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Posted

The poaching penalties are considered anti-trust, making them null and void.

With that influx of cash, they grab some combination of UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, UConn and South Florida. (Possibly more - just depends on how big they want to get and who tv tells them to add.)

They get their $15-20M tv deal.

This makes them a basketball juggernaut - with 4+ bids guaranteed every year.

The AAC and MW are decimated, leaving the PAC as the unquestioned fifth best conference with the conference champion being a favorite for one of the conference championship spots.

Or - the MW, Sun Belt, Mac, CUSA and AAC decide to break off and do their own football playoff because the financial aspect is too out of whack, handing the fifth spot to the PAC every year.

Note: I'm not a lawyer and can't speak on the anti-trust aspects of the poaching.

  • Like 1
Posted
On 1/26/2025 at 1:40 PM, evilpoke said:

The poaching penalties are considered anti-trust, making them null and void.

With that influx of cash, they grab some combination of UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, UConn and South Florida. (Possibly more - just depends on how big they want to get and who tv tells them to add.)

They get their $15-20M tv deal.

This makes them a basketball juggernaut - with 4+ bids guaranteed every year.

The AAC and MW are decimated, leaving the PAC as the unquestioned fifth best conference with the conference champion being a favorite for one of the conference championship spots.

Or - the MW, Sun Belt, Mac, CUSA and AAC decide to break off and do their own football playoff because the financial aspect is too out of whack, handing the fifth spot to the PAC every year.

Note: I'm not a lawyer and can't speak on the anti-trust aspects of the poaching.

Bored?

Posted
On 1/26/2025 at 1:40 PM, evilpoke said:

The poaching penalties are considered anti-trust, making them null and void.

With that influx of cash, they grab some combination of UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, UConn and South Florida. (Possibly more - just depends on how big they want to get and who tv tells them to add.)

They get their $15-20M tv deal.

This makes them a basketball juggernaut - with 4+ bids guaranteed every year.

The AAC and MW are decimated, leaving the PAC as the unquestioned fifth best conference with the conference champion being a favorite for one of the conference championship spots.

Or - the MW, Sun Belt, Mac, CUSA and AAC decide to break off and do their own football playoff because the financial aspect is too out of whack, handing the fifth spot to the PAC every year.

Note: I'm not a lawyer and can't speak on the anti-trust aspects of the poaching.

@Spaztecs after reading this post. 

 

giphy (5).gif

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  • Haha 3
Posted
On 1/26/2025 at 1:40 PM, evilpoke said:

The poaching penalties are considered anti-trust, making them null and void.

With that influx of cash, they grab some combination of UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, UConn and South Florida. (Possibly more - just depends on how big they want to get and who tv tells them to add.)

They get their $15-20M tv deal.

This makes them a basketball juggernaut - with 4+ bids guaranteed every year.

The AAC and MW are decimated, leaving the PAC as the unquestioned fifth best conference with the conference champion being a favorite for one of the conference championship spots.

Or - the MW, Sun Belt, Mac, CUSA and AAC decide to break off and do their own football playoff because the financial aspect is too out of whack, handing the fifth spot to the PAC every year.

Note: I'm not a lawyer and can't speak on the anti-trust aspects of the poaching.

That is a possible scenario.

I've often thought that future Conferences will be built around revenue sharing and NIL levels.

If most the top G FB brands are in the MW, they will beat each other up. Will, the CFP accept a two loss Pac team over an undefeated best of the rest ? What if a three loss teams pulls an upset in the CCG ? 

I can see USF and UConn coming as FB only. 

I have heard a lot of internet noise saying the AAC's are not coming. Not even for $12 in media money. Maybe, $15. Geography, travel.

I think that's a good thing, not having all the power in one League.

Posted
On 1/26/2025 at 1:40 PM, evilpoke said:

The poaching penalties are considered anti-trust, making them null and void.

With that influx of cash, they grab some combination of UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, UConn and South Florida. (Possibly more - just depends on how big they want to get and who tv tells them to add.)

They get their $15-20M tv deal.

This makes them a basketball juggernaut - with 4+ bids guaranteed every year.

The AAC and MW are decimated, leaving the PAC as the unquestioned fifth best conference with the conference champion being a favorite for one of the conference championship spots.

Or - the MW, Sun Belt, Mac, CUSA and AAC decide to break off and do their own football playoff because the financial aspect is too out of whack, handing the fifth spot to the PAC every year.

Note: I'm not a lawyer and can't speak on the anti-trust aspects of the poaching.

Some Dude!!

Posted
On 1/26/2025 at 2:40 PM, evilpoke said:

The poaching penalties are considered anti-trust, making them null and void.

