New ACC Grant of Rights?

[Bison]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41307506/acc-clemson-florida-state-renew-discussions-revenue-distribution-model
 

New GOR would run through the 2030-31 season which is also the expiration date for the B1G & B12 media rights deals.

ESPN still needs to pick up the media rights option to 2036 (or 2030).  Not picking up the option means the ACC has just two seasons left on the ESPN deal after this season which is not ideal.

[SalinasSpartan]

I think what is going on is that pretty much all the major stakeholders in college football LIKE the GOR system. Conferences like it because it keeps schools from trying to leave, and media companies like it because they can be reasonably sure that when they sign a conference to a deal, they know exactly what kind of inventory they are getting and for how long. 
 

But the ACC knows that Clemson/FSU want out so badly they will drag this fight out and they have non-zero chance at doing something basically NOBODy else wants: killing the GOR system. 
 

So, the ACC is looking for a way to keep FSU/Clemson from even trying to blow up the system. And they are trying to do that by not only paying them off to keep them content while they wait to leave, but also moving the date they can leave up 5 years. If we use OUT‘s Big 12 exit as a model, it means that either the B1G or SEC (probably the B1G) will send out invites in 2028.  
 

So basically this potential deal is being made to pacify the ACC’s top schools for 4ish years so the GOR system stays in place.

[Wyobraska]

Sounds like an absolute mess trying to figure out TV ratings as a way to make more money.  Reminds me of the old ESPN clause the MW had.  That was a debacle.  This is only going to piss the schools off in the long run, but it won't matter because the higher value schools will be gone in 4 years if this passes.  

I wonder if Memphis is trying to sort through this mess to figure out their long term plans. 

[CPslograd]

On 9/17/2024 at 8:21 PM, Bison said:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41307506/acc-clemson-florida-state-renew-discussions-revenue-distribution-model
 

New GOR would run through the 2030-31 season which is also the expiration date for the B1G & B12 media rights deals.

ESPN still needs to pick up the media rights option to 2036 (or 2030).  Not picking up the option means the ACC has just two seasons left on the ESPN deal after this season which is not ideal.

You gotta admit, it would be poetic if Cal or Stanford benefitted from the "success" model.

I know it's not in place this season, but man, I want the Golden Bears to beat the Seminoles this weekend.  And I've never been accused of being a Cal fan.

[dtd]

On 9/18/2024 at 1:13 AM, CPslograd said:

You gotta admit, it would be poetic if Cal or Stanford benefitted from the "success" model.

I know it's not in place this season, but man, I want the Golden Bears to beat the Seminoles this weekend.  And I've never been accused of being a Cal fan.

This game absolutely screams classic heartbreaking CAL loss. I hope not. 

[CPslograd]

On 9/17/2024 at 11:19 PM, dtd said:

This game absolutely screams classic heartbreaking CAL loss. I hope not. 

Damn, aint that the truth.  

[CPslograd]

On 9/17/2024 at 11:19 PM, dtd said:

This game absolutely screams classic heartbreaking CAL loss. I hope not. 

I agreed at first, but upon further reflection, what would be even more Cal like would be.....

Beat the Noles this weekend, get a lot of hype, sell out Strawberry Canyon against the Canes the following weekend, then either get boatraced, or snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[dtd]

On 9/18/2024 at 1:59 AM, CPslograd said:

I agreed at first, but upon further reflection, what would be even more Cal like would be.....

Beat the Noles this weekend, get a lot of hype, sell out Strawberry Canyon against the Canes the following weekend, then either get boatraced, or snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Miami is going to uncle rape CAL, unless their coach somehow has a historical fuckup. But what are the odds of that? 

[stanfordchef]

On 9/17/2024 at 11:13 PM, CPslograd said:

You gotta admit, it would be poetic if Cal or Stanford benefitted from the "success" model.

I know it's not in place this season, but man, I want the Golden Bears to beat the Seminoles this weekend.  And I've never been accused of being a Cal fan.

Free Shoes U has quit on the season already. Bet Kal heavily in this one. 

[CPslograd]

In regards to the ACC.  

Let's say Clemson and Florida St find a way out in 5 years or so.  And then let's say UNC and Miami join the Big 10, which seems plausible.

Wouldn't the ACC just need to add UCONN, Villanova, and Georgetown?  If the tv contract is comparable to the Big 12, and I think it would be, it seems like the ACC would just keep on trucking.  (Yes I know Villanova plays FCS football, but they'd figure something out to be in a league with Duke, Syracuse, Uconn, and Georgetown.)

I don't see a big spread in tv value between Syracuse, Pitt, UVA, NCST, BC, Duke, Cal, Stanford versus the Arizona schools, Utah schools, Texas Tech and TCU.

[Wyobraska]

On 9/18/2024 at 11:39 AM, CPslograd said:

In regards to the ACC.  

