Harris sounds like a moderate Republican

[Billings]

I think she does

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/harris-republican-trump-polls-frank-luntz-.html

[Chile_Ute]

I think she was farther left starting in the senate representing her constituents who are likely farther left than some.  She didn’t seem as far left as “the crew” and I always felt like she was more centrist…willing to at least meet the middle to discuss.  I do believe she has the ability to do that with whomever is center and to the right if they are willing to….more-so than her opponent.

i would love for her to point out our border and immigration have been a dumpster fire for the last 40+ years….plan to revamp the shot down legislation from this summer as a starting point.  I think that would draw more from the right’s undecided.

[aztech]

On 10/8/2024 at 4:30 PM, Chile_Ute said:

I think she was farther left starting in the senate representing her constituents who are likely farther left than some.  She didn’t seem as far left as “the crew” and I always felt like she was more centrist…willing to at least meet the middle to discuss.  I do believe she has the ability to do that with whomever is center and to the right if they are willing to….more-so than her opponent.

i would love for her to point out our border and immigration have been a dumpster fire for the last 40+ years….plan to revamp the shot down legislation from this summer as a starting point.  I think that would draw more from the right’s undecided.

If she wins I think she'll resubmit that border bill that Trump told the House to cancel.  If it passes, which I think it will, Trump and the MAGA morons will be history. 

[Chile_Ute]

On 10/8/2024 at 6:04 PM, aztech said:

If she wins I think she'll resubmit that border bill that Trump told the House to cancel.  If it passes, which I think it will, Trump and the MAGA morons will be history. 

I feel she should be blasting that from a loudspeaker.

[AlpineSummer]

On 10/8/2024 at 5:15 PM, Billings said:

I think she does

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/harris-republican-trump-polls-frank-luntz-.html

Using the description of capitalism and touting small business -- pretty good strategy.   Dems in the U.S. are for welfare capitalism. It's a matter of degrees and details.  Ditto for the Rs. 

[bornontheblue]

On 10/8/2024 at 6:59 PM, AlpineSummer said:

Using the description of capitalism and touting small business -- pretty good strategy.   Dems in the U.S. are for welfare capitalism. It's a matter of degrees and details.  Ditto for the Rs. 

I think there is a 99 percent chance that Harris  gets the popular, but 58 percent chance DT wins the EV 

[AlpineSummer]

On 10/8/2024 at 7:21 PM, bornontheblue said:

I think there is a 99 percent chance that Harris  gets the popular, but 58 percent chance DT wins the EV 

Not saying anything more than 50-50 in the EC yet, but the momentum feels in Harris' favor.  It's turnout that matters in those key places. Trump's shelf life for a solid majority seems well past the due date.  I think he's got an uphill climb and he doesn't even walk the golf course. 

[bornontheblue]

On 10/8/2024 at 7:31 PM, AlpineSummer said:

Not saying anything more than 50-50 in the EC yet, but the momentum feels in Harris' favor.  It's turnout that matters in those key places. Trump's shelf life for a solid majority seems well past the due date.  I think he's got an uphill climb and he doesn't even walk the golf course. 

We’ve talked about this before and now it’s just wait and find out. What makes me think that Harris is in trouble is the comparative margins from all three campaigns. Hillary and Biden did not poll this badly against Trump. There may be some other dynamic , or undercurrent that we don’t know about yet until the days after the election though. 

[Just_Chris]

On 10/8/2024 at 6:21 PM, bornontheblue said:

I think there is a 99 percent chance that Harris  gets the popular, but 58 percent chance DT wins the EV 

She's almost a lock for the EC but I have no idea how the EC will go.... my gut says Harris will end up winning comfortably but my brain says she won't. I'm just glad I can mail in my vote and be done with it. No going to polls because I think there could def be intimidation and violence especially in places like Arizona, GA and PA 

[AlpineSummer]

On 10/8/2024 at 7:37 PM, bornontheblue said:

We’ve talked about this before and now it’s just wait and find out. What makes me think that Harris is in trouble is the comparative margins from all three campaigns. Hillary and Biden did not poll this badly against Trump. There may be some other dynamic , or undercurrent that we don’t know about yet until the days after the election though. 