With that influx of cash, they grab some combination of UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, UConn and South Florida. (Possibly more - just depends on how big they want to get and who tv tells them to add.)

They get their $15-20M tv deal.

This makes them a basketball juggernaut - with 4+ bids guaranteed every year.

The AAC and MW are decimated, leaving the PAC as the unquestioned fifth best conference with the conference champion being a favorite for one of the conference championship spots.

Or - the MW, Sun Belt, Mac, CUSA and AAC decide to break off and do their own football playoff because the financial aspect is too out of whack, handing the fifth spot to the PAC every year.

Note: I'm not a lawyer and can't speak on the anti-trust aspects of the poaching.

And when I said I doubt the antitrust arguments would go far, I was told it wasn’t an antitrust argument. Yet here we are…

Posted

Bet Arizona odds on  Pac expansion. It correlates to what I have heard regarding the AAC Schools

College.          Odds       Percentage 

Texas State.    +150.    40.0%

UNLV.               +700.     12.5%

North Texas.   +900.     10.0%

UTSA.               +1100.    8.3%

Tulane.             +1250.    7.4%

Memphis.        +1250.    7.4%

Sac State.        +1750.    5.4%

The Field.         +1000.    9.1%

https://www.betarizona.com/college-football/pac-12-expansion

Posted

Lets say we grab TXST at their low entrance rate from the SBC to get to 8. Then if Memphis and Tulane is slow at the table and UTSA and UNT goes ahead and announces they will join the PAC at 10Mil each, This will give the PAC, three Texas schools, and since those two AAC schools aren't getting the same payout from the AAC already, this would be the Texas coup that the PAC will welcome. Having a connection with Dallas, San Marcos (Austin) and San Antonio will give eyeballs, recruitment beds and media value for the media deal. Memphis, Tulane, and USF better watch their backs, the Texas connection can leap frog you into nonexistance by your procrastination. If I was the Texas schools, I would be in communication with each other on this very topic. 

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 3:35 PM, Smithy said:

Lets say we grab TXST at their low entrance rate from the SBC to get to 8. Then if Memphis and Tulane is slow at the table and UTSA and UNT goes ahead and announces they will join the PAC at 10Mil each, This will give the PAC, three Texas schools, and since those two AAC schools aren't getting the same payout from the AAC already, this would be the Texas coup that the PAC will welcome. Having a connection with Dallas, San Marcos (Austin) and San Antonio will give eyeballs, recruitment beds and media value for the media deal. Memphis, Tulane, and USF better watch their backs, the Texas connection can leap frog you into non-existence by your procrastination. If I was the Texas schools, I would be in communication with each other on this very topic. 

 Per the TBM guys, TSU is happening. They are hammering out the details. The Pac media partners want a strong ctz presence. Unless, this a walk-off home run media deal, Tul-Phis are not coming. That leaves UNT and UTSA.

But, hold your horses, UNLV is still in the picture. Sources say they want in but are awaiting the media number as well. Current speculation is the difference between MW and Pac money will be in the $5 to $6 mil range.

The Pac is still saying they will announce their media deal in March, (no timeframe), and new members. Plural.

 

 

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 2:35 PM, Smithy said:

Lets say we grab TXST at their low entrance rate from the SBC to get to 8. Then if Memphis and Tulane is slow at the table and UTSA and UNT goes ahead and announces they will join the PAC at 10Mil each, This will give the PAC, three Texas schools,

"Instability, thy name is UNT." (That's Shakespeare, I believe.)

During the 28 football seasons since UNT left the realm of the independents in1996, the Mean Green has been a member of four different conferences. Using my marginal math skills, on average, UNT changes conferences every 7 years, with all changes being of the lateral variety. Why would that be? Well, another great writer once said, "One reason has to be UNT's dog-poopedness." (I think it was Homer Simpson.)

Conclusion: Adding UNT would be akin to adding New Mexico State or UTEP. (Oh that's right; some other conference already took the Minors.)

Posted
On 1/26/2025 at 1:40 PM, evilpoke said:

The poaching penalties are considered anti-trust, making them null and void.

With that influx of cash, they grab some combination of UNLV, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, UConn and South Florida. (Possibly more - just depends on how big they want to get and who tv tells them to add.)

They get their $15-20M tv deal.

This makes them a basketball juggernaut - with 4+ bids guaranteed every year.

The AAC and MW are decimated, leaving the PAC as the unquestioned fifth best conference with the conference champion being a favorite for one of the conference championship spots.

