clpp01 Posted October 31 Posted October 31 On 10/30/2024 at 8:21 PM, retrofade said: Doing something whether women like it or not is pretty on brand for him. 3 1 1
stanfordchef Posted October 31 Posted October 31 On 10/30/2024 at 8:21 PM, retrofade said: Damn that’s some wild bronzer hes got goin on there
UNLV2001 Posted October 31 Posted October 31 On 10/30/2024 at 4:48 PM, SalinasSpartan said: That’s pretty wild, don’t think I’ve ever heard a plot to win the EC by having states refuse to certify election results so a candidate can “win” with less than 270 EC votes. It’s clever, albeit frightening to think about. The one post Civil War election was about the only time it was used ---- Never was it trotted out as an option / strategy / scheme to overturn the vote like cult the LOSS has assembled
BSUTOP25 Posted October 31 Posted October 31 On 10/30/2024 at 10:05 PM, UNLV2001 said: Spin those Oompa Loompas around and move their faces closer to the middle of Trump you have a very accurate depiction of @bornontheblue and @Aslowhiteguy. 10
TSpoke Posted October 31 Posted October 31 https://x.com/mattmfm/status/1851765350477754842 Trump is not well. He is worse than Biden physically as well as mentally. (not sure why tweets stopped embedding)
Spaztecs Posted October 31 Posted October 31 On 10/31/2024 at 7:35 AM, TSpoke said: https://x.com/mattmfm/status/1851765350477754842 Trump is not well. He is worse than Biden physically as well as mentally. (not sure why tweets stopped embedding) And the MSM is hiding it. Someone actually believes Trump's threats
Bison Posted October 31 Posted October 31 Dropped my ballot off in the mail at a public library yesterday. 1
Akkula Posted October 31 Posted October 31 Josseli Barnica Died in Texas After Waiting 40 Hours for Miscarriage Care — ProPublica The fetus was on the verge of coming out, its head pressed against her dilated cervix; she was 17 weeks pregnant and a miscarriage was “in progress,” doctors noted in hospital records. At that point, they should have offered to speed up the delivery or empty her uterus to stave off a deadly infection, more than a dozen medical experts told ProPublica. But when Barnica’s husband rushed to her side from his job on a construction site, she relayed what she said the medical team had told her: “They had to wait until there was no heartbeat,” he told ProPublica in Spanish. “It would be a crime to give her an abortion.” For 40 hours, the anguished 28-year-old mother prayed for doctors to help her get home to her daughter; all the while, her uterus remained exposed to bacteria. Three days after she delivered, Barnica died of an infection. 1 4
RSF Posted October 31 Posted October 31 Because the actual Commandment is 'Thou shall not commit adultery or voting against thy husband's wishes'. Jesse Watters said that he would consider his wife voting for Kamala Harris the same as if she was having an extramarital affair. The Fox News co-host told panelists on The Five that if he discovered second wife, Emma DiGiovine, was secretly backing the vice president, it would be “D-Day” for their marriage. Watters was discussing an ad voiced by Julia Roberts encouraging women to defy their MAGA husbands and vote for Harris in the privacy of the ballot booth. “If I found out Emma was going to the voting booth and pulling the lever for Harris, that’s the same thing as having an affair,” he said. “That violates the sanctity of our marriage. What else is she keeping from me? What is she lying about?” he continued. “Why would she do that and vote Harris? Why would she say she was voting… If I caught her and she said, ‘I lied to you for the last four years.’” “So you’d admit you’d intimidate…” Jeanine Pirro interrupted. “It’s over, Emma!” Watters continued. “That would be D-Day!” Watters married DiGiovine, an associate producer who worked on his show Watters World, in January 2020 with guests including Donald Trump Jr., Kimberly Guilfoyle, and Eric and Lara Trump. He admitted cheating on ex-wife Noelle with DiGiovione in 2017, reported the Daily Mail. Watters divorced Noelle after 10 years of marriage in 2019.
