HR_poke Posted December 3, 2024 Posted December 3, 2024 On 12/2/2024 at 8:16 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said: I pray and ultimately believe you will be wrong. I think this will end with ceding the occupied territory and a promise of no NATO inclusion. I am frustrated we did not TRY to have a real negotiation earlier. Even if you were ultimately correct and it fell apart. Even just a respite to allow Ukraine to rebuild their runways so they can use their F16s would have/will be huge. They can landmine the hell out of the the new front. If Russia had a hard time the first go around imagine the how more hesitant they would be with dozens of actual, flyable F16s and a fortified front with proper training. Anyways, I appreciate the way you engage. I've watched a couple videos from some professors at the naval war college. But beyond that I don't know much about the situation beyond headlines. I hope it gets resolved soon, and it's likely going to be Ukraine losing territory and never joining nato or the eu. Really all they have to do is wait out putin and russias demographic collapse and they can join nato at a later date. 2 Quote
halfmanhalfbronco Posted December 3, 2024 Posted December 3, 2024 On 12/2/2024 at 7:43 PM, HR_poke said: I've watched a couple videos from some professors at the naval war college. But beyond that I don't know much about the situation beyond headlines. I hope it gets resolved soon, and it's likely going to be Ukraine losing territory and never joining nato or the eu. Really all they have to do is wait out putin and russias demographic collapse and they can join nato at a later date. That's pretty much how I see it. It is also why Ukraine is pushing back Bidens insisting on mobilizing 18-25 year old men. They can't win this war but they can win the long game. That requires pushing out babies 1 Quote
happycamper Posted December 3, 2024 Posted December 3, 2024 On 12/2/2024 at 7:56 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said: Yes, I will believe what is now clearly obvious. Ukraine now is in a weaker position and will end up giving up more territory. They are rapidly losing ground at home and in Kursk, and the the support of the Ukrainian people to keep fighting. 18 months ago, Ukrain was in a far better position. Morale was still high. They had just had a successful surprise counter offensive. China was pissed. Compared to now? Yeah. We, our NATO partners and Zelensky fucked up. We refused to entertain any peace negotiation that was shy of Russia giving back all territory including Crimea. We never even fucking tried. this is magical thinking halfman. after the blitz to kiev failed, moscow's strategy was always "outlast the west". russia can't keep this offensive pace up. this offensive will culminate, probably even before the spring mud season. It is enormously expensive in men and materials to "grind Ukraine down". Russia has a huge stockpile of cold war era materiel but that stockpile isn't infinite and offensives like we are seeing are depleting them far faster than Russia can rebuild. Can Ukraine hold long enough to wear out Russia's ability to conduct offensive warfare? that's the key to the whole war. even at Russia's current more rapid rate of advance, it would take what, 5 years to advance to the dneiper? Russia certainly does not have the economy, manpower, or material stockpiles to last even 2 years at a rate approaching what they are spending this winter. Quote
happycamper Posted December 3, 2024 Posted December 3, 2024 On 12/2/2024 at 9:43 PM, HR_poke said: I've watched a couple videos from some professors at the naval war college. But beyond that I don't know much about the situation beyond headlines. I hope it gets resolved soon, and it's likely going to be Ukraine losing territory and never joining nato or the eu. Really all they have to do is wait out putin and russias demographic collapse and they can join nato at a later date. Russia doesn't have the trucks, tanks, ipcs, etc to keep up this war. at their rate of losses, they will no longer be able to conduct mechanized warfare before Kiev is threatened. Russia is also losing tubed artillery far faster than they can cast new barrels. Without overwhelming tubed artillery superiority, they cannot advance and likely can't hold positions. But all that is predicated on massive material support from the west. Russia has a lot more production capacity than Ukraine. we have to be their war chest if this is going to happen. Quote
HR_poke Posted December 3, 2024 Posted December 3, 2024 On 12/3/2024 at 7:10 AM, happycamper said: Russia doesn't have the trucks, tanks, ipcs, etc to keep up this war. at their rate of losses, they will no longer be able to conduct mechanized warfare before Kiev is threatened. Russia is also losing tubed artillery far faster than they can cast new barrels. Without overwhelming tubed artillery superiority, they cannot advance and likely can't hold positions. But all that is predicated on massive material support from the west. Russia has a lot more production capacity than Ukraine. we have to be their war chest if this is going to happen. They have the advantage of huge stockpiles of weapons in North Korea and China that are interchangeable with their own equipment. China has already decided it has no issue with giving them weapons. Ukraine is running out of men and ammo. We keep giving them expensive missiles when what they really need are artillery shells and howitzer barrels in mass that the west can't seem to produce. Russia is lobbing 10 shells to Ukraine's one. Tough to play defense and not get demoralized with that dynamic. Not to mention the mass desertions they are seeing in the south. The Kursk gamble didn't pay off like they hoped and they are soon going to have to withdraw those troops to supplement their defensive lines, or they will collapse. 2 Quote
