LA in Flames

[RSF]

On 1/9/2025 at 12:20 PM, azgreg said:

Turns out the claims that LA cut the fire department budget were false. Go figure.

 

Get outta town....you mean Jack's been listening to the wrong people AGAIN?

[azgreg]

Do you think they have insurance for this?

[The San Diegan]

On 1/8/2025 at 11:35 PM, AztecAlien said:

The Santa Ana winds during the Kitchen Creek Fire produced wind gusts, not average wind speed, of 100 mph in 1970, 55 years ago. As I stated above, that fire burned 30 miles in 24 hours. The Laguna Beach fire produced wind gusts of 90+ mph in 1993, 32 years ago.

https://wffoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Laguna-Final-v2.pdf

San Diego County's population has more than tripled since 1970. The Cedar Fire and the Witch Creek Fire were more devastating than the Kitchen Creek Fire because of population growth. 

Fire is beneficial to the environment and many ecosystems. Unfortunately, it becomes devastating because of the loss of human life and the monetary damage it causes. 

As far as drought goes, that's part of the Climate of California and it has dealt with that for thousands of years. I showed you a link to that on the other board. I'll try to dig it up. There also shouldn't be 40 million people living in California. 

 

As I said, such wind events that were rarer than hens teeth - I never said they never occurred - what I said was what was once the exception is now the norm. Those are two remarkably different and distinct sentiments. And hurricane-strength Santa Ana wind events were never the norm until the last couple decades. My exact words:

On 1/8/2025 at 11:07 PM, The San Diegan said:

Santa Ana winds are nothing unusual. But 70-100 mph Santa Ana winds were largely unheard of (read: very rare) until the last quarter century or so. As you know, there were wildfires every summer growing up in East County. And air assets were always there like clockwork dumping shit on them (I respectfully question your recollection of 80+ mph Santa Ana winds regularly occurring during the same time in the same area I grew up yet I remember no such events. My recollection is 40-50 mph gusts were the 'norm' for serious Santa Ana wind events). 

We never historically had wind events like we regularly do now, where we now routinely receive TS to Cat 2 strength winds. We live in the burn are from both Cedar Fire and Witch Creek Fire. Local sustained gusts in '03 of 70mph, which kept air assets grounded all day. And like I said, NOAA measured a 110 mph gust near us in '07. No man. That's absolutely not normal. 

Furthermore, and of equal importance, prolonged periods and increased severity of droughts - due to temperature increases - have resulted in a year-round fire season - something else that we never historically dealt with before.

 

Also, while ancillary to the point, you were incorrect in your recollection or assertion of the burn area (it did not burn to the coast, unless you're referring to the coast of the Sweetwater Reservoir 😀)

On 1/8/2025 at 5:45 PM, AztecAlien said:

You probably don't remember the Laguna fire. I was very young and remember my parents talking about it. That fire burned from Mt Laguna to the ocean. If that fire happened today, it would be devastating because of urban sprawl. Santa Ana winds are nothing unusual. I've dealt with 80+ mph Santa Ana winds in the 70s, 80s, 90's and early 2000s. The wildlifes have become more devastating because more people move into areas that are prone to fires and where fuel that hasn't burned in 100+ years. 

My grandparents house I grew up in and my wifes aunts house burned to the ground during the Cedar Fire. 

Here is the burn map from the Laguna Fire:

So again - while severe Santa Ana wind events did occur, they were rare as fuck. Now they are the norm. And again, those severe increases in wind velocities associated with Santa Anas are a primary driver - along with extended doughy periods drying out vegetation - in the rapidity of spread of wildfires that result in so much destruction. 

This is further borne out by the fact that of the 20 largest wildfires (not most destructive, as I agree this is as much a function of urban sprawl as anything else) in CA state history (going back to the 19th century), 19 of them (!! 90%!) have occurred just since 2003 (link) and a full half of them have occurred since 2020..

With regards to prolonged drought, never before in recorded history have we had a 12-month, Jan-to-Dec fire season. We do now. 

I guess you could argue that if we go far enough back in prehistoric record there were similar climate cycles, but man... not only is that a helluva red herring, but you do realize the jury is in with regards to anthropogenic climate change, right? There's more evidence un support of anthropogenic climate change than there is in evolution, or in support of the link between tobacco use and cancer.

