AlpineSummer Posted June 10 Posted June 10 One of the better threads on that other board was a few years' running thread on the markets and related macro economy stuff. News of the day includes the NVDA 10-1 split and Apple's WWDC just opened a few mts. ago. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/10/apple-wwdc-live-updates.html?
stanfordchef Posted June 10 Posted June 10 Took a position on OKLO recently after it crashed following its IPO. I think it could go places. More of a long term play I feel like.
AlpineSummer Posted June 10 Author Posted June 10 On 6/10/2024 at 11:31 AM, Joe from Wyo said: Took a position on OKLO recently after it crashed following its IPO. I think it could go places. More of a long term play I feel like. Idaho Nat. Lab technology connection. I'll put it on a watch list. Save the planet, man. 1
bornontheblue Posted June 10 Posted June 10 On 6/10/2024 at 11:12 AM, AlpineSummer said: One of the better threads on that other board was a few years' running thread on the markets and related macro economy stuff. News of the day includes the NVDA 10-1 split and Apple's WWDC just opened a few mts. ago. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/10/apple-wwdc-live-updates.html? You still holding a piece of NXPI? I have about a 30% return on that stock.
AlpineSummer Posted June 10 Author Posted June 10 On 6/10/2024 at 11:59 AM, bornontheblue said: You still holding a piece of NXPI? I have about a 30% return on that stock. Yes. Probably up 10-12%, but I'd have to check. Small lots. I now have 10x shares of NVDA more than yesterday w/the split. Wishing I hadn't trimmed 12-15% about 30% lower, but taking profits isn't pain. I swapped out some AAPL in '23-early '24 for other things, but did add a little back recently. Looking forward to analysis after the WWDC. Lots of news in biotechs (huge annual oncology conference just finished), but I still haven't really gotten back in that game very much. My largest play keeps disappointing and is now 3-4 years out from a 2nd Rx approval. It just announced it is selling its one approved drug to fund the other. My few other bios doing okay. Flat or up a bit.
Sactowndog Posted June 11 Posted June 11 On 6/10/2024 at 10:31 AM, Joe from Wyo said: Took a position on OKLO recently after it crashed following its IPO. I think it could go places. More of a long term play I feel like. Interesting on your thoughts relative to why you believe it is going places? one concern I have with Nuclear of all types is my concern the cost is usually the cost to generate. But it doesn’t include the cost to distribute. With Solar you don’t have to pay to distribute the Sun does it for you. Battery technology between your car and home will be linked as a Stanford study has shown you can increase Solid State battery life by draining it and letting it rest. Now some of the Small form factor fission may be different if that is their planned product and could be competitive when including distribution costs. Anyway energy is going to be a big deal so I would love to hear your thoughts and tell me where my thinking has holes.
AlpineSummer Posted June 11 Author Posted June 11 The market likes AAPL news from the WWDC. Over $200 w/more PT raises. 1
stanfordchef Posted June 11 Posted June 11 On 6/10/2024 at 6:54 PM, Sactowndog said: Interesting on your thoughts relative to why you believe it is going places? one concern I have with Nuclear of all types is my concern the cost is usually the cost to generate. But it doesn’t include the cost to distribute. With Solar you don’t have to pay to distribute the Sun does it for you. Battery technology between your car and home will be linked as a Stanford study has shown you can increase Solid State battery life by draining it and letting it rest. Now some of the Small form factor fission may be different if that is their planned product and could be competitive when including distribution costs. Anyway energy is going to be a big deal so I would love to hear your thoughts and tell me where my thinking has holes. I think nuclear power is the wave of the future. I’ve been a fan of these mini reactors too. Solar and others serve a purpose but nuclear generates what we need as an increasingly technologically sophisticated country. I could be wrong of course. I also think they have good backing in terms of funding and who the backers are. We’ll see. It seemed like a cheap stock worth taking a flier on in its early stages
Sactowndog Posted June 11 Posted June 11 On 6/11/2024 at 9:19 AM, Joe from Wyo said: I think nuclear power is the wave of the future. I’ve been a fan of these mini reactors too. Solar and others serve a purpose but nuclear generates what we need as an increasingly technologically sophisticated country. I could be wrong of course. I also think they have good backing in terms of funding and who the backers are. We’ll see. It seemed like a cheap stock worth taking a flier on in its early stages Yeah I think it has potential. I also agree Nuclear makes tons of sense as a primary source for data centers and the mini reactors to me solve the distribution cost issue I mentioned. 1
AlpineSummer Posted June 12 Author Posted June 12 Market up early on positive, slightly better than expected CPI data. S&P over 5,400.
bornontheblue Posted June 12 Posted June 12 On 6/12/2024 at 7:38 AM, AlpineSummer said: Market up early on positive, slightly better than expected CPI data. S&P over 5,400. Inflation number was good today. I still doubt we have a rate decrease until after the election though. 10 Year treasury was down substantially this morning and that is good for mortgage rates. There are a lot of people sitting on the sidelines in the housing market and hopefully this can help get things moving.
AlpineSummer Posted June 12 Author Posted June 12 Jim Bianco had a 5-post thread this morning basically saying he thinks the Fed is going to raise its neutral rate projection. The upshot being this takes pressure off to cut rates soon. September is still, however, very much on the table for a 0.25 FFR cut. Odds moved to ≈ 70% after CPI data release this morning. https://www.investors.com/news/economy/federal-reserve-meeting-june-rate-cut-projections-cpi-inflation-sp-500/
AlpineSummer Posted June 12 Author Posted June 12 Conclusion in the link: The cooling of inflation is welcome news but not yet a victory for the Fed. Look for another hawkish hold as the Fed awaits more data to enable it to get off the sidelines and begin the process of cutting rates. The data is reminiscent of last year, when inflation started to cool more rapidly in the second half. The data on the economy has proven more difficult to adjust for seasonal variation emerging from a pandemic. That means the improvement in inflation last year likely understated actual inflation, while the surge we saw at the start 2024 overstated inflation. If we split the difference, inflation is still too hot for the Fed to cut, at least for now. The challenge is that we do not need much monthly change in inflation to buoy annual inflation measures. We still expect a December cut, but a September cut in rates is now a possibility; the challenge will be for the Fed to communicate a shift in momentum on a quarterly basis even as year-over-year inflation measures appear to look stickier.
AlpineSummer Posted June 12 Author Posted June 12 Jim and Diane both had some decent insights. FOMC's "dot plot" now indicating just one cut in '24. Powell presser up soon. 1
AlpineSummer Posted June 12 Author Posted June 12 On 6/12/2024 at 1:58 PM, UNLV2001 said: Good analysis. May-July PCE and other data might give impetus to begin cuts in September, but otherwise starting in early Nov. (just after Election Day) probably gives cover for political hits.
UNLV2001 Posted June 12 Posted June 12 On 6/12/2024 at 2:26 PM, AlpineSummer said: Good analysis. May-July PCE and other data might give impetus to begin cuts in September, but otherwise starting in early Nov. (just after Election Day) probably gives cover for political hits. Yeah, in this political environment any move to reduce interest rates before the November election date will send the LOSS's cult & clones into convulsions -- In their delusional world everything is fixed & rigged against them and if the FED makes a move, they will lose what little is left of their minds
happycamper Posted June 13 Posted June 13 How long does the LLM AI bubble have with interest rates not being cut?
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