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Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 4:23 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Man if UNLV does join the Pac-12 (which I'm OK with), there's going to be some serious backpedaling by some people who frequent these boards. 

I believe UNLV will eventually end up in the PAC. Shooting for the Big12 is a longshot worth taking but realistically nobody else is moving up and eventually all the top G6 schools will end up in 1 or 2 conferences, probably the PAC and AAC.

I still think a lot of PAC fans are overestimating how non-fans will view the new PAC even if the Rebels join. I'm just not seeing a number big enough to pry Memphis or Tulane out of the AAC.

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 7:15 PM, pomf said:

I believe UNLV will eventually end up in the PAC. Shooting for the Big12 is a longshot worth taking but realistically nobody else is moving up and eventually all the top G6 schools will end up in 1 or 2 conferences, probably the PAC and AAC.

I still think a lot of PAC fans are overestimating how non-fans will view the new PAC even if the Rebels join. I'm just not seeing a number big enough to pry Memphis or Tulane out of the AAC.

Don't need them if UNLV comes aboard, especially if partnered with Nevada. And I don't want them (MSU and TU) anyway. 

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Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 10:13 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Don't need them if UNLV comes aboard, especially if partnered with Nevada. And I don't want them (MSU and TU) anyway. 

And bring in New Mexico for hoops and we’ll call it a day 😆

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Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 9:13 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Don't need them if UNLV comes aboard, especially if partnered with Nevada. And I don't want them (MSU and TU) anyway. 

While I appreciate the confidence in UNLV I still think it'd make good business sense to try and cripple the AAC by stealing at least one of them.

OSU/WSU/BSU/UNLV/FSU/CSU/SDSU/USU/TxSt vs Army/Navy/Air Force/TU/Memphis/UTSA/UNT/ECU/USF

Is still close enough that you risk a comparable AAC team stealing a playoff spot. Peeling a couple of the AAC's best would leave no doubt about what the best non-power conference was most seasons.

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 10:13 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Don't need them if UNLV comes aboard, especially if partnered with Nevada. And I don't want them (MSU and TU) anyway. 

Realistically, if UNLV leaves for the Pac, the entire MWC collapses. Most likely pressure to take Nevada as well. AF will leave for the AAC. My guess is that UNM's new AD will do everything he can to try and get UNM into the AAC as the 16th team. Not sure what happens with Wyoming. The entire thing is fucked. 

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 11:47 PM, pomf said:

While I appreciate the confidence in UNLV I still think it'd make good business sense to try and cripple the AAC by stealing at least one of them.

OSU/WSU/BSU/UNLV/FSU/CSU/SDSU/USU/TxSt vs Army/Navy/Air Force/TU/Memphis/UTSA/UNT/ECU/USF

Is still close enough that you risk a comparable AAC team stealing a playoff spot. Peeling a couple of the AAC's best would leave no doubt about what the best non-power conference was most seasons.

There isn't enough financial incentive for AAC teams to move into Mountain and Pacific time zones imo. The TV deal simply won't add enough for them to justify it.

Posted
On 1/28/2025 at 7:48 AM, PTR said:

Realistically, if UNLV leaves for the Pac, the entire MWC collapses. Most likely pressure to take Nevada as well. AF will leave for the AAC. My guess is that UNM's new AD will do everything he can to try and get UNM into the AAC as the 16th team. Not sure what happens with Wyoming. The entire thing is fucked. 

Yeah, I was going to mention that if AFA and UNLV leave the MW, I could see UNM making a very hard push for the AAC. Or UNM can be the big dogs in the MW with weaker teams? Either scenario is very depressing as a UNM fan. Hopefully UNLV holds the line and we can continue together in the MW.

Posted
On 1/28/2025 at 7:48 AM, PTR said:

Realistically, if UNLV leaves for the Pac, the entire MWC collapses. Most likely pressure to take Nevada as well. AF will leave for the AAC. My guess is that UNM's new AD will do everything he can to try and get UNM into the AAC as the 16th team. Not sure what happens with Wyoming. The entire thing is fucked. 