[The San Diegan]

On 1/9/2025 at 11:57 AM, azgreg said:

Do you think they have insurance for this?

Man, the impact on CA homeowners in general has been harsh. Our current private property and casualty insurance industry is not sustainable. And that comes from a (very) conservative friend who's a big swinging dick at a Fortune 100 finance company. Homeowners will need insurance, and the cost of these tragedies - whether it be wildfires in the West, hailstorms and tornadoes in the Midwest, hurricanes in the South, or bomb cyclones and dee freezes in the Northeast - and instance companies simply cannot afford to continue to pay out claims and make a profit without making insurance premiums prohibitively expensive or simply refusing to cover homeowners.

[AztecAlien]

On 1/9/2025 at 2:04 PM, The San Diegan said:

As I said, such wind events that were rarer than hens teeth - I never said they never occurred - what I said was what was once the exception is now the norm. Those are two remarkably different and distinct sentiments. And hurricane-strength Santa Ana wind events were never the norm until the last couple decades. My exact words:

Also, while ancillary to the point, you were incorrect in your recollection or assertion of the burn area (it did not burn to the coast, unless you're referring to the coast of the Sweetwater Reservoir 😀)

Here is the burn map from the Laguna Fire:

So again - while severe Santa Ana wind events did occur, they were rare as fuck. Now they are the norm. And again, those severe increases in wind velocities associated with Santa Anas are a primary driver - along with extended doughy periods drying out vegetation - in the rapidity of spread of wildfires that result in so much destruction. 

This is further borne out by the fact that of the 20 largest wildfires (not most destructive, as I agree this is as much a function of urban sprawl as anything else) in CA state history (going back to the 19th century), 18 of them (!! 90%!) have occurred just since 2000 (link).

With regards to prolonged drought, never before in recorded history have we had a 12-month, Jan-to-Dec fire season. We do now. 

I guess you could argue that if we go far enough back in prehistoric record there were similar climate cycles, but man... not only is that a helluva red herring, but you do realize the jury is in with regards to anthropogenic climate change, right? There's more evidence un support of anthropogenic climate change than there is in evolution, or in support of the link between tobacco use and cancer.

Sorry bro, but this has been happening for centuries. And there has always been full years of fire season in California. Not every year, but it has happend. There just wasn't 40 million people living in California. And you must have missed the part where I stated this before that post. 

"The fire tore through the canyons and nearly made it to the ocean." My apologies for not stating exactly that in the post you're referring to. If that's your gotcha point, well good on you.

And I just have to laugh at your severe Santa Ana winds being rare as fuck take. They just didn't have fires associated with them, so evidently they didn't exist. Lol. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Ana_winds#:~:text=Typically%2C about 10 to 25,day wind in November 1957.

"Typically, about 10 to 25 Santa Ana wind events occur annually.[5] A Santa Ana wind can blow from one to seven days, with an average wind event lasting three days.[6] The longest recorded Santa Ana event was a 14-day wind in November 1957."

Btw, this is what you originally posted and changed it to fit your narrative. I went back 6 decades.  

[The San Diegan]

On 1/9/2025 at 1:33 PM, AztecAlien said:

Sorry bro, but this has been happening for centuries. And there has always been full years of fire season in California. Not every year, but it has happend. There just wasn't 40 million people living in California. And you must have missed the part where I stated this before that post. 

"The fire tore through the canyons and nearly made it to the ocean." My apologies for not stating exactly that in the post you're referring to. If that's your gotcha point, well good on you. 

Btw, this is what you originally posted and changed it to fit your narrative. I went back 6 decades.  

Yes, that is exactly what I wrote - "largely unheard of until the last two decades." Not sure what part of that qualifier is not resonating? And my post remains the same as it was when I first posted it - I haven't changed a thing. 

Again - remove property damage from the equation. Just consider the largest fires that burnt the most acreage. All but one of the 20 largest wildfires in CA state history have occurred since 2003, and half off them just within the last four years.

