VP Debate Game Thread

[azgreg]

On 10/2/2024 at 11:38 AM, Supersix said:

Honest question: If Vance and Walz were running for president, who would you vote for?

It's clearly Walz. Vance isn't qualified to hold public office of any kind much less the highest office in the land.

[The Barber]

On 10/2/2024 at 9:49 AM, retrofade said:

I wouldn't vote for JD "Couchfucker" Vance. 

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/jd-vance-couch-cushions/

 

[The Barber]

On 10/2/2024 at 9:50 AM, azgreg said:

It's clearly Walz. Vance isn't qualified to hold public office of any kind much less the highest office in the land.

I watched just a little bit of the debate.

What shocked me is how much better Vance and Walz are than Trump and Harris.

I think both would be better candidates and more qualified to be President than Harris and Trump.  

[RSF]

On 10/2/2024 at 11:53 AM, The Barber said:

I watched just a little bit of the debate.

What shocked me is how much better Vance and Walz are than Trump and Harris.

I think both would be better candidates and more qualified to be President than Harris and Trump.  

I think that's the one thing all the pundits have been agreeing on.  This one was downright civilized.

[bornontheblue]

On 10/2/2024 at 10:22 AM, AlpineSummer said:

It's going to be about turnout and momentum.  

The momentum for Harris has topped out. I don't think it will be enough as of now. Things can change quickly. 

 

[AztecAlien]

On 10/2/2024 at 10:53 AM, The Barber said:

I watched just a little bit of the debate.

What shocked me is how much better Vance and Walz are than Trump and Harris.

I think both would be better candidates and more qualified to be President than Harris and Trump.  

My wife and I said the same thing after the debate. But the media is still the division that needs to go away. But unfortunately, it won't, especially regarding social media. 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Barber]

On 10/2/2024 at 10:00 AM, bornontheblue said:

The momentum for Harris has topped out. I don't think it will be enough as of now. Things can change quickly. 

 

October Surprises, so far:

(1) Port Strike -- if this drags on, it could cause shortages and influence things.  Not sure if this will help one side or the other.

(2) Israel invasion of Lebanon / Iran missiles on Israel --  Harris desperately wants this to quiet down.  Biden has been completely ineffective in his calls to Israel for a ceasefire, to address the situation.   This is not good news in swing states with Muslim voters.  Partisan Democrats trying to pretend this doesn't matter.

(3) Trump probably going to do something stupid and offensive between now and November.   Democrats hoping for this.  Partisan Republicans trying to pretend this doesn't matter.

[AztecAlien]

On 10/2/2024 at 10:50 AM, azgreg said:

It's clearly Walz. Vance isn't qualified to hold public office of any kind much less the highest office in the land.

Kamala Harris says hi. 

 

 

[AlpineSummer]

On 10/2/2024 at 11:00 AM, bornontheblue said:

The momentum for Harris has topped out. I don't think it will be enough as of now. Things can change quickly. 

 

I don't know either way.  Don't confuse media buzz which has waned with the ground game.  The $$ and organization is on the Harris side there.  

For me, there are too many unknowns.  I don't know if the deaths of past Trump supporters and his past-expectation date appeal -- he does not appear to be expanding much if at all this election campaign -- are big enough drags to cost him the EC.  Harris will win the popular vote. I'm at 75% on that now. 

I don't know if the younger voter base will expand as some have predicted, and the trends of 2018-22 continue especially with the abortion issue on the table and up front in a number of states?   I'm omitting much, but probably still 50-50 on the EC.  

[retrofade]

On 10/2/2024 at 9:52 AM, The Barber said:

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/jd-vance-couch-cushions/

 

I'm not here to debate whether or not he did it. I'm just bringing awareness to the fact that some people have said that JD Vance fucks couches. 

[bornontheblue]

On 10/2/2024 at 11:10 AM, AlpineSummer said:

I don't know either way.  Don't confuse media buzz which has waned with the ground game.  The $$ and organization is on the Harris side there.  

For me, there are too many unknowns.  I don't know if the deaths of past Trump supporters and his past-expectation date appeal -- he does not appear to be expanding much if at all this election campaign -- are big enough drags to cost him the EC.  Harris will win the popular vote. I'm at 75% on that now. 

I don't know if the younger voter base will expand as some have predicted, and the trends of 2018-22 continue especially with the abortion issue on the table and up front in a number of states?   I'm omitting much, but probably still 50-50 on the EC.  

The polling margins for Harris are significantly below Biden in 20, and below Clinton in 2016. This should be setting off all kinds of concern and alarm bells inside the DNC. 

I would give Trump a 60 percent chance of victory at this point. 

 

[renoskier]

On 10/2/2024 at 9:20 AM, Supersix said:

Vance 

 

Knucklehead

 

so you'll vote for Harris since she clearly kicked Trump's ass? 

[AlpineSummer]

On 10/2/2024 at 11:14 AM, bornontheblue said:

The polling margins for Harris are significantly below Biden in 20, and below Clinton in 2016. This should be setting off all kinds of concern and alarm bells inside the DNC. 

I would give Trump a 60 percent chance of victory at this point. 

 

You moved up from 55%?