Let's say Clemson and Florida St find a way out in 5 years or so.  And then let's say UNC and Miami join the Big 10, which seems plausible.

Wouldn't the ACC just need to add UCONN, Villanova, and Georgetown?  If the tv contract is comparable to the Big 12, and I think it would be, it seems like the ACC would just keep on trucking.  (Yes I know Villanova plays FCS football, but they'd figure something out to be in a league with Duke, Syracuse, Uconn, and Georgetown.)

I don't see a big spread in tv value between Syracuse, Pitt, UVA, NCST, BC, Duke, Cal, Stanford versus the Arizona schools, Utah schools, Texas Tech and TCU.

I don't think it stops there.  

If schools find a way out, then more ACC schools will be at play.  

UVA and VT could possibly each go to B1G and SEC.  Populous state and expands their footprint.  I see UVA to B1G for academics and VT to SEC

Pitt and Louisville could go Big 12.  NCST as well.  

GT is in play as well.  

What does that do to the ND agreement?

The most valuable schools will get picked off and I think the Big 12 looks a lot better TV deal wise than the ACC.  

I think it will be a tiered system for sure going forward that looks like this

B1G and SEC

Big 12

----------------------------------

Big drop and now G7 conferences 

PAC 12 and reconfigured ACC

Original Gs

 

[CPslograd]

On 9/18/2024 at 10:52 AM, Wyobraska said:

I don't think it stops there.  

If schools find a way out, then more ACC schools will be at play.  

UVA and VT could possibly each go to B1G and SEC.  Populous state and expands their footprint.  I see UVA to B1G for academics and VT to SEC

Pitt and Louisville could go Big 12.  NCST as well.  

GT is in play as well.  

What does that do to the ND agreement?

The most valuable schools will get picked off and I think the Big 12 looks a lot better TV deal wise than the ACC.  

I think it will be a tiered system for sure going forward that looks like this

B1G and SEC

Big 12

----------------------------------

Big drop and now G7 conferences 

PAC 12 and reconfigured ACC

Original Gs

 

Maybe, who knows.

If TV didn't want Cal or Stanford in the Big, I don't know why they would want anyone else besides UNC and Miami (assuming Free Shoes and Clemson go to the SEC).

Then the next question is would the ACC TV deal be competitive with the Big 12 one.  That would determine if the Big 12 could pluck ACC schools, or vice versa, or if it's essentially a stalemate.  My guess is that it would be comparable, but obviously I have no way of knowing that.

[SalinasSpartan]

On 9/18/2024 at 10:39 AM, CPslograd said:

In regards to the ACC.  

Let's say Clemson and Florida St find a way out in 5 years or so.  And then let's say UNC and Miami join the Big 10, which seems plausible.

Wouldn't the ACC just need to add UCONN, Villanova, and Georgetown?  If the tv contract is comparable to the Big 12, and I think it would be, it seems like the ACC would just keep on trucking.  (Yes I know Villanova plays FCS football, but they'd figure something out to be in a league with Duke, Syracuse, Uconn, and Georgetown.)

I don't see a big spread in tv value between Syracuse, Pitt, UVA, NCST, BC, Duke, Cal, Stanford versus the Arizona schools, Utah schools, Texas Tech and TCU.

I think, at the very least, the B1G/SEC/Big 12 all go to 20, with either the B1G or SEC getting Notre Dame in Olympic sports with a scheduling agreement.
 

The B1G will bring in UVA and probably Notre Dame.

The SEC will bring in Clemson/Florida State. 
 

That puts the SEC at 18 and the B1G at 19. One of them will get UNC, who they will both want. That leaves two more schools. If the B1G misses out on UNC I think they bring in Stanford to get to 20. Then the SEC brings in whoever else they want. Then at that point the Big 12 will be more appealing than the ACC minus 7 of their best brands, so the Big 12 will be able to bring in whoever they want; though UConn could be one of those 4 schools, as could some Pac schools. 
 

So you’re left with anywhere from 7 to 11 schools in the ACC when all is said and done. Those leftovers will be able to poach from the American, but it remains to be seen how the new Pac looks to know if the ACC would come out ahead of them. If all the schools brought in to the Power 2 and Big 12 are from the ACC, the Pac might be able to lure Cal back along with SMU and leapfrog the ACC in the pecking order. 

[Wyobraska]

On 9/18/2024 at 11:56 AM, CPslograd said:

Maybe, who knows.

If TV didn't want Cal or Stanford in the Big, I don't know why they would want anyone else besides UNC and Miami (assuming Free Shoes and Clemson go to the SEC).

Then the next question is would the ACC TV deal be competitive with the Big 12 one.  That would determine if the Big 12 could pluck ACC schools, or vice versa, or if it's essentially a stalemate.  My guess is that it would be comparable, but obviously I have no way of knowing that.

