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Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 7:22 PM, Tripoda said:

How did UNLV do against your Asstechs in the last couple of years? Do you think you will do better next year? 

UNLV will win.

The Spaztecs picked the wrong ball Coach and we are stuck with him for two more years.

Thank Gawd Basketball carries the water.

Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 9:26 PM, Spaztecs said:

UNLV will win.

The Spaztecs picked the wrong ball Coach and we are stuck with him for two more years.

Thank Gawd Basketball carries the water.

We win? We will rape you.

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Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 7:28 PM, Tripoda said:

We win? We will rape you.

Like they are doing so in Viejas.

You're squad is getting better. The Aztecs are regressing this year.

Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 9:34 PM, Spaztecs said:

Like they are doing so in Viejas.

You're squad is getting better. The Aztecs are regressing this year.

Fuck the MBB team of ours. Kevin Kruger is on his way out. We are talking about out FB team.

  • Haha 2
Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 7:37 PM, Tripoda said:

Fuck the MBB team of ours. Kevin Kruger is on his way out. We are talking about out FB team.

Your BB squad is running us out of our building. Suddenly the Rebs have flipped a switch in Conference play.

 

The boos are raining down.

Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 5:09 PM, CSUProgressive said:

Exactly. The idea that anyone would prefer being in a conference with schools like UTEP and Grand Canyon over a lineup featuring Wazzu, Oregon State, and Gonzaga is laughable. The nPac is building a competitive, respectable conference with programs that bring value both athletically and academically. Meanwhile, the MWC is scrambling to hold things together with court battles and “potential” that never seems to materialize.

As for UNLV staying behind, it’s baffling. They have the market, the resources, and the ability to compete on a bigger stage. Avoiding the nPac makes no sense—unless they’re content with mediocrity. The nPac is the future, and those left behind will only have themselves to blame.

I don’t get the whole putting a “n” in front of conference names thing. The Pac is the Pac and the MWC is the MWC.

  • Cheers 1
Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 8:44 PM, evilpoke said:

Well, this devolved quickly.

I'm recovering from the basketball game.

Time for a shot and a bowl. Gotta lay down with a wet cloth over my eyes.

 

 

Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 6:12 PM, 415hawaiiboy 2.0 said:

I think the awesome scenario for the MW is this:

1) Geography 

IMG_4956.thumb.jpeg.2ecc16d5df600488d72d7a4751e74ab5.jpeg

The MW is concentrated in the southwest part of the nation.  That’s were the population centers are.  Notice the big white space in the upper left corner?  It’s very noticable.

2) Change

First the win-loss distribution will change for both the PAC and MW.  It has too.  New teams will become powerhouses.  Momentum will be created.  To think nothing will change, is to forget the rule: expect the unexpected. 
 

3) Structure

Here’s where I think will be the biggest decider of money, exposure - and that is which media partner(s), what distribution and marketing channels will be superior in 10 years time.  My bet is on the tech streamers.  


4) Luck

Boise going 11-1 has a lot to do with luck.  They make their own, for sure.  I predict the PAC will experience parity problems that plagued the old PAC, when it comes to playoff contention.  I’m not convinced that any MW team could go undefeated in conference and OOC by 2030.  Therefore, I believe the G6 participant will be ranked in the top 15-25.  That said, new leaders will emerge.  
 

If the PAC can’t fully distinguish themselves by having a top G6 team, and picks the wrong media partner, they will be the exact same as the MW by 2032.  None of the PAC or MW teams are irreplaceable, maybe except for Boise’s consistency.  Oregon State and Wazzu still have to prove they can be contenders purely with mid-major resources.  New Mexico could be the next Fresno or SDSU.  Same with any other school in these new conferences.  

I guess my argument is undefeated 

Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 8:50 PM, 415hawaiiboy 2.0 said:

I guess my argument is undefeated 

Good arguments.