Again - the primary drivers for this are wind velocities that with the exception of rare exceptions did not happen before the last couple decades - and which themselves very well could be attributed to larger- and stronger-than-normal high pressures over the desert SW - and the increased heat and resultant prolonged droughts that have resulted in a year-round fire season.

And no, you are not even remotely accurate in stating that is/was the historical norm. Ask any of the state fire services ffs. Or better yet, here's some historical data on droughts in California - this charts the modern metric used for measuring droughts (the Palmer Drought Severity Index) going all the way back to 1985. The data speaks for itself:

Dry months are denoted in red; wet months in blue. Please for the love of Dog tell me you can see the pattern? 🤞😬🤞

And as mentioned, net temperature increases are also a significant driver. Here's the delta between average temperatures since 2000 compared to long-term averages:

 

[AztecAlien]

On 1/9/2025 at 4:35 PM, The San Diegan said:

Yes, that is exactly what I wrote - "largely unheard of until the last two decades." Not sure what part of that qualifier is not resonating? And my post remains the same as it was when I first posted it - I haven't changed a thing. 

Again - remove property damage from the equation. Just consider the largest fires that burnt the most acreage. All but one of the 20 largest wildfires in CA state history have occurred since 2003, and half off them just within the last four years.

Again - the primary drivers for this are wind velocities that with the exception of rare exceptions did not happen before the last couple decades - and which themselves very well could be attributed to larger- and stronger-than-normal high pressures over the desert SW - and the increased heat and resultant prolonged droughts that have resulted in a year-round fire season.

And no, you are not even remotely accurate in stating that is/was the historical norm. Ask any of the state fire services ffs. Or better yet, here's some historical data on droughts in California - this charts the modern metric used for measuring droughts (the Palmer Drought Severity Index) going all the way back to 1985. The data speaks for itself:

Dry months are denoted in red; wet months in blue. Please for the love of Dog tell me you can see the pattern? 🤞😬🤞

And as mentioned, net temperature increases are also a significant driver. Here's the delta between average temperatures since 2000 compared to long-term averages:

 

This from 2000.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/02/000208075420.htm

They construct past climate changes based on the tree ring structures, going back hundreds of years.

"Individual trees have their own personal histories, but a group of 30-40 tiny core samples from trees in the same region form a library with a shared recording of the climatic past. The scientists used some chronologies that date back more than 1,000 years to reconstruct the past climate of North America and Mexico and unearth the epic drought of the 16th century.

The tree ring records tell of the worst drought in 1,000 years, with an extended period of dryness lasting 40 years in places

Ironically, the lack of water may have been linked to ocean currents. Because the drought-affected area looks like a pattern formed on a smaller scale in today's climate-ocean current phenomenon La Nina, Stahle speculates that cold ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific may have caused the prolonged drought since the weather blows across America from the Pacific Ocean.

This drought was not a consequence of global warming. We don't know what caused it. The factors that did cause it could return," Stahle said. Further studies of ocean sediments or coral reefs may reveal the ocean's role, if any, in this past, prolonged, severe drought."

2018

https://pubs.aip.org/physicstoday/online/4624/Four-ways-we-know-pre-Columbian-America-was

"Between roughly 800 and 1500 CE, the American West suffered a succession of decades-long droughts, much longer than anything we’ve endured in modern history. 

"The tree ring records tell of the worst drought in 1,000 years, with an extended period of dryness lasting 40 years in places" 

[smltwnrckr]

On 1/9/2025 at 3:55 PM, AztecAlien said:

This from 2000.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/02/000208075420.htm

They construct past climate changes based on the tree ring structures, going back hundreds of years.

"Individual trees have their own personal histories, but a group of 30-40 tiny core samples from trees in the same region form a library with a shared recording of the climatic past. The scientists used some chronologies that date back more than 1,000 years to reconstruct the past climate of North America and Mexico and unearth the epic drought of the 16th century.

The tree ring records tell of the worst drought in 1,000 years, with an extended period of dryness lasting 40 years in places

Ironically, the lack of water may have been linked to ocean currents. Because the drought-affected area looks like a pattern formed on a smaller scale in today's climate-ocean current phenomenon La Nina, Stahle speculates that cold ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific may have caused the prolonged drought since the weather blows across America from the Pacific Ocean.

