif

Humans won't be around because they'll kill each other off about 249,999,900 years prior. Maybe sooner.  

https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/see/news/article/5694/extreme-heat-likely-to-cause-next-mass-extinction

"Although human-induced climate change and global warming is likely to be a growing cause of heat stress and mortality in some regions, research suggests the planet should largely remain habitable until this seismic landmass change in the deep future. But when the supercontinent forms, findings indicate only somewhere between 8% and 16% of land would be habitable for mammals." 

  • Like 1
Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 10:17 AM, AztecAlien said:

Humans won't be around because they'll kill each other off about 249,999,900 years prior. 

https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/see/news/article/5694/extreme-heat-likely-to-cause-next-mass-extinction

"Although human-induced climate change and global warming is likely to be a growing cause of heat stress and mortality in some regions, research suggests the planet should largely remain habitable until this seismic landmass change in the deep future. But when the supercontinent forms, findings indicate only somewhere between 8% and 16% of land would be habitable for mammals." 

You're only omitting all the important reasons why the DoD has considered climate change to be one of the top 5 threats to our national security for over 20 years. 🙄 Consider it a great opportunity for you to fill an empty cup, my man.

 

Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 11:23 AM, The San Diegan said:

You're only omitting all the important reasons why the DoD has considered climate change to be one of the top 5 threats to our national security for over 20 years. 🙄 Consider it a great opportunity for you to fill an empty cup, my man.

 

I believe others aspects, including an asteroid, and what's going on throughout the world is a much greater risk to the U.S. national security and human existence than the current rate of climate change and global warming. 

Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 9:10 AM, azgreg said:

Can they move it up to today?

 

Can we divert it to hit the Chiefs - Eagles game next Sunday?  Sorry New Orleans, it needed to be done.

Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 9:10 AM, azgreg said:

Can they move it up to today?

 

When you're waiting for the asteroid to hit and end it all, what better way to toast the end of time than by quaffing a few ..............

 CRAFTHAUS BREWERY CELEBRATES REBEL SPIRIT - Issuu

  • Cheers 1
Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 11:56 AM, UNLV2001 said:

When you're waiting for the asteroid to hit and end it all, what better way to toast the end of time than by quaffing a few ..............

 CRAFTHAUS BREWERY CELEBRATES REBEL SPIRIT - Issuu

This shit is better.

basic.jpg

  • Haha 4
  • Vomit 1
Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 12:04 PM, azgreg said:

This shit is better.

basic.jpg

Your beer consumption concern's me as a connoisseur of fine craft beer 

Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 10:28 AM, AztecAlien said:

I believe others aspects, including an asteroid, and what's going on throughout the world is a much greater risk to the U.S. national security and human existence than the current rate of climate change and global warming. 

You mean like the runaway melt that is occurring in Greenland or Antartica?

Land-Ice-Greenland.png

There is enough land ice in Greenland alone to raise sea levels 20'. The resultant population displacement form a fraction of that level of sea rise would be disastrous for both the national and global economy.

Now let's talk about how Arctic ice melt and mean warming of SST's are impacting the AMOC - the convection current upon which entire food chains depend: 

Quote

 

"According to recent research, the probability of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) current coming to a complete halt within the next century is considered "medium confidence" by scientists, with some studies estimating a 95% chance of collapse happening between 2025 and 2095, though there is still significant uncertainty and debate regarding the exact timing and likelihood of such an event." 

 

I sincerely doubt there is a "medium confidence" assessment of a similarly-sized asteroid (to YT4) impacting earth with a 95% probability of occurrence.

Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 1:24 PM, The San Diegan said:

You mean like the runaway melt that is occurring in Greenland or Antartica?

Land-Ice-Greenland.png

There is enough land ice in Greenland alone to raise sea levels 20'. The resultant population displacement form a fraction of that level of sea rise would be disastrous for both the national and global economy.

Now let's talk about how Arctic ice melt and mean warming of SST's are impacting the AMOC - the convection current upon which entire food chains depend: 

I sincerely doubt there is a "medium confidence" assessment of a similarly-sized asteroid (to YT4) impacting earth with a 95% probability of occurrence.

The extinction of humans will occur long before the current effects of global warming. More consequences will result from the ongoing use of hazardous chemicals, that are poisoning watersheds and destroying the oceans than from global warming. We perish if the oceans die.

In the future, humans will create more severe diseases and pandemics in the name of research, which will contribute to the end of human existence, long before the end of the world's population due to global warming, I believe humanity will develop a superbug in the near future. And seeing how the earth is billions of years old, the near future could mean 50 to 1,000 years. 

The threat of our enemies, and world wide nuclear war are at play when talking about national security and discussing the extinction of the human race long before the present-day rate of climate change and global warming. 