It would depend on how much money the MW was able to get from the PAC 12 teams if the MW stays intact or not. 

Posted
On 1/28/2025 at 8:16 AM, Swedish said:

Yeah, I was going to mention that if AFA and UNLV leave the MW, I could see UNM making a very hard push for the AAC. Or UNM can be the big dogs in the MW with weaker teams? Either scenario is very depressing as a UNM fan. Hopefully UNLV holds the line and we can continue together in the MW.

In that scenario, while it's probably not ideal geographically or culturally, it would be AAC or bust for UNM. Whatever assurances or reduced payouts that they would commit to would need to be done. The alternative would be really bad for both football and basketball. 

Posted
On 1/28/2025 at 8:22 AM, Wyobraska said:

It would depend on how much money the MW was able to get from the PAC 12 teams if the MW stays intact or not. 

At some point though, you have to have viable teams connected to that money. There simply arent enough western teams to pair with Wyoming, UNM, and SJSU to rebuild the conference and if they did, it would be a terrible conference. 

Posted
On 1/28/2025 at 7:48 AM, PTR said:

Realistically, if UNLV leaves for the Pac, the entire MWC collapses. Most likely pressure to take Nevada as well. AF will leave for the AAC. My guess is that UNM's new AD will do everything he can to try and get UNM into the AAC as the 16th team. Not sure what happens with Wyoming. The entire thing is fucked. 

Agree, if UNLV leaves for the PAC along with Nevada, NEW Mexico is likely going to the AAC with Air Force 

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 10:13 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Don't need them if UNLV comes aboard, especially if partnered with Nevada. And I don't want them (MSU and TU) anyway. 

Aren't the smaller Rev Schools what that Pac wants to get away from ?

If PAC expansion stalls, I think UNM would be a sneaky good invite. Big DMA, easy to get to. Close for TSU. Good basketball, a PAC cash infusion would help the FB program. 

It's all about the math for them and UNLV. Even if the MW keeps all the exit/poaching fees, 9% of the $155 mil, is ~ $14 mil. Add in $20 mil in exit fees and the Pac money needs to exceed MW money by $35 mil to make it happen.

For UNLV, the Pac needs to exceed  $60 mil in revenue difference.

My guess is all feels and penalties will be reduced by around 20% and that changes the math.

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 11:47 PM, pomf said:

While I appreciate the confidence in UNLV I still think it'd make good business sense to try and cripple the AAC by stealing at least one of them.

OSU/WSU/BSU/UNLV/FSU/CSU/SDSU/USU/TxSt vs Army/Navy/Air Force/TU/Memphis/UTSA/UNT/ECU/USF

Is still close enough that you risk a comparable AAC team stealing a playoff spot. Peeling a couple of the AAC's best would leave no doubt about what the best non-power conference was most seasons.

I'm going to disagree. A Conference full of good programs beats each other up. You end up with a mess of squads right around .500 in Conference play.  That means a Liberty or WMU can sneak into the CFP despite playing in a weaker league.

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Posted
On 1/28/2025 at 6:48 AM, PTR said:

Realistically, if UNLV leaves for the Pac, the entire MWC collapses. Most likely pressure to take Nevada as well. AF will leave for the AAC. My guess is that UNM's new AD will do everything he can to try and get UNM into the AAC as the 16th team. Not sure what happens with Wyoming. The entire thing is fucked. 

I really hope that doesn't happen, as losing UNM would be devastating on top of AFA and UNLV. Seven football members is a lot easier to rebuild from than six with the lack of options remaining. 

It's scary that this all is hinging on a lawsuit. The current membership is solid enough to be a decent G5 league, but we'd be as bad or worse as C-USA in this scenario.

