Mass deportation

[CPslograd]

On 12/12/2024 at 8:26 PM, FresnoFacts said:

I have family who work in construction and the trades. When I was coming out of high school I had a union officer my family knew tell me he could get me in their apprenticeship program but I decided I wanted a different career.

Besides that earning power, if even 10%-20% of construction workers were deported what would the loss of that labor do to the pace of housing construction or housing prices?

I'm just not sure our native-born society views physical jobs as desirable or acceptable as they may have been viewed in the past. Many of those jobs now go to documented or undocumented immigrants instead of US-born workers.

When we have politicians in various states the last two years proposing reducing/eliminating teen/child labor laws it makes me think our labor problems are not just an immigration issue.

10-20% of construction workers aren't getting deported, that's a crazy number.  It's not like construction is booming right now anyway.  Sure, there might be some wage inflation, but I'm not sure that's all bad.  Teacher wages and public sector employees wages going up is inflationary too, but somehow that's never viewed as a problem.  It's only when blue collar non union workers wages rise that we view it as a problem because it's inflationary

I don't like the bolded sentence because it intentionally conflates legal and illegal immigration.  Legal immigrants aren't getting deported.  And again, the vast majority of the industry are either citizens or legal immigrants.

 

[thehowlin]

We’ll see. There are farmers raising the alarm about food production coming to a screeching halt if they lose their workers.

[CV147]

Mass deportation is probably a lie on the same vein as "Mexico will pay for it." Trump says a lot of racist shit to appease certain portions of his supporters, but I don't think he follows through on this one.

[CoachKenFTW]

Trump now has land to build concentration camps:

Texas offers Trump land on US-Mexico border for potential mass deportations | AP News

[azgreg]

https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/1867397303621021858

Quote

TRUMP-VOTING SOUTH DAKOTA FARMER: “Half our workers are foreign-born… it’s an open secret farms are held up by undocumented workers… if they round them up within 2 days we won’t have food… we have to trust (Trump) won’t do what they say they will.”

Interview video at the link.

[CoachKenFTW]

On 12/12/2024 at 6:43 PM, Old_SD_Dude said:

I’m not arguing that “farm labor will collapse.” I’m saying that few native-born Americans will take up the work, at least at current pay rates, and that domestically produced food prices will rise. Obviously tariffs will also increase the price of the massive amounts of produce  imported from Mexico. 

This is only part 1 of a two part plan. 

Part 2 is as follows: MAGA dissenters will be rounded up and convinced to perform the labor that non documented workers used to do. The best part about the plan is it will be deflationary, since the only pay you guys are going to get is MAGA social credits.

[Sactowndog]

On 12/12/2024 at 10:13 PM, CPslograd said:

The tariff thing is a different issue where I'm more inclined to agree with you.

In regards to the farm labor, unless the new immigration policy is terribly mismanaged I don't see a huge issue there.  I certainly don't think Biden's open borders brought down food prices by reducing labor costs, so I don't think restoring Obama and Trump levels of illegal immigration will cause a huge disruption in farm labor.  A lot of the recent migrants here can't find work.

Except the bolded isn’t what Trump has said he will do.  He plans to go far beyond that so he says.  Basically you are betting on Trump being less extreme than he claims and historically he has not governed in that manner.  

[Old_SD_Dude]

On 12/12/2024 at 10:21 PM, CPslograd said:

10-20% of construction workers aren't getting deported, that's a crazy number.  It's not like construction is booming right now anyway.  Sure, there might be some wage inflation, but I'm not sure that's all bad.  Teacher wages and public sector employees wages going up is inflationary too, but somehow that's never viewed as a problem.  It's only when blue collar non union workers wages rise that we view it as a problem because it's inflationary

I don't like the bolded sentence because it intentionally conflates legal and illegal immigration.  Legal immigrants aren't getting deported.  And again, the vast majority of the industry are either citizens or legal immigrants.