1. At the moment, the MW has bigger Metros. Add Memphis/Tulane and that evens out.

2.  Change.  The lower end of the MW will become more competitive in both Sports. The big two (AFA and UNLV) will dominate FB and have a clearer shot at being the G rep than the Pac. The Pac is more balanced at the top, which creates more parity. Don't be surprised to see two three loss Champs. There are far fewer gimmees.

3. Media structure is important. The MW will likely renew with CBSSports/FS1&2/WBD and MWN streaming. It's expensive to get CBSSports and the baby Foxes. They're rarely in the top tier of cable, satellite, and Internet distribution. You have to pay extra for it. The Pac is believed to have offers from The CW/FS1/WBD,  also ESPN2/FS1/ESPN+, or all streaming with Amazon/Apple. Payouts can grow based on subscriptions.

4. Luck. See point two.

Even if the Pac gets a lame media deal (sub $10 mil) and stops with Texas State, it is still a better League. Mostly because of upper half is stronger and balanced.  Even more so in basketball.

SDSU seems irreplaceable as well. Both they and Boise have brought in over $50 mil in post season revenue. USU is a distant third at $18.5 mil. That's lot of revenue to lose. If SDSU gets the FB rolling again their viewership will increase in the #2 Pac TV market. CSU sans the CU game averaged over 800k viewers with garbage distribution.

Wazzu proved to be competitive in the PAC despite all the disadvantages. They are more on par revenue wise in this PAC. Plus, they do have Spokane as their TV market. Not great, but bigger than Boise and USU. Their TV numbers grew this year having games on OTA as opposed to the Pac Network.

I see Texas State as the next UNLV. They had over $40 mil in revenue in 2023. More than a few MW Schools. Like UNLV, the surrounding Community and alums finally grew big enough to increase funding, facilities, and commitment. They set attendance records the last two seasons.  They have good Ball Coach who is committed to Texas State. A move to the Pac would separate them from UTSA and the other Texas G's in terms of recruiting and resources. 

I am bullish on the Pac. Less so on the MW, but still positive for their future. It is critical for UH, UNM and UTEP to get better at FB for overall MW success going forward. Those are three large untapped Sports markets. There are no pro Teams or overlapping College markets to compete with. Imo, next to Vegas the most important markets in the MW.  Reno, Sparty, Wyoming, and Co Springs are maxed out markets. Phoenix will help if GCU can compete.

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Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 9:18 PM, Spaztecs said:

Good arguments.

1. At the moment, the MW has bigger Metros. Add Memphis/Tulane and that evens out.

2.  Change.  The lower end of the MW will become more competitive in both Sports. The big two (AFA and UNLV) will dominate FB and have a clearer shit at being the G rep than the Pac. The Pac is more balanced at the top, which creates more equal. Don't be surprised to see two three loss Champs. There are far fewer gimmees.

3. Media structure is important. The MW will likely renew with CBSports/FS1&2/WBD and MWN streaming. It's expensive to get CBSSports and the baby Foxes. They're rarely in the top tier of cable, satellite, and Internet distribution. You have to pay extra for it. The Pac is believes to have offers from The CW/FS1/WBD or all streaming with Amazon/Apple. Payouts based on subscriptions.

4. Luck. See point two.

Even if the Pac gets a lame media deal (sub $10 mil) and stops with Texas State, it is still a better (because of upper end balance ) League. Particularly in basketball.

SDSU seems irreplaceable as well. Both they and Boise have brought in over $50 mil in post season revenue. USU is a distant third at $18.5 mil. That's lot of revenue to lose. If SDSU gets the FB rolling again their viewership will increase in the #2 TV market. CSU sans the CU game averaged over 800k viewers with garbage distribution.

Wazzu proved to be competitive in the PAC despite all the disadvantages. They are more on par revenue wise in this PAC. Plus, they do have Spokane as their TV market. Not great, but bigger than Boise and USU. Their TV numbers grew this year having games on OTA as opposed to the Pac Network.

I see Texas State as the next UNLV. They had over $40 mil in revenue in 2023. More than a few MW Schools. Like UNLV, the surrounding Community and alums finally grew big enough to increase funding, facilities, and commitment. They set attendance records the last two seasons.  They have good Ball Coach who is committed to Texas State. A move to the Pac would separate them from UTSA in terms of recruiting and resources. 

