bornontheblue Posted June 11 Posted June 11 If the election were today late stage dementia Joe would lose.
bornontheblue Posted June 11 Author Posted June 11 @mugtang . Still trying to figure the board out. Please move to politics.
AlpineSummer Posted June 11 Posted June 11 It's not that hard to figure out how to post in "Politics" although the aforementioned dementia may be a factor. 1 1 3
azgreg Posted June 11 Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 11:00 AM, bornontheblue said: If the election were today late stage dementia Joe would lose. Based on what?
bornontheblue Posted June 11 Author Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 12:18 PM, azgreg said: Based on what? Polling data. Its out there.
azgreg Posted June 11 Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 11:19 AM, bornontheblue said: Polling data. Its out there. The polling that you guys have been railing against for the last decade? The same polling that democrats have been out performing by 5-10 points? That polling? 1
stanfordchef Posted June 11 Posted June 11 I think Trump wins. I hope not. But that’s what my guy is telling me. 1
azgreg Posted June 11 Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 11:26 AM, Joe from Wyo said: I think Trump wins. I hope not. But that’s what my guy is telling me. I think Biden wins by a larger margin than he did last time. 1
bornontheblue Posted June 11 Author Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 12:23 PM, azgreg said: The polling that you guys have been railing against for the last decade? The same polling that democrats have been out performing by 5-10 points? That polling? The last two elections the Democrat candidates underperformed the polling data. Trump has never held this long of a sustained lead in the polling data in either 16 or 20., and he is leading in EVERY swing state which he has also never done. At this point in 2016 Hillary had about a three point lead, and in 2020 Dementia Joe had about an eight point lead. Go ahead and form a conclusion from that. No president who has had the terrible approval ratings of Biden have won an election in a generation. In deep blue states where Joe will surely win, the margins are much closer than 16 or 20 There are many other headwinds that Joe faces that could be added to the list.
bornontheblue Posted June 11 Author Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 12:26 PM, Joe from Wyo said: I think Trump wins. I hope not. But that’s what my guy is telling me. I am not voting for president. I am just skipping that part of the ballot. I agree, Trump wins. He could possible even get the popular vote. 1
bornontheblue Posted June 11 Author Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 12:32 PM, Mano said: So, Biden should mainly concentrate on Pennsylvania. To me they key states are AZ, NV, and GA. They are the reason Biden won in 20. and if Joe doesn't figure it out quick they will be the reason he loses in 24.
stanfordchef Posted June 11 Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 11:27 AM, azgreg said: I think Biden wins by a larger margin than he did last time. Idk man. He’s got a lot of headwinds and Trumps people don’t seem to care he’s a felon now. Going to be an interesting few months.
bornontheblue Posted June 11 Author Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 12:27 PM, azgreg said: I think Biden wins by a larger margin than he did last time. Based on what ? Prayers? a hunch ? Hope? Certainly not data
azgreg Posted June 11 Posted June 11 Anybody who puts any stock in polling data this election deserves all the derision they receive. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/dems-are-overperforming-in-special-elections-is-it-a-clue-for-biden-vs-trump/ar-AA1eOXTd An analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean -- or the relative liberal or conservative history -- of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties, too. For instance, the Democratic candidate in a Wisconsin State Assembly special election last month lost by just 7 points in an area where Republicans have a 22-point edge and where Trump beat Biden by almost 17 points in 2020. In a New Hampshire special election in May for a state House seat, the Democrat won by 43 points, far beyond the party's estimated 23-point edge in the district. 1
Mano Posted June 11 Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 12:34 PM, bornontheblue said: To me they key states are AZ, NV, and GA. They are the reason Biden won in 20. and if Joe doesn't figure it out quick they will be the reason he loses in 24. With your map all Biden needs to do is win Pennsylvania and hold the rest. Should concentrate on Pennsylvania and holding the Great Lakes states. Biden could have lost AZ, NV and GA and still won election in 2020. 2
bornontheblue Posted June 11 Author Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 12:42 PM, Mano said: With your map all Biden needs to do is win Pennsylvania and hold the rest. Should concentrate on Pennsylvania and holding the Great Lakes states. Biden could have lost AZ, NV and GA and still won election in 2020. True but Biden led in the polls in NV, AZ, and GA throughout the whole process in 2020. He is 4-6 points behind in all those states right now. Holding any of those states is far from certain for Biden Edit: GA may have been a bonus to Biden in 2020. I think it was truly 50/50 in 2020.
Orange Posted June 11 Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 11:33 AM, bornontheblue said: I am not voting for president. I am just skipping that part of the ballot. I agree, Trump wins. He could possible even get the popular vote. lol, delusional 8 million MORE people will support him now that he spawned an insurrection and was convicted on 34 felony counts? This country deserves to be a fucking laughingstock if that’s the case.
Orange Posted June 11 Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 11:47 AM, bornontheblue said: True but Biden led in the polls in NV, AZ, and GA throughout the whole process in 2020. He is 4-6 points behind in all those states right now. Holding any of those states is far from certain for Biden Edit: GA may have been a bonus to Biden in 2020. I think it was truly 50/50 in 2020. He’s behind in those states because no one gives a shit about the November election in June.
bornontheblue Posted June 11 Author Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 12:54 PM, Orange said: He’s behind in those states because no one gives a shit about the November election in June. Agree, a lot can change between now and November, but I don't think Biden and team has the chops, or the stamina to pull it off with all of the headwinds they face. Obama 2012 could do it, but not this group.
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