And a simple question that the alarmist don't like to answer. Where did the ice go that covered the Northern Hemisphere just 11,000 to 12,000 years ago?

Humans are playing a part in regarding heat stress on the earth. I'm not arguing that and haven't. But we won't be around long enough for that being the demise of the human race. 

As you stated in another thread, we are not going to agree on this subject, and that's fine. 

 

Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 12:36 PM, AztecAlien said:

The extinction of humans will occur long before the current effects of global warming. More consequences will result from the ongoing use of hazardous chemicals that are poisoning watersheds and destroying the oceans than from global warming. We perish if the oceans die.

In the future, humans will create more severe diseases and pandemics in the name of research, which will contribute to the end of human existence, long before the end of the world's population due to global warming, I believe humanity will develop a superbug in the near future. And seeing how the earth is billions of years old, the near future could mean 50 to 1,000 years. 

The threat of our enemies, and world wide nuclear war are at play when talking about national security and discussing the extinction of the human race long before the present-day rate of climate change and global warming. 

And a simple question that the alarmist don't like to answer. Where did the ice go that covered the Northern Hemisphere just 11,000 years ago? 

As you stated in another thread, we are not going to agree on this subject, and that's fine. 

 

I get the threat posed by polluting our watersheds and oceans. I also think we're on the precipice as a species and to your point, there are several EOTWAWKI scenarios that are probabilistically more likely to occur first (e.g., a nuclear exchange, pandemic, etc). But that being said, to simply write off the threat of climate change as a national security issue is foolish to the nth, as it presents as much of a threat as a force-multiplier to exacerbate other threats as it does a direct threat itself. 

And to be direct about it, the highlighted statement is complete bullshit.

First off, we're already realizing the effects of global warming, as evidenced by the fact that the present rate of sea level rise is unprecedented in the last 2,500 years, and as discussed in the LA fires thread, climate change is already having a huge impact with regards to the size of wildfires - these are not even in dispute.

In fact, it's not only the wildfires being driven by stronger winds; the average wind strength of hurricanes is also increasing over the past half-century:

download-2.png.webp

And again - the traceability of this effect to mean global warming is very straight forward and simple - at least provided you have a working understanding of the First Law of Thermodynamics - as we know that greenhouse gasses trap additional heat in the atmosphere, and we know that our activities generate greenhouse gasses.

I mean, the causal relationship is beyond basic, ffs, at least to anyone who paid half a shit of attention in HS physics for the first two weeks. 😂

 

Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 2:03 PM, The San Diegan said:

I get the threat posed by polluting our watersheds and oceans. I also think we're on the precipice as a species and to your point, there are several EOTWAWKI scenarios that are probabilistically more likely to occur first (e.g., a nuclear exchange, pandemic, etc). But that being said, to simply write off the threat of climate change as a national security issue is foolish to the nth, as it presents as much of a threat as a force-multiplier to exacerbate other threats as it does a direct threat itself. 

And to be direct about it, the highlighted statement is complete bullshit.

First off, we're already realizing the effects of global warming, as evidenced by the fact that the present rate of sea level rise is unprecedented in the last 2,500 years, and as discussed in the LA fires thread, climate change is already having a huge impact with regards to the size of wildfires - these are not even in dispute.

In fact, it's not only the wildfires being driven by stronger winds; the average wind strength of hurricanes is also increasing over the past half-century:

download-2.png.webp

And again - the traceability of this effect to mean global warming is very straight forward and simple - at least provided you have a working understanding of the First Law of Thermodynamics - as we know that greenhouse gasses trap additional heat in the atmosphere, and we know that our activities generate greenhouse gasses.

I mean, the causal relationship is beyond basic, ffs, at least to anyone who paid half a shit of attention in HS physics for the first two weeks. 😂

 

We are not in agreement regarding the recent wildfires either. The population of California in 1850 when it became a state was 90,000. It's now 40 million that are documented. People let wildfires and forest fires in the past burn themselves out because they were beneficial and nature's way of forest management. Over time, fires become more destructive because of more loss of life and economic loss due to population growth and urban sprawl. The Kitchen Creek Fire that happened in San Diego County nearly 60 years ago when the Santa Ana winds produce 100 mph wind gusts only destroyed 300+ structures. If that fire happened today, you'd have 20,000 destroyed, 10,000 in Alpine alone.

Urban sprawl also has a devastating effect on ecosystems as well. So yeah, definitely human caused. 

There's a lot of hypocrisy with the radical alarmists as well. I still see plenty of gas-guzzling vehicles being driven throughout the entire State of California. There was a thread either here, or on the MWCBoard where many of the global warming posters were bragging about their trucks and even provided pictures. 

And for all the other creatures that benefit from living on earth, except for human beings, I'm rooting for the asteroid.  

Until another time... 

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...