North Korea to send more troops, arms to front lines.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 12/27/2024 at 5:49 PM, The San Diegan said:

it is statements like this that really do come off like RU state propaganda man. While I never claimed desertion rates were overstated, I do certainly maintain you really undersell the parity of consequence for Russia.

And the Kursk invasion was a "disaster?" Really? Lol. Is that in the same way that the rate of fire ratio is "10:1" in Russia's favor? Your gift for inaccuracy is only matched by your gift for hyperbole in this instance, friendo.

First, I did the research you could not find.  The 10:1 ratio is absolutely correct as of less than a month ago per those in the front lines in the hottest contested areas, per people that actually matter. Per their own military leadership in interviews.  The numbers drop when you consider the very vast lines.  But in the critical positions, yeah bud it is 10 to 1.  Unless you can find anything more recent.

And yes the Kursk incursion has been a disaster.  It accomplished nothing, they have lost WELL over half and have their best troops surrounded.  For what purpose?  Meanwhile Russia is taking advantage of their stressed lines.

No, Ukraine can not win a war of attrition against Russia.  That's not RU propaganda that is common fucking sense. Bodies matter 

[The San Diegan]

On 12/28/2024 at 3:41 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

First, I did the research you could not find.  The 10:1 ratio is absolutely correct as of less than a month ago per those in the front lines in the hottest contested areas, per people that actually matter. Per their own military leadership in interviews.  The numbers drop when you consider the very vast lines.  But in the critical positions, yeah bud it is 10 to 1.  Unless you can find anything more recent.

And yes the Kursk incursion has been a disaster.  It accomplished nothing, they have lost WELL over half and have their best troops surrounded.  For what purpose?  Meanwhile Russia is taking advantage of their stressed lines.

No, Ukraine can not win a war of attrition against Russia.  That's not RU propaganda that is common fucking sense. Bodies matter 

Again, waiting for a link to substantiate this claim and to rebuke the published information to the contrary I have posted upthread. "Just because I said so" is not sufficient. Now, you can cherry pick some salient where RU is making a concentrated push and sure, you will find a greater ratio, because that salient or section of the front represents a concerted focus with a corresponding concentrated rate of fire. But that is not representative of deltas in other regions - that is why you have to consider averages across axes of operations.

And no, Kursk has not been a "disaster." At least not yet. Why? First, it created a buffer zone for the people of Sumy, who were previously subjected to Russian artillery fires from Kursk. The DIU believed another attack on Sumy was forthcoming and launched a preemptive offensive. In this regard, it has been successful (though this could change). Second, the psychological effect on the people of Russia - both the average babushka and the oligarchs who could possibly remove Putin from power - has been palpable. As have been both the Ukrainian acts of sabotage and drone strikes deep into Russian territory (e.g., Moscow oblast). This is the third reason, as the offensive allowed for the insertion of Ukrainian forces to conduct such operations. Fourth - and in continuation of the last two - the Kursk offensive has allowed Ukraine to effectively deepen the range of Ukrainian HIMARS and other weapon systems that allow them to target critical Russian logistical infrastructure that degrades their ability to wage war on Ukraine. Fifth, the offensive has been effective in diverting critical Russian resources. And sixth, it has already provided a bounty of intelligence of the capabilities, tactics, and adaptability of DPRK regulars. So "disaster?" No. Could it end up being a tragic error by the time the dust settles? Sure. But ffs man I really hope this isn't something you would want to see just to say you were right.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

Ukrainian flagship brigade, trained for 9 months by France and Poland with prized Leopard 2s at the cost of billions has disintegrated due to desertion.  

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/01/02/ukrainian-soldiers-go-awol-before-shot-fired/

The soldiers don't want to fucking fight anymore.  The key city of Pokrovsk, critical to keeping Ukraines supply chain going to their front line soldiers in the South East appears will be lost any week/day now.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-attacks-strategic-city-pokrovsk-aiming-cut-off-supply-lines-kyiv-military-2025-01-04/

It was absolutely fucking moronic to think Ukraine would be able to negotiate from a position of strength if this war drug on.  We should have convinced them to end this shit 18 months ago. Tragic.

Ukraine was always going to fare worse and worse than Russia in a years long war of attrition.  To think otherwise was retarded.

On top of that, Zelensky is utterly incompetent.  The West made the mistake of conflating his bravery for capability, his hubris and defience for leadership.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

Again, one of the most expensive and advanced brigades in the entire Ukrainian army was disbanded a few short weeks after being deployed, after 9 months of training.  Highlighting Ukraines biggest issue.  Not only are they not coming close to meeting their enlistment goals, when new troops make it to the horror of the front lines and see their first action, the majority either desert or refuse their orders.

The Ukrainian troops being slaughtered and surrounded in the pointless Kursk incursion that accomplished nothing might have made a difference if deployed in the South East like Ukraine's best Generals begged Zelensky to do before he fired them.