This drought was not a consequence of global warming. We don't know what caused it. The factors that did cause it could return," Stahle said. Further studies of ocean sediments or coral reefs may reveal the ocean's role, if any, in this past, prolonged, severe drought."

2018

https://pubs.aip.org/physicstoday/online/4624/Four-ways-we-know-pre-Columbian-America-was

"Between roughly 800 and 1500 CE, the American West suffered a succession of decades-long droughts, much longer than anything we’ve endured in modern history. 

"The tree ring records tell of the worst drought in 1,000 years, with an extended period of dryness lasting 40 years in places" 

Just to be clear - your boy Stahle believes in human-caused climate change.

And the two authors of the other study have done a bunch of other research on human caused climate change and its effects.

So, not sure this is the dunk you think it is? 

[AztecAlien]

On 1/9/2025 at 5:40 PM, smltwnrckr said:

Just to be clear - your boy Stahle believes in human-caused climate change.

I do as well, but just to a point. And my point is, California, before it was a state, or mass human influence, has had long periods of drought going back centuries and possibly thousands of years. And that was laid out in the research. 

[smltwnrckr]

On 1/9/2025 at 4:52 PM, AztecAlien said:

I do as well, but just to a point. And my point is, California, before it was a state, or mass human influence, has had long periods of drought going back centuries and possibly thousands of years. 

Yes, and all of the people who do the research to show us this also tell us that those extremes will be more frequent and severe moving forward.

Also, the "I do as well" but "just to a point" is a bunch of dithering nonsense. Just stand up and say that the climate always changes and it's man's hubris to assume they can have power over the climate. There's more dignity in it than saying that climate change is real but it's not responsible for any changes. 

[AztecAlien]

On 1/9/2025 at 6:01 PM, smltwnrckr said:

Yes, and all of the people who do the research to show us this also tell us that those extremes will be more frequent and severe moving forward.

Also, the "I do as well" but "just to a point" is a bunch of dithering nonsense. Just stand up and say that the climate always changes and it's man's hubris to assume they can have power over the climate. There's more dignity in it than saying that climate change is real but it's not responsible for any changes. 

The dithering nonsense is coming from people like Al Gore and AOC.

The earth's climate is always changing and has for millions of years. We are still in a interglacial period from the last ice age, just 11-12 thousand years ago. If you're a believer, like I am, that the Earth is millions upon millions and possibly billions of years old, that's like last Tuesday as far as time goes. The Earth is still warming and the Northern Hemisphere will be affected more than the Southern Hemisphere. Drought is part of the climate in California and has been. 

[GO STATE]

On 1/8/2025 at 10:39 PM, Antonio Diego said:

I hope you are evacuating ASAP. I sent my wife and kids to a relative's house in a neighboring city, last night. My chiquillos were scared, you could see the Eaton canyon fire from our front door.

I left my neighborhood this morning at dawn. Once my neighborhood was ordered to evacuate.

I came back. Fortunately, the destruction ended 1/2 mile up from my neighborhood.

Stay safe. Cuidate.

 

Cuídate también parce…  

Oh ya, the post w/the image was post shortly after I bugged out.  I spent the night w/friends in the SoBay.  The Evac Zone shifted 1/2-mi to my east before dawn, so I no longer have any restrictions.  

As a crow flies, Lake Hollywood is close, so helos were making rapid h2o drops in >10-min cycles.

I hope things are going for y’all & your kiddos are sleeping well.

Bueno suerte hermano…

[GO STATE]

On 1/9/2025 at 5:12 PM, AztecAlien said:

The earths climate is always changing and has for millions of years. We are still in a interglacial period from the last ice age just 11-12 thousand years ago. If you're a believer like I am, that the Earth is millions upon millions and possibly billions of years old, which is like last Tuesday as far as time goes. The earth is still warming and the Northern Hemisphere will be effected more than the Southern Hemisphere. Drought is part of the Climate in California and has been. 

tell us you are a climate denier w/out telling us…

[The San Diegan]

On 1/9/2025 at 3:55 PM, AztecAlien said:

This from 2000.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/02/000208075420.htm

They construct past climate changes based on the tree ring structures, going back hundreds of years.