Different dynamics for sure.  Repeating, but I'm in the camp the polls have larger real margins by a fair bit.  I think they really only tell us this race is close.  Close or the winner-to-be might have a nice gap.  I think many things point to Harris as the one with potential gap.  I don't see Trump building anything beyond his core and low interest voters who lean/vote R.  That could be enough in the EC. 

[Just_Chris]

On 10/8/2024 at 6:37 PM, bornontheblue said:

We’ve talked about this before and now it’s just wait and find out. What makes me think that Harris is in trouble is the comparative margins from all three campaigns. Hillary and Biden did not poll this badly against Trump. There may be some other dynamic , or undercurrent that we don’t know about yet until the days after the election though. 

I also think a lot of people don't even bother with polls, with so many new and first time voters being millennials they aren't replying to polls or answering calls. 

[bornontheblue]

On 10/8/2024 at 8:26 PM, Just_Chris said:

I also think a lot of people don't even bother with polls, with so many new and first time voters being millennials they aren't replying to polls or answering calls. 

Weighted sampling can overcome this 

[renoskier]

On 10/8/2024 at 7:28 PM, bornontheblue said:

Weighted sampling can overcome this 

I think the dynamics have completely shifted since 2016. Back then most polls had Hillary comfortably ahead. Trump's voters seemed to be ashamed to admit they were voting for him. Today, they're are emboldened and won't shut up about their support.

Never saw any Trump yard signs in 2016...today in my neighborhood Trump signs are 2-1 over Harris.

[Just_Chris]

On 10/8/2024 at 7:28 PM, bornontheblue said:

Weighted sampling can overcome this 

I live around a lot of military people, many of them won't tell me they're supporting Harris but many have told me they don't support Trump. Now most of the non military expats I know overwhelmingly support her. Our votes are only a tiny sample so no real way to interpret what that means.  

[bornontheblue]

On 10/8/2024 at 8:39 PM, renoskier said:

I think the dynamics have completely shifted since 2016. Back then most polls had Hillary comfortably ahead. Trump's voters seemed to be ashamed to admit they were voting for him. Today, they're are emboldened and won't shut up about their support.

Never saw any Trump yard signs in 2016...today in my neighborhood Trump signs are 2-1 over Harris.

It’s anecdotal but interesting. Alpine says in Boise there are predominantly Harris Yard signs. Someone who  was here I can’t remember who it was that was saying rural WA that used to be solid Trump country has tons of  Harris signs. 
 

My street has only one discreet yard sign thank God and  it is for Trump . 

[BSUTOP25]

On 10/8/2024 at 8:48 PM, bornontheblue said:

It’s anecdotal but interesting. Alpine says in Boise there are predominantly Harris Yard signs. Someone who  was here I can’t remember who it was that was saying rural WA that used to be solid Trump country has tons of  Harris signs. 
 

My street has only one discreet yard sign thank God and  it is for Trump . 

Boise is a purple city. The closer one gets to the North End and downtown, the more blue it gets. The further one goes toward Mountain Home, Meridian, or Star, the more red it gets. 

When the so called “political refugees” move to Idaho, they’re choosing locations like West Ada and Canyon County. 

[HR_poke]

She sounds like a populist.  I'm kind of done with populists whether they be right or left.  

[bornontheblue]

On 10/9/2024 at 6:22 AM, HR_poke said:

She sounds like a populist.  I'm kind of done with populists whether they be right or left.  

Join me in not voting for either of them. Come on over to the none of the above side. 

 

[Sactowndog]

On 10/9/2024 at 2:04 AM, aztech said:

If she wins I think she'll resubmit that border bill that Trump told the House to cancel.  If it passes, which I think it will, Trump and the MAGA morons will be history. 

The Senate Dems will filibuster it without something for the Dreamers this time.  

[Just_Chris]

On 10/8/2024 at 7:48 PM, bornontheblue said:

It’s anecdotal but interesting. Alpine says in Boise there are predominantly Harris Yard signs. Someone who  was here I can’t remember who it was that was saying rural WA that used to be solid Trump country has tons of  Harris signs. 
 

My street has only one discreet yard sign thank God and  it is for Trump . 

I was reading about in a county in Washington that basically is the most accurate bellwether county in recent memory, they've nailed every election since 1980. I don't remember the name of the county but it's out on the Olympic Peninsula. Port Angeles is the biggest town.