I am bullish on the Pac. Less so on the MW, but still positive for their future. It is critical for UH, UNM and UTEP to get better at FB for overall MW success going forward. Those are three large untapped Sports markets. There are no pro Teams or over lapping College markets to compete with. Imo, next to Vegas the most important markets in the MW.  Reno, Sparty, Wyoming, and Co Springs are maxed out markets.

Thanks Spaztecs.  

I agree with your points.  I gladly pay for CBS Sports ($10 extra per month via Comcast) to support.  Hawaii is hardly on FS1, more a CBS preference especially Hawaii home games (I see a pattern with shows like Hawaii 5-0 and Magnum PI).  
 

The MW needs CBS Sports to grow if they are going to remain our flagship.  Or does it?  

Categorically, if the PAC’s angle is OTA disrupter with CW, then that’s a good angle.  MW needs a better angle than the status quo.  Brainstorming, I want to make Max into an international markets distribution for college sports leading with the schools with closer ties with Latinos (Fresno, SDSU, New Mexico, UTEP) and Hawaii (distribution to New Zealand, Australia) - gosh, we screwed up breaking up.  
 

The MW needs angles and I think the SW geography plays into that. 
 

The other angle is sports gambling which I mention over and over.  Still early innings on this industry (media + casino combination).

In 2032, if both the PAC and MW had TNT partnerships, I think that will be a battle space.  Which conference would TNT treat as their primary?  
 

I think FanDuel and MGM (not on Tv yet so just guessing) will have sports channels (FD likes college football advertising for next day NFL betting).  
 

Meaning there will be plenty more tv/streaming combo channels.  So, there will be headwinds on money for the lower tier conferences because the profit margins are getting gashed. 

My guess is it will be harder to reach “escape velocity” money separation between the two conferences.  
 

If money was a key variable, and exposure was key, the third will be marketing.  Marketing will be a key variable.  Sports betting media would thrive and needs marketing.  Marketing is the next key resource to fight over and I think the MW has the edge.
 

PAC having a niche in basketball is also a good angle.  That ups their upside, within a box. 
 

Markets wise, I think Memphis/Tulane are probably out for 2026 or 2027 joining if Texas State joins the PAC. Beyond 2030 is anyone’s guess, but their sights are probably higher. 
 

As a Hawaii fan, I mainly care about having a good, regional conference to be a part of and to nurture.  So, I’m happy. 

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Posted

It's looks like the MW has maintained that regionality and improved their TV markets with Chicago, PHX, and El Paso.  UH is well positioned with exposure in the gambling markets and getting onto a more accessible platform.

The Pac  wanting to create that separation and be the best Western, if not national G needs to go further afield. In that interest, they also shouldn't take in FCS call-ups. The only western FBS School left is NMSU. Hard pass unless it's an absolute hail Mary to get to eight. Which is kinda like winning a baseball game on a balk. Not very exciting and you don't know it happened until after the fact. But, you still won.

Hence their interest in TSU and Tulane/Memphis (Tulphis or MemLane ?)  They are most likely to come in 2027 when the exit fees come down to $10 mil with proper notice. If they don't come, NTSU or UTSA  are  poachable as they have  smaller exit fees than do the OG AAC Schools.

While the Schools in the Pac are in smaller DMA's, they are close to larger markets where most of the alumni and fanbase do live. OSU -Portland,  Wazzu-Spokane, USU - Salt Lake, and hopefully TSU - San Antonio.

I think the separation will be greater than you believe. Right now we know there was an ESPN low-ball offer of $8-9 mil.  The CW and Amazon/Apple have pushed the bidding up. If the MW can hit $5 to $6 mil they will be okay with the exit and poaching fees.  I don't think they will be as high as the contracts call for. Most separation battles have seen reduced fees and extended payment windows. The Pac right now seems to have the high road on the poaching fees being as most Attorneys in this area are saying they are anti-competetive. It literally limits the MW Schools bargaining power with other Conferences knowing there are poaching fees.