I don't know.  Polling is misunderstood, but I will say 2016 has very little import on 2024.  There is no hesitancy to admit pro-Trump, now.  I don't think 2020 matters much either.   The real voting demos are in flux and I go w/the notion margins of error are much higher than advertised.  That means a fair amount of uncertainty.  

Professor Lichtman came out some weeks back predicting Harris on his set of criteria. I see anecdotal signs here in blood red Idaho.  We have neighbors in our small 30 homes' subdivision with Harris/Walz signs out.  Never saw Clinton or Biden signs in '16 and '20.  Last week, a group of  mature ladies were at the busy corner of Meridian Rd. where Fairview Ave. becomes Cherry Ln. waving Harris/Walz signs at cars honking in approval.  I mentioned that before, but I never saw anything like that for Biden or Clinton. 

We'll know when we know.  We'll know what trends and demos and issues carried the times.  

[bornontheblue]

On 10/2/2024 at 11:27 AM, AlpineSummer said:

You moved up from 55%?

I don't know.  Polling is misunderstood, but I will say 2016 has very little import on 2024.  There is no hesitancy to admit pro-Trump, now.  I don't think 2020 matters much either.   The real voting demos are in flux and I go w/the notion margins of error are much higher than advertised.  That means a fair amount of uncertainty.  

Professor Lichtman came out some weeks back predicting Harris on his set of criteria. I see anecdotal signs her in blood red Idaho.  We have neighbors in our small 30 homes' subdivision with Harris/Walz signs out.  Never saw Clinton or Biden signs in '16 and '20.  Last week, a group of  mature ladies were at the busy corner of Meridian Rd. where Fairview Ave. becomes Cherry Ln. waving Harris/Walz signs at cars honking in approval.  I mentioned that before, but I never saw anything like that for Biden or Clinton. 

We'll know when we know.  We'll know what trends and demos and issues carried the times.  

Anecdotal evidence can be easily misleading though.  If they were reliable the 2020 Trump boat parades in Florida should have predicted a Trump 2020 landslide. 

I would say yes 55-60 percent chance Trump wins.  It is more accurate to rely on polling data than anecdotal stuff, and right now the margins are not where they need to be for Harris, IMO. I could be wrong  and if the election is over by 10 PM on that Tuesday night because Harris kicked his ass that would not surprise me either. 

 

 

[Mano]

On 10/2/2024 at 11:34 AM, bornontheblue said:

Anecdotal evidence can be easily misleading though.  If they were reliable the 2020 Trump boat parades in Florida should have predicted a Trump 2020 landslide. 

I would say yes 55-60 percent chance Trump wins.  It is more accurate to rely on polling data than anecdotal stuff, and right now the margins are not where they need to be for Harris, IMO. I could be wrong  and if the election is over by 10 PM on that Tuesday night because Harris kicked his ass that would not surprise me either. 

Election will be about turnout in the swing states. Trump will always have his base turn out, but the traditional Republicans have less enthusiasm this time around, not sure if that suppresses his turnout or not. Harris needs a strong turnout from women and pro choice voters.

[bornontheblue]

On 10/2/2024 at 11:42 AM, Mano said:

Election will be about turnout in the swing states. Trump will always have his base turn out, but the traditional Republicans have less enthusiasm this time around, not sure if that suppresses his turnout or not. Harris needs a strong turnout from women and pro choice voters.

I am just glad it is going to be over soon and we won't fight about politics again for 4 more years right?????!!!

 

 

[AlpineSummer]

On 10/2/2024 at 11:34 AM, bornontheblue said:

Anecdotal evidence can be easily misleading though.  If they were reliable the 2020 Trump boat parades in Florida should have predicted a Trump 2020 landslide. 

I would say yes 55-60 percent chance Trump wins.  It is more accurate to rely on polling data than anecdotal stuff, and right now the margins are not where they need to be for Harris, IMO. I could be wrong  and if the election is over by 10 PM on that Tuesday night because Harris kicked his ass that would not surprise me either. 

 

 

It's the change in enthusiasm that may, repeat, may be key to turnout.  Trump had something different, but it was never near a majority.  It's not just my local anecdotes, there have been a long series of them nationally.  Like all the Harris/Walz signs in Hillbilly Pennsylvania (areas in between Philly and Steel Town), or the continued large and enthusiastic rally crowds everywhere in all regions of the country.  That is a real change from before.  Whether it leads to victory in November, we'll see. 

[bornontheblue]

On 10/2/2024 at 11:47 AM, AlpineSummer said:

enthusiastic rally crowds everywhere in all regions of the country.  

But those are all fake crowds of people bussed in from other places... 

 

I am just kidding please nobody freak out on me.

We will see how it goes I am glad it's about done though , and if Trump is defeated hopefully its by a large enough margin that we don't have three months of  bullshit trying to overtu.... no wait Trump is probably going to do that anyways. 

 

[azgreg]

On 10/2/2024 at 12:07 PM, AztecAlien said:

Kamala Harris says hi. 

 

 

She's infinitely more qualified than Vance is.

[AztecAlien]

On 10/2/2024 at 12:05 PM, azgreg said:

She's infinitely more qualified than Vance is.

Is that because X's formally know as Twitter own Ron Filipkowski told you so?