Virginia is the 12th largest state by population and neither P2 conference has a school there.  I could see them wanting in.  

I could see the B1G wanting into GA with a really good school like GT.  

Stanford and Cal might be big on the West Coast but no one nationally really gives a shit about them.  I can easily see why TV wouldn't want them.  

I personally think the Big 12 deal will be better than the ACC deal and schools like Pitt and Louisville could see a future there.  Syracuse might be interested for basketball if the other ACC schools left. 

The ACC would be left with smaller private schools like Duke, Wake, BC, and SMU plus other less desirable public universities that the other 3 conferences didn't want.  I don't see that TV deal being as high. 

I could absolutely be wrong and maybe I'm thinking too many schools are trying to leave the ACC.  I think the don't get left behind factor comes into play with the ACC just like it did with the old Big (NU, Mizzou, CU, etc), PAC 12 and now MW.  Schools get nervous and start looking for life boats.  

[CPslograd]

On 9/18/2024 at 11:12 AM, Wyobraska said:

Virginia is the 12th largest state by population and neither P2 conference has a school there.  I could see them wanting in.  

I could see the B1G wanting into GA with a really good school like GT.  

Stanford and Cal might be big on the West Coast but no one nationally really gives a shit about them.  I can easily see why TV wouldn't want them.  

I personally think the Big 12 deal will be better than the ACC deal and schools like Pitt and Louisville could see a future there.  Syracuse might be interested for basketball if the other ACC schools left. 

The ACC would be left with smaller private schools like Duke, Wake, BC, and SMU plus other less desirable public universities that the other 3 conferences didn't want.  I don't see that TV deal being as high. 

I could absolutely be wrong and maybe I'm thinking too many schools are trying to leave the ACC.  I think the don't get left behind factor comes into play with the ACC just like it did with the old Big (NU, Mizzou, CU, etc), PAC 12 and now MW.  Schools get nervous and start looking for life boats.  

No one gives a shit about UVA or GT football either.

[Wyobraska]

On 9/18/2024 at 12:15 PM, CPslograd said:

No one gives a shit about UVA or GT football either.

Each one serves a purpose though unlike Cal or Stanford.  

UVA gets a conference into the 12th most populous state 

GT gets the B1G into a great recruiting area and more eyes down South.  GT is a great school. Georgia is the 8th most populous state.  

Cal and Stanford are redundant for the most part since they are already in CA (although not Northern CA).  

 

[CPslograd]

On 9/18/2024 at 11:24 AM, Wyobraska said:

Each one serves a purpose though unlike Cal or Stanford.  

UVA gets a conference into the 12th most populous state 

GT gets the B1G into a great recruiting area and more eyes down South.  GT is a great school. Georgia is the 8th most populous state.  

Cal and Stanford are redundant for the most part since they are already in CA (although not Northern CA).  

 

I hear you.  I just can't see the members of the big 10 willing to take paycuts for UVA or GT.  

I don't know.  After the sacking of the Pac12 the whole thing seems to be spiraling to a bad ending at some point.

[NorthWestCowboy]

On 9/17/2024 at 10:47 PM, Wyobraska said:

Sounds like an absolute mess trying to figure out TV ratings as a way to make more money.  Reminds me of the old ESPN clause the MW had.  That was a debacle.  This is only going to piss the schools off in the long run, but it won't matter because the higher value schools will be gone in 4 years if this passes.  

I wonder if Memphis is trying to sort through this mess to figure out their long term plans. 

Do we know yet how long the PAC-6 ‘long-term’ GoR is?  I would think this news of the ACC considering to change the GoR termination to 2030 does give Memphis a lot to think about.  I have a hard time thinking a ‘long-term’ GoR that the PAC-6 are reporting would only be 5 years.

[CougarFrog]

If the ACC can settle the lawsuits and avoid impolsion for 5 years, then that impacts everyone else.  The ACC will go back to being an also-ran FB conference that is a top BB conference, as it was prior to FSU joining (and even then, for the first decade, the rest of the conference was pathetic).

This means the AAC won't get raided by the ACC and Memphis and Tulane are stuck in the AAC without the 4 best teams from just a few years ago, and really on par, at best with CUSA and the Sun Belt (though the Sun Belt plays far better football overall than the AAC, the academics are far lower).  

Will the PAC6 be more attractive to Memphis and Tulane than staying in the AAC with no short term hope to join SMU?  Maybe. It makes the Memphis/Tulane idea more likely.   I don't think it is a good idea, as the PAC would be better focused on regional play. 

[Bison]

I remember the ACC being decent in football before FSU joined.  GT shared the 1990 NC with CU and even during that season, UVA was ranked #1 at a point.  If there is something lacking in FBS conference, it's a private school centric conference and that is what the ACC could morph into.