[The San Diegan]

Amazing @halfmanhalfbronco how you only seem to post Ukrainian losses and setbacks and yet somehow never bother to post about Russian setbacks. It's almost as if you don't want to mention RU failures and only want to draw attention to attrition as it impacts Ukraine. 🙄

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 1/4/2025 at 11:22 AM, The San Diegan said:

Amazing @halfmanhalfbronco how you only seem to post Ukrainian losses and setbacks and yet somehow never bother to post about Russian setbacks. It's almost as if you don't want to mention RU failures and only want to draw attention to attrition as it impacts Ukraine. 🙄

RU can afford more failures.  Ukraine can not afford the levels of dessertion.  Russia has not had the notable set backs Ukraine has the past year. 

Zelensky is completely incompetent.  He is creating new units with green recruits, squandering the international aid he has been given as well as the lives of said recruits.  Western military experts are exasperated by this tactic.  The arms and soldiers should be sent to bolster and replace the losses of current units that are battle hardened.

Attrition is not having the same impact on Russian capabilities as it is Ukrainian.  That's the fact right now.

[The San Diegan]

On 1/4/2025 at 10:32 AM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

RU can afford more failures.  Ukraine can not afford the levels of dessertion.  Russia has not had the notable set backs Ukraine has the past year. 

Zelensky is completely incompetent.  He is creating new units with green recruits, squandering the international aid he has been given as well as the lives of said recruits.  Western military experts are exasperated by this tactic.  The arms and soldiers should be sent to bolster and replace the losses of current units that are battle hardened.

Attrition is not having the same impact on Russian capabilities as it is Ukrainian.  That's the fact right now.

Lulz. Why the actual fuck do you think there are DPRK regulars operating in Kursk? 

You claim Zedlensky is incompetent, even though his leadership is a primary factor in Ukraine largely repelling Russia's invasion. Yet not so much as a single mention of litany of failures, mistakes, and miscalculations that have characterized Putin's bungled invasion in the first place.

Your posts are amazingly biased, and as I mentioned a few days ago in refuting your demonstrable nonsense about Kursk, this is an awfully shitty thing to cheerlead for being right about when there are no shortage of data points to refute your assertion. 🙄

 

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 1/4/2025 at 11:41 AM, The San Diegan said:

Lulz. Why the actual fuck do you think there are DPRK regulars operating in Kursk? 

You claim Zedlensky is incompetent, even though his leadership is a primary factor in Ukraine largely repelling Russia's invasion. Yet not so much as a single mention of litany of failures, mistakes, and miscalculations that have characterized Putin's bungled invasion in the first place.

Your posts are amazingly biased, and as I mentioned a few days ago in refuting your demonstrable nonsense about Kursk, this is an awfully shitty thing to cheerlead for being right about when there are no shortage of data points to provide hope. 🙄

 

It's not cheerleading and nothing was demonstrably false in stating the Kursk incursion has been a disaster.  They have lost the vast majority of the land they captured and accomplished very little compared the losses in men and arms they couldn't afford.

It's speaking to the truth and reality of the situation.  If Provrosk falls it will be a catastrophe for the front line soldiers in the South East.  Russia will gain yet more territory and at a faster rate than at any point during the war.  It's insane that battle hardened elite units are being overwhelmed in Kursk when they could have made a difference here.  

You have constantly misjudged this war, TSD.  I remember warning you that the counter offensive was going to fail.  You were VERY optimistic.  It failed. I remember being the only one on the board saying the F16s would largely be ineffective.  They were.

Yes, Zelensky did a great job the first few months of the war.  He has been a bumbling idiot ever since. 

[The San Diegan]

On 1/4/2025 at 10:49 AM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

It's not cheerleading and nothing was demonstrably false in stating the Kursk incursion has been a disaster.  They have lost the vast majority of the land they captured and accomplished very little compared the losses in men and arms they couldn't afford.

It's speaking to the truth and reality of the situation.  If Provrosk falls it will be a catastrophe for the front line soldiers in the South East.  Russia will gain yet more territory and at a faster rate than at any point during the war.  It's insane that battle hardened elite units are being overwhelmed in Kursk when they could have made a difference here.  

You have constantly misjudged this war, TSD.  I remember warning you that the counter offensive was going to fail.  You were VERY optimistic.  It failed. I remember being the only one on the board saying the F16s would largely be ineffective.  They were.

Yes, Zelensky did a great job the first few months of the war.  He has been a bumbling idiot ever since. 

Except that it hasn't been a disaster, and has provided plenty of gains. I went to some length to articulate them; I cannot help it if you choose not to read or accept them.