Not disparaging the MW, but these Schools sans UW and UH have yet to perform in their  markets. UNLV is finally living up to their potential.  These are markets the MW can expand their viewership in now that the top half of the MW is gone and these Schools will be more competitive.

 

 

 

 

Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 11:04 PM, Spaztecs said:

It's looks like the MW has maintained that regionality and improved their TV markets with Chicago, PHX, and El Paso.  UH is well positioned with exposure in the gambling markets and getting onto a more accessible platform.

The Pac  wanting to create that separation and be the best Western, if not national G needs to go further afield. In that interest, they also shouldn't take in FCS call-ups. The only western FBS School left is NMSU. Hard pass unless it's an absolute hail Mary to get to eight. Which is kinda like winning a baseball game on a balk. Not very exciting and you don't know it happened until after the fact. But, you still won.

Hence their interest in TSU and Tulane/Memphis (Tulphis or MemLane ?)  They are most likely to come in 2027 when the exit fees come down to $10 mil with proper notice. If they don't come, NTSU or UTSA  are  poachable as they have  smaller exit fees than do the OG AAC Schools.

While the Schools in the Pac are in smaller DMA's, they are close to larger markets where most of the alumni and fanbase do live. OSU -Portland,  Wazzu-Spokane, USU - Salt Lake, and hopefully TSU - San Antonio.

I think the separation will be greater than you believe. Right now we know there was an ESPN low-ball offer of $8-9 mil.  The CW and Amazon/Apple have pushed the bidding up. If the MW can hit $5 to $6 mil they will be okay with the exit and poaching fees.  I don't think they will be as high as the contracts call for. Most separation battles have seen reduced fees and extended payment windows. The Pac right now seems to have the high road on the poaching fees being as most Attorneys in this area are saying they are anti-competetive. It literally limits the MW Schools bargaining power with other Conferences knowing there are poaching fees.

Not disparaging the MW, but these Schools sans UW and UH have yet to perform in their  markets. UNLV is finally living up to their potential.  These are markets the MW can expand their viewership in now that the top half of the MW is gone and these Schools will be more competitive.

 

 

 

 

Every action has a reaction.  Who becomes the bottom dwellers of the PAC?  There will always be those when only one team wins a game.  Can’t have absolute parity.  Your new bottom dwellers become your dregs.  Cycle repeats. 
 

Hawaii loved the WAC.  There were a couple guaranteed wins, helped with bowl eligibility.  
 

The home markets problem is going to be exported to the PAC.  
 

I find it interesting that the most consistent MW teams were not from big cities (with some exceptions).  That “Big 12” model works if there is a legacy structure in place and led by high value blue bloods (Oklahoma-Texas), and erodes over time  as the conference becomes more commoditized. 
 

PAC State = West Coast inferior B12

MW = ?

Posted
On 1/19/2025 at 12:13 AM, 415hawaiiboy 2.0 said:

Every action has a reaction.  Who becomes the bottom dwellers of the PAC?  There will always be those when only one team wins a game.  Can’t have absolute parity.  Your new bottom dwellers become your dregs.  Cycle repeats. 
 

Hawaii loved the WAC.  There were a couple guaranteed wins, helped with bowl eligibility.  
 

The home markets problem is going to be exported to the PAC.  
 

I find it interesting that the most consistent MW teams were not from big cities (with some exceptions).  That “Big 12” model works if there is a legacy structure in place and led by high value blue bloods (Oklahoma-Texas), and erodes over time  as the conference becomes more commoditized. 
 

PAC State = West Coast inferior B12

MW = ?

To pushback a little, one of the benefits of an 8 team football conference is that it gives the schools less guaranteed losses with a 7 game conference schedule. I see your point about how every conference has dregs, but with 7 conference games it’s much more realistic for schools finishing near the bottom of the standings to be bowl eligible.
 

Same logic in basketball with the Pac if they have 9 schools and a 16 game schedule in an era where most conferences play 18 or 20 conference games.

