AlpineSummer Posted August 5 Author Posted August 5 On 8/4/2024 at 8:14 PM, Joe from Wyo said: Nasdaq futures down 2.5% at the moment lol. Gonna be a bloodbath tomorrow I saw AAPL down 7%, but thin trading so who knows? I'm good w/20% down from here, but I don't think we see the 4200s on the S&P. Economy isn't that bad. .50% cut coming. 1
AlpineSummer Posted August 5 Author Posted August 5 On 8/5/2024 at 12:28 AM, Joe from Wyo said: Yikes…lol S&P down 4% and NASDAQ down over 5% about 35 mts before open. 1
AlpineSummer Posted August 5 Author Posted August 5 He's not right all of the time, but the old prof was more right than me coming out of the Great Recession and other times. Sounds a bit overblown, but then again 3.5-4% for the FRR wouldn't be that low historically.
AlpineSummer Posted August 5 Author Posted August 5 ISM data some better than expected is muting things a bit. Not that bad now at the moment, but lots to unwind.
bornontheblue Posted August 5 Posted August 5 On 8/5/2024 at 7:16 AM, AlpineSummer said: He's not right all of the time, but the old prof was more right than me coming out of the Great Recession and other times. Sounds a bit overblown, but then again 3.5-4% for the FRR wouldn't be that low historically. Sounds Panicky Probably will be .25
The Barber Posted August 5 Posted August 5 Are we officially in a recession? I read that AI was making a stock market bubble, but that there hasn't been a clear return on investment from the billions spent on AI. So the stock market is now reflecting that. I also read that high interest rates and inflation have created the long predicted recession.
The Barber Posted August 5 Posted August 5 On 8/5/2024 at 8:06 AM, bornontheblue said: Sounds Panicky Probably will be .25 I agree. If they lower the interest rates too much, too quickly, it might create stagflation. Stagflation is a combination of slow economic growth, high unemployment, and rising prices that occurs simultaneously in an economy. The term is a combination of the words "stagnation" and "inflation".
bornontheblue Posted August 5 Posted August 5 On 8/5/2024 at 9:24 AM, The Barber said: Are we officially in a recession? I read that AI was making a stock market bubble, but that there hasn't been a clear return on investment from the billions spent on AI. So the stock market is now reflecting that. I also read that high interest rates and inflation have created the long predicted recession. Just a week ago I read an article saying that the Fed pulled off the impossible and we will have a soft landing. Throw that article in the burn pile now, lol. As far as a recession goes we will have to see more data. Unemployment, consumer spending, GDP numbers etc. Another thing to add to the list of things that can impact the election.
AlpineSummer Posted August 5 Author Posted August 5 On 8/5/2024 at 9:06 AM, bornontheblue said: Sounds Panicky Probably will be .25 Even late last week, 0.50% in Sept. was up around 80%. Have not looked today, but prolly 100% probability in the futures. Prof. Siegel has been calling for cuts for a while now (not alone by far). Obviously, no 1.5% cut by fall (at this point). But, as he explains in the video the U3 and PCE data indicates the FFR to be at 4% or a bit lower even now. Not agreeing or disagreeing, but when I saw El-Erian last week call for a cut now (last week) I moved to the "they are late camp". 2
AlpineSummer Posted August 5 Author Posted August 5 AH and almost everything looking green. Probably going to sell a little on the bounce (if). Did not buy anything today. I think the rebound gets followed by some more red.
gordonsolie Posted August 6 Posted August 6 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/06/asia-stock-markets-japan-household-spending-rba-rate-decision.html Asia back up 1
AlpineSummer Posted August 6 Author Posted August 6 On 8/5/2024 at 7:32 PM, East Village Poltergeist said: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/06/asia-stock-markets-japan-household-spending-rba-rate-decision.html Asia back up Almost everything I've got is green AH. Looks like a snapback. I may sell a few selectively if the rebound warrants. I think more downside follows, but the way the Vix went especially with the macro trends in place, I think things go up or sideways into early fall. If not, maybe more buying opps? 1
stanfordchef Posted August 6 Posted August 6 Could be a dead cat bounce. Don’t think we’re out of the woods yet but I’m hopeful 1
AlpineSummer Posted August 6 Author Posted August 6 On 8/5/2024 at 8:11 PM, Joe from Wyo said: Could be a dead cat bounce. Don’t think we’re out of the woods yet but I’m hopeful Vix spike was a shit ton so I expect a rebound. The Japan carry trade shorts stuff, who knows? I had a bio spike 40% today before settling at +20%. AD drug that could be a game changer. Wish I had bought more lower. 1
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