 

Construction is booming here, mainly apartments and ADUs. I think the numbers of undocumented construction workers are much higher than you think. It’s very easy to find multiple studies done in recent years putting the percentage of undocumented workers in the construction industry at between 20 and 25%, and at or near 50% in Texas and CA. From a University of Michigan Engineering Department study:

“An estimated 1.6 million immigrants work in the construction industry nationwide, comprising 20% of the industry’s total workforce. In certain states and locations, this percentage can be much larger. For example, 63 percent of New York City’s construction workforce are immigrants, and it is estimated that 40 percent of those workers are undocumented. This figure is similar to the entire state of Texas’ construction workforce where half of the workers (an estimated 400,000) are undocumented.”

https://limos.engin.umich.edu/deitabase/2024/05/28/undocumented-construction-workers-us/

 

 

[AztecAlien]

Put me down as pro immigration as long as people coming here to obtain a better life are documented and are here legally for national security reasons alone. 

The number of undocumented construction workers in unions is very low. I'm sure it happens. However, it's the non-union construction companies that mostly hire undocumented workers.

I joined the Carpenters Local 547 San Diego out of high school and mostly worked on heavy commercial concrete forms. It's currently Local 619 and includes several other trades. The Laborers Union workers that I worked side by side with were mostly Mexicans and Central Americans. I didn't know of any of them being undocumented. 

Not sure why anyone would argue and thinks it's ok to just let people that are undocumented or unaccounted for into the U.S. Especially this day and age. I'm also not buying that the farm and construction industries are going to collapse because of the deportation of mostly criminals. That's what the new administration is seeking to remove. It's the media that is making all the outrageous claims otherwise. 

[SWspartan]

On 12/12/2024 at 2:09 AM, InnZoneU said:

So Trump wants to remove the restriction on ICE going after illegals in churches, hospitals and schools. 

I almost hope this idiot actually tries doing this.  The optics are going to be so fuggin bad and a complete disaster.  It will blow up in their face.

Something tells me it's mostly bluster though.

I hope you're right. 

[CPslograd]

On 12/13/2024 at 5:43 PM, Old_SD_Dude said:

Construction is booming here, mainly apartments and ADUs. I think the numbers of undocumented construction workers are much higher than you think. It’s very easy to find multiple studies done in recent years putting the percentage of undocumented workers in the construction industry at between 20 and 25%, and at or near 50% in Texas and CA. From a University of Michigan Engineering Department study:

“An estimated 1.6 million immigrants work in the construction industry nationwide, comprising 20% of the industry’s total workforce. In certain states and locations, this percentage can be much larger. For example, 63 percent of New York City’s construction workforce are immigrants, and it is estimated that 40 percent of those workers are undocumented. This figure is similar to the entire state of Texas’ construction workforce where half of the workers (an estimated 400,000) are undocumented.”

https://limos.engin.umich.edu/deitabase/2024/05/28/undocumented-construction-workers-us/

 

 

I can't speak for Texas.  But nowhere near half of construction workers are undocumented in CA.  You have to submit I9's and all that shit.  Sure, they can obtain fake ones, but fifty percent is a difficult to believe number.  I just don't buy it.  I've paid undocumented/illegal immigrants to do work for me in a pinch, it's not as carefree and simple as you think when you are doing payroll.  When I did it, it had to be off the books, which means I couldn't claim their wages as an expense.

The ADU thing in San Diego is fascinating, I'm not sure it will end well.  What they are doing there was not the original intent of the laws.

How San Diego hacked state housing law to build ADU ‘apartment buildings’ - Santa Monica Daily Press

[Old_SD_Dude]

On 12/13/2024 at 10:02 PM, CPslograd said:

I can't speak for Texas.  But nowhere near half of construction workers are undocumented in CA.  You have to submit I9's and all that shit.  Sure, they can obtain fake ones, but fifty percent is a difficult to believe number.  I just don't buy it.  I've paid undocumented/illegal immigrants to do work for me in a pinch, it's not as carefree and simple as you think when you are doing payroll.  When I did it, it had to be off the books, which means I couldn't claim their wages as an expense.

The ADU thing in San Diego is fascinating, I'm not sure it will end well.  What they are doing there was not the original intent of the laws.

How San Diego hacked state housing law to build ADU ‘apartment buildings’ - Santa Monica Daily Press

Obviously I can’t speak to your experience, but everything I’ve looked up differs with it.

I think the ADUs are a good thing. SD desperately needs housing and you’re now seeing “for rent” signs in my neighborhood for the first time in 15 years. Most of my otherwise liberal home-owning neighbors in our already dense neighborhood hate it though. As far as those in the outer ‘burbs, they get no sympathy from me given the vastly disproportionate municipal resources they already receive.