Akkula Posted October 31 Posted October 31 Donald Trump does a lot of things to women, whether they like it or not...including grabbing them by the pussy. The biggest questions I would have is who is going to protect women from their supposed "protector" who has now figuratively grabbed 150 million females in the USA by the pussy? The pussy grabber is the "protector" of you little girls who need his protection since you have no agency or power of your own. 1
FresnoFacts Posted October 31 Posted October 31 Gen Z'ers have been sharing and commenting on Trump's Access Hollywood audio on Tik Tok and other social media the past few weeks. Eight years ago they were pre-teens and teens who may not have understood or even paid much attention to it. Now they are voting-age with an adult understanding of what he said. Many Gen Z women are especially horrified by the comments. Will that motivate some in Gen Z to turn-out and vote against Trump? We'll see. "The resurfaced audio has kicked off a viral TikTok maelstrom of young women filming their reactions to hearing the audio, eight years after the clip’s release. “When your father who has 6 daughters and 4 granddaughters who is also a men’s pastor is voting for this man again,” reads one video caption. “It’s honestly a slap in our face.” " https://www.fastcompany.com/91218677/trumps-access-hollywood-tape-is-making-the-rounds-on-tiktok More coverage: https://people.com/gen-z-discovering-trump-access-hollywood-tape-tiktok-8737086 https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/donald-trump-access-hollywood-tape-gen-z-tiktok-b2638545.html https://www.vox.com/culture/381187/trump-access-hollywood-video-gen-z-tiktok
InnZoneU Posted October 31 Posted October 31 On 10/30/2024 at 9:04 PM, UNLV2001 said: Actual unedited photo !! LOL seriously WTF is that? No seriously. Who looks in the mirror and goes, that's my look!! Nobody around him tells him he looks like a fckn clown, that is the best part. 1
azgreg Posted October 31 Posted October 31 https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-harris-normal-polling-error-blowout/story?id=115283593 Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout The race is uncertain, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be close. In the final days before the 2020 presidential election, polls generally pointed to a clear victory for now-President Joe Biden. But when the votes were counted, it turned out the polls had overestimated him — Biden won, but by the skin of his teeth. That, of course, was similar to what happened in 2016, when former President Donald Trump significantly outperformed the polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win a surprise Electoral College victory despite relatively accurate national polls. This raises two questions for 2024: First, what would happen if the polls are off again? And second, how likely is it that the polls will be off by as much as they were in 2016 or 2020? Either Trump or Harris could win comfortably In 2020, polls overestimated Biden's margin over Trump by about 4 percentage points in competitive states. As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That means that, if the polling error from 2020 repeats itself, Trump would win all seven swing states and 312 Electoral College votes. Of course, if the polls are off, it won't necessarily benefit Trump. The direction of polling error is impossible to predict in advance, and polls have overestimated Republicans plenty of times in the past. In a scenario where the polls overestimate Trump's margin by 4 points in every state, Harris would win all seven swing states and 319 electoral votes. Note that neither of these are particularly close outcomes, at least in the Electoral College. Some amount of polling error is normal Both of these outcomes — and everything in between — are very much on the table next week. But are these scenarios actually likely, or more like outside possibilities? Well, that's where the work we do for our election forecasting model can be helpful. As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, our forecast gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance to win the White House and Harris a near-identical 48-in-100 chance. The model arrives at that probability by calculating how many Electoral College votes each candidate would win given certain amounts of polling error in their favor, and then counting up how many times each candidate wins among these simulations. (More about that in our methodology.) Based on how much polls have been off in the past, our election model estimates that the average polling error in competitive states this year will be 3.8 points on the margin.* This error is not uniform across states — for example, states with different demographics tend to have different levels of polling error — but, generally speaking, when polls overestimate a candidate, they tend to overestimate them across the board. In other words, the model is expecting a roughly 2020-sized polling error — although not necessarily in the same direction as 2020. (In 50 percent of the model's simulations, Trump beats his polls, and 50 percent of the time, Harris does.)
sjsbuff Posted October 31 Posted October 31 On 10/30/2024 at 9:04 PM, UNLV2001 said: Actual unedited photo !! Fucking creepy/gross. To the nth degree...
InnZoneU Posted October 31 Posted October 31 On 10/31/2024 at 10:13 AM, azgreg said: https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-harris-normal-polling-error-blowout/story?id=115283593 Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout The race is uncertain, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be close. In the final days before the 2020 presidential election, polls generally pointed to a clear victory for now-President Joe Biden. But when the votes were counted, it turned out the polls had overestimated him — Biden won, but by the skin of his teeth. That, of course, was similar to what happened in 2016, when former President Donald Trump significantly outperformed the polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win a surprise Electoral College victory despite relatively accurate national polls. This raises two questions for 2024: First, what would happen if the polls are off again? And second, how likely is it that the polls will be off by as much as they were in 2016 or 2020? Either Trump or Harris could win comfortably In 2020, polls overestimated Biden's margin over Trump by about 4 percentage points in competitive states. As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That means that, if the polling error from 2020 repeats itself, Trump would win all seven swing states and 312 Electoral College votes. Of course, if the polls are off, it won't necessarily benefit Trump. The direction of polling error is impossible to predict in advance, and polls have overestimated Republicans plenty of times in the past. In a scenario where the polls overestimate Trump's margin by 4 points in every state, Harris would win all seven swing states and 319 electoral votes. Note that neither of these are particularly close outcomes, at least in the Electoral College. Some amount of polling error is normal Both of these outcomes — and everything in between — are very much on the table next week. But are these scenarios actually likely, or more like outside possibilities? Well, that's where the work we do for our election forecasting model can be helpful. As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, our forecast gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance to win the White House and Harris a near-identical 48-in-100 chance. The model arrives at that probability by calculating how many Electoral College votes each candidate would win given certain amounts of polling error in their favor, and then counting up how many times each candidate wins among these simulations. (More about that in our methodology.) Based on how much polls have been off in the past, our election model estimates that the average polling error in competitive states this year will be 3.8 points on the margin.* This error is not uniform across states — for example, states with different demographics tend to have different levels of polling error — but, generally speaking, when polls overestimate a candidate, they tend to overestimate them across the board. In other words, the model is expecting a roughly 2020-sized polling error — although not necessarily in the same direction as 2020. (In 50 percent of the model's simulations, Trump beats his polls, and 50 percent of the time, Harris does.) Polling became totally unscientific about 20 or so years ago. Very few people answer phone calls or door knocks anymore. Wherever you setup to get a face to face poll answer is rife with bias. Setup a booth at a UFC event and another at a WNBA game, and you'll get wildly different results. Honestly, nowadays I think they just work off metrics and bullshit their way to 'prediction' results.
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