Posted
On 1/19/2025 at 1:13 AM, 415hawaiiboy 2.0 said:

Every action has a reaction.  Who becomes the bottom dwellers of the PAC?  There will always be those when only one team wins a game.  Can’t have absolute parity.  Your new bottom dwellers become your dregs.  Cycle repeats. 
 

Hawaii loved the WAC.  There were a couple guaranteed wins, helped with bowl eligibility.  
 

The home markets problem is going to be exported to the PAC.  
 

I find it interesting that the most consistent MW teams were not from big cities (with some exceptions).  That “Big 12” model works if there is a legacy structure in place and led by high value blue bloods (Oklahoma-Texas), and erodes over time  as the conference becomes more commoditized. 
 

PAC State = West Coast inferior B12

MW = ?

The bottom dwellers in FB will initially be CSU, SDSU and TSU. I'm thinking it will be more like the Mac. Most of the League is between 5-7 wins. CCG tilts will feature 2 and three loss teams. This years Boise Team probably would have had a Conference loss to go along with their Oregon loss. There will be no gimme games where you can take your foot off the gas and still win comfortably.

If the Pac is West Coast inferior B12, the MW is Southwestern inferior Pac

Posted
On 1/19/2025 at 12:04 AM, Spaztecs said:

It's looks like the MW has maintained that regionality and improved their TV markets with Chicago, PHX, and El Paso.  UH is well positioned with exposure in the gambling markets and getting onto a more accessible platform.

The Pac  wanting to create that separation and be the best Western, if not national G needs to go further afield. In that interest, they also shouldn't take in FCS call-ups. The only western FBS School left is NMSU. Hard pass unless it's an absolute hail Mary to get to eight. Which is kinda like winning a baseball game on a balk. Not very exciting and you don't know it happened until after the fact. But, you still won.

Hence their interest in TSU and Tulane/Memphis (Tulphis or MemLane ?)  They are most likely to come in 2027 when the exit fees come down to $10 mil with proper notice. If they don't come, NTSU or UTSA  are  poachable as they have  smaller exit fees than do the OG AAC Schools.

While the Schools in the Pac are in smaller DMA's, they are close to larger markets where most of the alumni and fanbase do live. OSU -Portland,  Wazzu-Spokane, USU - Salt Lake, and hopefully TSU - San Antonio.

I think the separation will be greater than you believe. Right now we know there was an ESPN low-ball offer of $8-9 mil.  The CW and Amazon/Apple have pushed the bidding up. If the MW can hit $5 to $6 mil they will be okay with the exit and poaching fees.  I don't think they will be as high as the contracts call for. Most separation battles have seen reduced fees and extended payment windows. The Pac right now seems to have the high road on the poaching fees being as most Attorneys in this area are saying they are anti-competetive. It literally limits the MW Schools bargaining power with other Conferences knowing there are poaching fees.

Not disparaging the MW, but these Schools sans UW and UH have yet to perform in their  markets. UNLV is finally living up to their potential.  These are markets the MW can expand their viewership in now that the top half of the MW is gone and these Schools will be more competitive.

Serious response - do you have links to these? I'd like to see/read them. 

BTW - the PAC DMAs and MW DMAs are pretty even, at least at this stage. 

Posted
On 1/18/2025 at 3:42 PM, Tripoda said:

PAC in 10-12 Mexican Pesos range. Which should be around 6-8.

Football finish next season should be interesting. I predicted top 3 in this order

1. UNLV

2. SJSU

3. BSU

The nPAC will withered into obscurity along with OSU and WAZZU purses.

Pretty sure most of the projections right now are people pulling number from their back ends. But if you do a little research and read what most people are projecting for media pay outs they have the MWC around $6mil per team per year and the PAC around $8mil per team per year. Again i doubt anynody knows where either conference will end up but that is the numbers being projected by the industry at the moment. Either way doesnt matter a hole lot because both conferences will be completely difference within 5 years of the PAC being recreated.

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