You keep betting on the come on Russian successes - tbh it's almost weird. It's almost as if you want Russia to succeed. This is similarly illustrated by your arbitrary claims (e.g., "Kursk has been a disaster," or "the F-16s have been ineffective") despite information to the contrary. And then you reject any data points that run contrary to your assertion. Again, it's kinda weird amigo. And I don't think you're aware of just how much it comes off as if you're fine-tuning your jerk angles to give Ivan a happy ending.

You claim I have "constantly" misjudged this war. Bush league troll bait. I have simply aggregated and shared OSINT from respectable sources. And furthermore, all I am comfortable doing is analyzing ongoing operations as they unfold and as public-source information becomes available. But you on the other hand? You seemingly cheerlead for Russia's victory ahead of time; maybe you just don't realize you're doing it? 

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 1/4/2025 at 12:04 PM, The San Diegan said:

Except that it hasn't been a disaster, and has provided plenty of gains. I went to some length to articulate them; I cannot help it if you choose not to read or accept them.

You keep betting on the come on Russian successes - tbh it's almost weird. It's almost as if you want Russia to succeed. This is similarly illustrated by your arbitrary claims (e.g., "Kursk has been a disaster," or "the F-16s have been ineffective") despite information to the contrary. And then you reject any data points that run contrary to your assertion. Again, it's kinda weird amigo. And I don't think you're aware of just how much it comes off as if you're fine-tuning your jerk angles to give Ivan a happy ending.

You claim I have "constantly" misjudged this war. Bush league troll bait. I have simply aggregated and shared OSINT from respectable sources. And furthermore, all I am comfortable doing is analyzing ongoing operations as they unfold and as public-source information becomes available. But you on the other hand? You seemingly cheerlead for Russia's victory ahead of time; maybe you just don't realize you're doing it? 

No I WANT the war to end.  I value humanity more than whatever has been accomplished the past 18-24 months against Russia.  I want less dead and suffering Ukrainian men, women and children.  The reality is and has been for a LONG while that Ukraine will need to cede territory because they CAN NOT reclaim it let alone hold it.

I am LAMENTING the fact the outcome, ceding territory has been obvious for so long and people are needlessly dying and suffering while the Ukrainian position has only grown weaker.

Ending this war means accepting some hard reality.  Ukraine is on their Blackfoot and has been for a while.  They do not have the men to hold their lines.  The longer this goes on, the more territory will need to be ceded and the weaker their position to negotiate becomes.

 

[InnZoneU]

On 1/4/2025 at 11:04 AM, The San Diegan said:

Except that it hasn't been a disaster, and has provided plenty of gains. I went to some length to articulate them; I cannot help it if you choose not to read or accept them.

You keep betting on the come on Russian successes - tbh it's almost weird. It's almost as if you want Russia to succeed. This is similarly illustrated by your arbitrary claims (e.g., "Kursk has been a disaster," or "the F-16s have been ineffective") despite information to the contrary. And then you reject any data points that run contrary to your assertion. Again, it's kinda weird amigo. And I don't think you're aware of just how much it comes off as if you're fine-tuning your jerk angles to give Ivan a happy ending.

You claim I have "constantly" misjudged this war. Bush league troll bait. I have simply aggregated and shared OSINT from respectable sources. And furthermore, all I am comfortable doing is analyzing ongoing operations as they unfold and as public-source information becomes available. But you on the other hand? You seemingly cheerlead for Russia's victory ahead of time; maybe you just don't realize you're doing it? 

All he does is present one-sided Putin propaganda.  It's just....weird man.

Neither side is 'winning'. I could waste my time coming up with multiple links showing Ukraine is doing as great as Russia is.  And hey, if you're just gonna get run over by Russia then the entire EU should just give up and let Putin gets what he wants.  After all, they have no chance in stopping the Motherland, just roll over and concede.  England has no chance against Russia either, they might as well just give up.

 

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 1/4/2025 at 12:31 PM, InnZoneU said:

All he does is present one-sided Putin propaganda.  It's just....weird man.

Neither side is 'winning'. I could waste my time coming up with multiple links showing Ukraine is doing as great as Russia is.  And hey, if you're just gonna get run over by Russia then the entire EU should just give up and let Putin gets what he wants.  After all, they have no chance in stopping the Motherland, just roll over and concede.  England has no chance against Russia either, they might as well just give up.

 

Uhm, everything I have posted is from reputable sources.

And no, you couldn't find any of those links.  And yes, per every reputable WESTERN source is saying the same thing.  Ukraine is "losing".  They are and have been for over a year at a negative and ever increasingly so trajectory.

The rest of your post is nonsense.  Bringing this to a cold war is not rolling over.  It is the only solution.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

Ukraine not being able to sustain a war of attrition against Russia and Russia not being able to pose a conventional threat to any NATO country are both true statements.  You get they can both be true, right?