happycamper Posted December 3, 2024 Posted December 3, 2024 On 12/3/2024 at 10:09 AM, HR_poke said: They have the advantage of huge stockpiles of weapons in North Korea and China that are interchangeable with their own equipment. China has already decided it has no issue with giving them weapons. Ukraine is running out of men and ammo. We keep giving them expensive missiles when what they really need are artillery shells and howitzer barrels in mass that the west can't seem to produce. Russia is lobbing 10 shells to Ukraine's one. Tough to play defense and not get demoralized with that dynamic. Not to mention the mass desertions they are seeing in the south. The Kursk gamble didn't pay off like they hoped and they are soon going to have to withdraw those troops to supplement their defensive lines, or they will collapse. Eh. Not as interchangeable as you'd think. And it's still a numbers game. Russia is losing artillery tubes like crazy. We have more expensive rockets 🤷♂️ that's what we emphasized production of because they work a lot better per soldier. As far as desertions, it is difficult to find an unbiased source. I came across this: Which... does not really follow halfman's "they are exhausted of war" narrative. But who knows how widespread that feeling is. 1 Quote
BroncoInferno Posted December 3, 2024 Posted December 3, 2024 On 12/3/2024 at 6:30 AM, happycamper said: Eh. Not as interchangeable as you'd think. And it's still a numbers game. Russia is losing artillery tubes like crazy. We have more expensive rockets 🤷♂️ that's what we emphasized production of because they work a lot better per soldier. As far as desertions, it is difficult to find an unbiased source. I came across this: Which... does not really follow halfman's "they are exhausted of war" narrative. But who knows how widespread that feeling is. Kudos for trying to validate the source. Quote
SWspartan Posted December 3, 2024 Author Posted December 3, 2024 Nevermind...I lost my train of thought. 🤣 Quote
halfmanhalfbronco Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 On 12/3/2024 at 8:30 AM, happycamper said: Eh. Not as interchangeable as you'd think. And it's still a numbers game. Russia is losing artillery tubes like crazy. We have more expensive rockets 🤷♂️ that's what we emphasized production of because they work a lot better per soldier. As far as desertions, it is difficult to find an unbiased source. I came across this: Which... does not really follow halfman's "they are exhausted of war" narrative. But who knows how widespread that feeling is. I mean multiple commanders, officers and infranty men all interviewed by the AP and CNN paint the same picture. Ukrainians are facing a desertion crises. Every analyst from the West agrees. Western estimates of up to 200k desertions. And Russia has China for all their manufacturing needs...They absolutely have enough stockpiles to continue this for years. Ukraine does not have the men. The desertionsl crises is real. Absolutely nobody disputes that. It's confirmed by Ukraine and the West and a major reason they are losing territory. Quote
halfmanhalfbronco Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 On 12/3/2024 at 8:09 AM, HR_poke said: They have the advantage of huge stockpiles of weapons in North Korea and China that are interchangeable with their own equipment. China has already decided it has no issue with giving them weapons. Ukraine is running out of men and ammo. We keep giving them expensive missiles when what they really need are artillery shells and howitzer barrels in mass that the west can't seem to produce. Russia is lobbing 10 shells to Ukraine's one. Tough to play defense and not get demoralized with that dynamic. Not to mention the mass desertions they are seeing in the south. The Kursk gamble didn't pay off like they hoped and they are soon going to have to withdraw those troops to supplement their defensive lines, or they will collapse. Good article on this, not sure if I posted already https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-invasion-west-focused-too-much-weapon-quantity-over-numbers-2024-11 Quote
happycamper Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 On 12/3/2024 at 7:19 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said: I mean multiple commanders, officers and infranty men all interviewed by the AP and CNN paint the same picture. Ukrainians are facing a desertion crises. Every analyst from the West agrees. Western estimates of up to 200k desertions. And Russia has China for all their manufacturing needs...They absolutely have enough stockpiles to continue this for years. Ukraine does not have the men. The desertionsl crises is real. Absolutely nobody disputes that. It's confirmed by Ukraine and the West and a major reason they are losing territory. This is... not really accurate, halfman. China isn't sending Russia tubes. China isn't sending them APCs. Hell, China doesn't have the tubes to replace what Russia is burning though and given their ambitions in Taiwan, they don't exactly want to light half their materiel on fire. Furthermore, armies are machines that destroy wealth. Food, oil, trucks, clothes, weapons, medical supplies... those 700k guys who are constantly dying and getting injured are a massive suck on the Russian economy. Their central interest rate is over 20%. They really cannot continue this for years. I don't think they have the manpower or weapons to continue the current offensive until April. While they are advancing it is at enormous cost. Quote