"Individual trees have their own personal histories, but a group of 30-40 tiny core samples from trees in the same region form a library with a shared recording of the climatic past. The scientists used some chronologies that date back more than 1,000 years to reconstruct the past climate of North America and Mexico and unearth the epic drought of the 16th century.

The tree ring records tell of the worst drought in 1,000 years, with an extended period of dryness lasting 40 years in places

Ironically, the lack of water may have been linked to ocean currents. Because the drought-affected area looks like a pattern formed on a smaller scale in today's climate-ocean current phenomenon La Nina, Stahle speculates that cold ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific may have caused the prolonged drought since the weather blows across America from the Pacific Ocean.

This drought was not a consequence of global warming. We don't know what caused it. The factors that did cause it could return," Stahle said. Further studies of ocean sediments or coral reefs may reveal the ocean's role, if any, in this past, prolonged, severe drought."

2018

https://pubs.aip.org/physicstoday/online/4624/Four-ways-we-know-pre-Columbian-America-was

"Between roughly 800 and 1500 CE, the American West suffered a succession of decades-long droughts, much longer than anything we’ve endured in modern history. 

"The tree ring records tell of the worst drought in 1,000 years, with an extended period of dryness lasting 40 years in places" 

I get that. Like I said, if you go back far enough back prehistorical timeline, you will surely find worse periods. 

But the link between mankind's activities (since Industrialization) and resulting climate change  - and in particular greenhouse gas emissions - is well established. And as our ability to more effectively model atmospheric processes continues to improve, so does our ability to better isolate the factors driving temperature increased for which we are responsible:

Link

I think better questions - and questions for which I don't know the answer and haven't been able to find any - is, are the high pressure systems that set up where they do to create the Santa Anas funneling through the mountain passes increasing in magnitude? 🤔 I mean, a greater pressure differential would result in greater wind velocity, right?

Also, for the record, I have been trying to find historical Santa Ana data from NWS (also striking out), though if we're going to include a timeframe spanning 1200 years, not sure it matters all that much.

[MrBug708]

The air quality was awful at my school today. Almost half the staff called out because of the fires or air quality. We have no school tomorrow because it's so bad. There were some awful winds in the area back in 2011, there just wasn't a spark. This was what fire crews were dealing with near Altadena on Tuesday

https://www.instagram.com/losangeles_foos/reel/DEnHvduPQzF/

[SWspartan]

I live in Palm Desert, 110 miles or so east of Los Angeles and the smoke from the fires is here. I feel very sorry for those who lost loved ones and homes. It's apocalyptic. 

[FresnoFacts]

A drone collided with a CL-415 Superscooper fighting the Palisades fire.

Fortunately the aircraft landed safely. But it is now out of service and unable to help with the fires.

Probably some idiot drone owner wanting pics/video to gain some social media likes.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-09/drone-collides-with-firefighting-aircraft-over-palisades-fire-faa-says

https://x.com/Oriana0214/status/1877518740411056410

 

This picture is floating around on social media claiming to show the wing damage. The aircraft looks like it is the correct model. I just have not seen it confirmed this is the actual current incident damage.

[GO STATE]

On 1/8/2025 at 11:06 PM, The San Diegan said:

Here's to the wind dying down and first responders getting ahead of it. I sincerely hope you return to your home just as you left it. 

The Homested was just like I left it 24-hrs earlier.

I’m sure glad Lake Hollywood [Res - as scene in the open/close of the ‘Andy Griffith Show’]
is so close.   Helos were able to make rounders of h2o drops every 10-mins Wed evening.

Thx LA City Fire!!!

[GO STATE]

On 1/9/2025 at 10:20 AM, azgreg said:

Turns out the claims that LA cut the fire department budget were false. Go figure.

 

I read the were cuts of the LA City Fire’s budget. But they very nominal: ~2%
 

[azgreg]

On 1/10/2025 at 12:53 AM, GO STATE said:

I read the were cuts of the LA City Fire’s budget. But they very nominal: ~2%
 

There was a separate funding bill. Their budget was actually increased over $50M.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/08/wildfire-threatens-karen-bass-extended-honeymoon-00197228