[The San Diegan]

On 1/4/2025 at 11:27 AM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

No I WANT the war to end.  I value humanity more than whatever has been accomplished the past 18-24 months against Russia.  I want less dead and suffering Ukrainian men, women and children.  The reality is and has been for a LONG while that Ukraine will need to cede territory because they CAN NOT reclaim it let alone hold it.

I am LAMENTING the fact the outcome, ceding territory has been obvious for so long and people are needlessly dying and suffering while the Ukrainian position has only grown weaker.

Ending this war means accepting some hard reality.  Ukraine is on their Blackfoot and has been for a while.  They do not have the men to hold their lines.  The longer this goes on, the more territory will need to be ceded and the weaker their position to negotiate becomes.

 

Riddle me this Halfman. If Ukraine's collapse was imminent and RU was enjoying such overwhelming success on the battlefield, then why the fuck is Putin - for the first time since RU's invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago - signaling a willingness to a) drop conditions for peace talks, and b) compromise from their longstanding "demands?"

Quote

 

Putin said on Thursday that Russia had no conditions to start talks with Ukraine and was ready to negotiate with anyone, including President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Link

What? Do you think he suddenly became a humanitarian? Lol.

 

The reality is Russia is at the end of their rope as well. And yet you continue to fail to assess the impacts of attrition on RU, let alone with the same degree of alacrity as you so desperately continue to do with Ukraine. I will revisit this thread after our game against each other in another hour.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

"There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare."

This is true for Russia and Ukraine.  You can disagree with me but I would hope everyone can join me in hoping for peace.

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 1/4/2025 at 1:10 PM, The San Diegan said:

Riddle me this Halfman. If Ukraine's collapse was imminent and RU was enjoying such overwhelming success on the battlefield, then why the fuck is Putin - for the first time since RU's invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago - signaling a willingness to a) drop conditions for peace talks, and b) compromise from their longstanding "demands?"

 

Link

What? Do you think he suddenly became a humanitarian? 😂

 

The reality is Russia is at the end of their rope as well. And yet you continue to fail to assess the impacts of attrition on RU, let alone with the same degree of alacrity as you so desperately do with regards to Ukraine. I will revisit this thread after our game against each other in another hour.

Ukraine's collapse is not imminent.  Never said anything like that.  Only that they will continue to lose territory at an ever increasing pace as they don't have the men or morale to continue this war of attrition, and they could have argued from a stronger position earlier.  Russia DOES have the upper hand right now.

Same reason Zelensky is willing to give up his demands. The war is horrific for both countries.  AND I would venture the instable and insane idiot entering the White House adds some impetus for both, as well. Ukraine is suffering more than Russia.  That is not debatable.  The war is being fought on their soil.  

 

 

[renoskier]

On 1/4/2025 at 12:10 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said:

"There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare."

This is true for Russia and Ukraine.  You can disagree with me but I would hope everyone can join me in hoping for peace.

of course everyone here wants peace...but the only ones who matter are Russia and Ukraine...

do either of them want peace?

will Ukraine willfully cede territory?

will Russia ever respect Ukraine's sovereignty?

until these questions are answered, you're just fartin' in the wind

 

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 1/4/2025 at 1:38 PM, renoskier said:

of course everyone here wants peace...but the only ones who matter are Russia and Ukraine...

do either of them want peace?

will Ukraine willfully cede territory?

will Russia ever respect Ukraine's sovereignty?

until these questions are answered, you're just fartin' in the wind

 

The soldiers don't want to fight anymore.  The Ukrainian people would rather end the war and give up some territory.  Putin and Zelensky each sound open to ending the war soon.

Send in NATO troops at the start of the cold war as a peace keeping force.  Rebuild Ukraine.  Allow NATO countries to recalculate and revamp their manufacturing capabilities to better suit large P2P conflicts.

The war will come to an end soon under the exact same circumstances it could have been ended earlier.  Ceding territory and denying Ukraine NATO status.  Only with countless lives lost and uncalcuable suffering that didn't need to happen.

[Sactowndog]

On 12/24/2024 at 8:31 AM, The San Diegan said:

Attrition is taking its toll on both sides for sure. Here's a fascinating video showing how the side representing free democracies and sovereignty is adapting - this guy's former infantry and I enjoy watching (most of) his videos:

 

Thanks for posting.  Very interesting.  I noted the beginning stating that some of the Baltics were close to sending troops to help.  They believe if they fall they will be next and those seeking “peace” without Russia being kicked out of Ukraine are foolish. 

[halfmanhalfbronco]

On 1/4/2025 at 3:41 PM, Sactowndog said:

Thanks for posting.  Very interesting.  I noted the beginning stating that some of the Baltics were close to sending troops to help.  They believe if they fall they will be next and those seeking “peace” without Russia being kicked out of Ukraine are foolish. 

There is zero chance of Russia being kicked out of Ukraine.  Like I told you 4 years ago.  Zelensky even admits it now.