Or - the MW, Sun Belt, Mac, CUSA and AAC decide to break off and do their own football playoff because the financial aspect is too out of whack, handing the fifth spot to the PAC every year.

Note: I'm not a lawyer and can't speak on the anti-trust aspects of the poaching.

Just for clarification.  The poaching penalties are not considered anti-trust.  They are compensation for harming the MWC.  The 2Pac and the MWC set up a schedule of harm caused to the MWC brand and media income based on how many teams might leave.  Both sides agreed that $55 million was the fair number for five schools.  That was stupid on the MWC's part.  They agreed to a number to cure the harm, which made all of the exit fees purely punitive.  Now they have to figure out how to convince a court that they weren't really serious when they agreed to $55 million, and that they are somehow owed all of the five's exit fees as additional damages.  They won't, but they'll still collect more than the $55 million.  No anti-trust here.  It's merely settling on damages.  Probably about $80 million in total if they don't grab another MWC school.

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 5:49 PM, SleepingGiantFan said:

"Instability, thy name is UNT." (That's Shakespeare, I believe.)

During the 28 football seasons since UNT left the realm of the independents in1996, the Mean Green has been a member of four different conferences. Using my marginal math skills, on average, UNT changes conferences every 7 years, with all changes being of the lateral variety. Why would that be? Well, another great writer once said, "One reason has to be UNT's dog-poopedness." (I think it was Homer Simpson.)

Conclusion: Adding UNT would be akin to adding New Mexico State or UTEP. (Oh that's right; some other conference already took the Minors.)

UNT has invested heavily. They have Bowled seven of the last nine seasons. Their basketball is pretty good, they have five 20+ wins in 8 seasons, and one Tourney appearance. Dallas Metro.

The potential media partners want CST Schools.

Posted

If UNLV ends up leaving for the PAC ( I doubt they will but if they do) i am guessing Air Force will follow suit and bolt for the AAC. If that happens the $6-$8mil per team that is being rumored will drop drastically.

Although i think these are just rumors being spread.by some PAC people because no other team that would increase the TV deal.for the PAC is interested. So PAC making a last ditch effort for UNLV before they have to settle for a team like Sac St or New Mexico St

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Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 7:29 PM, Droga said:

If UNLV ends up leaving for the PAC ( I doubt they will but if they do) i am guessing Air Force will follow suit and bolt for the AAC. If that happens the $6-$8mil per team that is being rumored will drop drastically.

Although i think these are just rumors being spread.by some PAC people because no other team that would increase the TV deal.for the PAC is interested. So PAC making a last ditch effort for UNLV before they have to settle for a team like Sac St or New Mexico St

The Internet chatter with "sources" is $10 mil per School for the Pac. They're also saying there is a 5 to 6 mil difference to the MW. If AFA and UNLV bolt, that is another $40 mil in exit fees and $12 mil in poaching penalties. That's $202 mil. 

Even if they keep half and manage that money right, they could sustain the MW and its new members for over a decade at current levels.

The only way they settle for NMSU is if no one else is coming. They will get a half share for life. The closest Sac State will come to the Pac during the first media deal is a scheduling arrangement that will be all roadies.

Personally, if the media money is around $10 mil,  TSU is in. UNT and UTSA are on hold until 2027 when their exit fees will be $6 mil. 

If it is over $12 mil, that might sway UNLV.

Not a bad Conference. It is deeper than the AAC and the bottom half is stronger as well.

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 7:16 PM, Headbutt said:

Just for clarification.  The poaching penalties are not considered anti-trust.  They are compensation for harming the MWC.  The 2Pac and the MWC set up a schedule of harm caused to the MWC brand and media income based on how many teams might leave.  Both sides agreed that $55 million was the fair number for five schools.  That was stupid on the MWC's part.  They agreed to a number to cure the harm, which made all of the exit fees purely punitive.  Now they have to figure out how to convince a court that they weren't really serious when they agreed to $55 million, and that they are somehow owed all of the five's exit fees as additional damages.  They won't, but they'll still collect more than the $55 million.  No anti-trust here.  It's merely settling on damages.  Probably about $80 million in total if they don't grab another MWC school.

I thought a big part of the Pac's claim was that the poaching penalties were anti- competitive/ anti-trust?

Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 8:04 PM, evilpoke said:

I thought a big part of the Pac's claim was that the poaching penalties were anti- competitive/ anti-trust?

Might've been, but that would have been silly.  The MWC didn't take steps to keep them from being competitive, they just contracted for damages to the brand and ability to secure media $$.  The Pac2 doesn't have much of a leg to stand on, but they did create one for the departing 5.

No, I'm not a lawyer either, it's just how I see it.

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