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 6:29 PM, Droga said:

If UNLV ends up leaving for the PAC ( I doubt they will but if they do) i am guessing Air Force will follow suit and bolt for the AAC. If that happens the $6-$8mil per team that is being rumored will drop drastically.

Although i think these are just rumors being spread.by some PAC people because no other team that would increase the TV deal.for the PAC is interested. So PAC making a last ditch effort for UNLV before they have to settle for a team like Sac St or New Mexico St

You're quite correct in implying that AFA won't be joining UNLV in the nPAC. There are a number of reasons among which is the nPAC's goal of becoming a western version of the Big East and therefore a "power" conference in that sport. Adding AFA and its miserable basketball program would be antithetical to that.

You're also correct that no other school is interested in joining the nPAC. But that's right now and it's based on the nPAC's lowball offer of several months ago. If you read the realignment board, you'll see Memphis fans want out of the AAC and believe their school will join the nPAC if the income from the nPAC's coming TV deal would be north of $10M.

UNLV "last ditch effort"? You'll have to explain that one. No such effort has been made by the nPAC. Rather, its approach is one of dominos. IOW, to add one more football-playing school, likely TXST, while waiting to see the results of its litigation with the MWC. The latter factor could be huge because if the money owed to the MWC ends up being only half what the MWC seeks, the revenue coming to both UNLV and AFA won't be such a motivator to remain in rather than leaving for the nPAC and the AAC, respectively.

Posted
On 1/28/2025 at 11:48 AM, SleepingGiantFan said:

You're quite correct in implying that AFA won't be joining UNLV in the nPAC. There are a number of reasons among which is the nPAC's goal of becoming a western version of the Big East and therefore a "power" conference in that sport. Adding AFA and its miserable basketball program would be antithetical to that.

You're also correct that no other school is interested in joining the nPAC. But that's right now and it's based on the nPAC's lowball offer of several months ago. If you read the realignment board, you'll see Memphis fans want out of the AAC and believe their school will join the nPAC if the income from the nPAC's coming TV deal would be north of $10M.

UNLV "last ditch effort"? You'll have to explain that one. No such effort has been made by the nPAC. Rather, its approach is one of dominos. IOW, to add one more football-playing school, likely TXST, while waiting to see the results of its litigation with the MWC. The latter factor could be huge because if the money owed to the MWC ends up being only half what the MWC seeks, the revenue coming to both UNLV and AFA won't be such a motivator to remain in rather than leaving for the nPAC and the AAC, respectively.

I think the lack of interest is mutual for Air Force. They wouldn't have any interest in the Pac, they'll join the AAC if they leave.

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Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 9:13 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

Don't need them if UNLV comes aboard, especially if partnered with Nevada. And I don't want them (MSU and TU) anyway. 

If the PAC & UNLV are in talks, I'd be happy with Nevada coming along & leaving MSU & TU in the AAC 

Wouldn't mind New Mexico also in the picture 

Posted
On 1/28/2025 at 8:16 AM, Swedish said:

Yeah, I was going to mention that if AFA and UNLV leave the MW, I could see UNM making a very hard push for the AAC. Or UNM can be the big dogs in the MW with weaker teams? Either scenario is very depressing as a UNM fan. Hopefully UNLV holds the line and we can continue together in the MW.

Why would the leftovers run ? They will be sitting on a ton of exit and poaching fees. There are still six all sports Schools. They can get an extension to 2028 on membership. NMSU is FBS ready. Davis, Sac State, the Dakota's, or the Texas FCS targets can use the time to level up.

Even at half the stated exit and poaching fees, if managed properly, they could get to nine or ten and survive for over a decade. 

Posted
On 1/28/2025 at 8:29 AM, PTR said:

At some point though, you have to have viable teams connected to that money. There simply arent enough western teams to pair with Wyoming, UNM, and SJSU to rebuild the conference and if they did, it would be a terrible conference. 

Hawaii, UNR, and UTEP are already in the MW. NMSU, Davis and Sacto will fill out the MW nicely.

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