HR_poke Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 On 12/3/2024 at 5:27 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said: Good article on this, not sure if I posted already https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-invasion-west-focused-too-much-weapon-quantity-over-numbers-2024-11 Yeah, it's like we didn't learn anything from the Korean War. Spent too many years fighting against insurgents with limited resources. China overcame our technological superiority very quickly with sheer numbers of troops and ammo. 1 Quote
HR_poke Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 On 12/4/2024 at 5:57 AM, happycamper said: This is... not really accurate, halfman. China isn't sending Russia tubes. China isn't sending them APCs. Hell, China doesn't have the tubes to replace what Russia is burning though and given their ambitions in Taiwan, they don't exactly want to light half their materiel on fire. Furthermore, armies are machines that destroy wealth. Food, oil, trucks, clothes, weapons, medical supplies... those 700k guys who are constantly dying and getting injured are a massive suck on the Russian economy. Their central interest rate is over 20%. They really cannot continue this for years. I don't think they have the manpower or weapons to continue the current offensive until April. While they are advancing it is at enormous cost. China is mass producing 122mm artillery shells that Russian ran out of and couldn't produce in mass, in addition to western intelligence confirming the DPRK gave Russia 1 million artillery shells of various sizes including 122 mm and 152 mm 2 Quote
happycamper Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 On 12/4/2024 at 8:13 AM, HR_poke said: China is mass producing 122mm artillery shells that Russian ran out of and couldn't produce in mass, in addition to western intelligence confirming the DPRK gave Russia 1 million artillery shells of various sizes including 122 mm and 152 mm From what I've read, the DPRK ammo is not very high quality. It is less accurate and is wearing out the barrels of existing tubes much faster. To that point, it is getting to the point that it is the tubes that are the limiting factor for Russia. They don't have the production capacity to replace their losses in tubed artillery at all. From what I have read their tubed artillery stockpiles are ~6,000, when they started the war at around ~14,000 pieces. At that loss rate massed tubed artillery will become a non-factor, kind of like what has already happened to attack helicopters. Quote
SWspartan Posted December 4, 2024 Author Posted December 4, 2024 Europe quietly prepares for WWIII. https://www.newsweek.com/europe-preparations-world-war-3-baltic-states-dragons-teeth-air-defenses-1993930 Quote
halfmanhalfbronco Posted December 4, 2024 Posted December 4, 2024 On 12/4/2024 at 6:07 AM, HR_poke said: Yeah, it's like we didn't learn anything from the Korean War. Spent too many years fighting against insurgents with limited resources. China overcame our technological superiority very quickly with sheer numbers of troops and ammo. On 12/4/2024 at 5:57 AM, happycamper said: This is... not really accurate, halfman. China isn't sending Russia tubes. China isn't sending them APCs. Hell, China doesn't have the tubes to replace what Russia is burning though and given their ambitions in Taiwan, they don't exactly want to light half their materiel on fire. Furthermore, armies are machines that destroy wealth. Food, oil, trucks, clothes, weapons, medical supplies... those 700k guys who are constantly dying and getting injured are a massive suck on the Russian economy. Their central interest rate is over 20%. They really cannot continue this for years. I don't think they have the manpower or weapons to continue the current offensive until April. While they are advancing it is at enormous cost. This is another good read you two might appreciate. https://euro-sd.com/2024/09/articles/40149/inside-russias-2024-military-industrial-complex/ Russia has actually increased their ability to manufacture critical equipment, like tubes, and China is the world's top tube producer. Russia is far better positioned to a continued war of attrition. Quote
Madmartigan Posted December 5, 2024 Posted December 5, 2024 On 12/4/2024 at 4:08 PM, halfmanhalfbronco said: This is another good read you two might appreciate. https://euro-sd.com/2024/09/articles/40149/inside-russias-2024-military-industrial-complex/ Russia has actually increased their ability to manufacture critical equipment, like tubes, and China is the world's top tube producer. Russia is far better positioned to a continued war of attrition. Have read that to win the war Ukraine needs to inflict something like 7-8:1 in terms of russian:Ukrainian casualties. Not sure where that is now, because there isn't an accurate casualty count, but most agree it's 4-5:1. This is how Russia wages war and how it has won every major conflict they've been in. Ukraine doesn't have the manpower or equipment to achieve ultimate victory longterm. I don't see a scenario where this conflict ends without Ukraine surrendering some of its territory. Hope I am wrong. 1 Quote
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