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Picking Up The Pieces


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On 3/13/2023 at 12:55 PM, Orange said:

What we've learned is that pretty much every university in the conference, save for Washington State and Oregon State, has an escape parachute option to some other P5 conference should the SEC/B1G/Big 12 poach the other 8 teams.  That's the bottom line.  Stanford, Cal, Oregon, UW, ASU, UA, CU, Utah, etc., are all fine.  WSU and OSU are fucked, save for a miracle arriving in the form of some wicked TV deal that appeals to the bulk of the other 8 schools.

It's as simple as that.  If the Pac implodes, and WSU and OSU end up looking for homes in the WAC or MWC, those schools will be absolutely decimated, financially.   And the communities with them.  It's a bummer, but it's the truth.   Everything else is just background noise.

Your thoughts make some sense, but there are still questions.  For example, if the B1G were to add UDub, Oregon, and then also take Stanford to pair with Notre Dame, where would that leave Cal?  Or, if the four corners (or three of them) were to jump and the B1G wasn't marketing for long trips to the Northwest, where would that leave Oregon and Washington?  In other words, while the Beavs and Cougs are closest to the ledge, nobody in the Pac is totally safe.

The reason why Big-12 expansion is on the table is because that conference's "stability' is a code word for nobody wants to grab any of their members, while the Pac's "instability" goes directly to the desirability of their schools.  Here's a sidethought to consider; are Central Florida, Cincinnati, and KSU really all that much better to have in a conference than Oregon State and Washington State?  The numbers sure don't seem to say so.  From my perspective, when this is all done and the B1G and SEC finally have expanded with whatever add-ons from the ACC and Pac they take, all the rest, the leftovers from the ACC and the Pac, along with the entirety of the Big-12, put together (including the Beavs and Cougs) would make a nice coast-to-coast national conference, a reasonable #3 in the rank of college athletic leagues.

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On 3/13/2023 at 9:55 AM, Orange said:

What we've learned is that pretty much every university in the conference, save for Washington State and Oregon State, has an escape parachute option to some other P5 conference should the SEC/B1G/Big 12 poach the other 8 teams.  That's the bottom line.  Stanford, Cal, Oregon, UW, ASU, UA, CU, Utah, etc., are all fine.  WSU and OSU are fucked, save for a miracle arriving in the form of some wicked TV deal that appeals to the bulk of the other 8 schools.

It's as simple as that.  If the Pac implodes, and WSU and OSU end up looking for homes in the WAC or MWC, those schools will be absolutely decimated, financially.   And the communities with them.  It's a bummer, but it's the truth.   Everything else is just background noise.

I wouldn't say Cal is fine. The B1G won't take them and there is no way they go to the B12. Same can be said of Stanford, though they may be considered for the B1G in the future. They would go independent before going to the B12. Utah might have an issue with the B12, considering the B12 is already in Utah with BYU. For Wash and Ore, they would prefer staying in the PAC over moving to the B12.

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I'm guessing that Kliavkoff comes up with a package that's decent enough (certainly not great) that the Pac stays together.  However, if his package falls significantly short, it would not be out of the question for this to happen: Three of the four corners (Arizona, CU, and ASU) jump to the Big-12, along with San Diego State; and the commissionerless B1G sits on their hands, not willing to move, and knowing that they can go shopping whenever they like.  That would leave an awkward Pac-7 left, a shell of itself, with real questions on what would happen next.  USC and UCLA would be smiling (well, smirking,) three of the four corners would transition to something uncomfortably called "stability," while the Pac-7 might be holding their noses but still thinking about going shopping in Spokane, Vegas, Honolulu, Boise, Fresno, and/or Fort Collins.

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I have a hard time wrapping my head around potential moves until we know what our media rights deal is going to be. I think the B1G ultimately wants to invite UO and UW, but at a lower annual payout than their other 16 schools. If the B1G offers roughly half of what their other schools get, that’s $40-50 million.

If Kliavkoff can surprise us and get a deal comparable to (or in the ballpark of) the B12, UO/UW would stay and and the 4 corners schools have no reason to leave. The Pac lives to fight another day. If Kliavkoff swings and misses…

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On 3/13/2023 at 11:34 AM, Aztecgolfer said:

I wouldn't say Cal is fine. The B1G won't take them and there is no way they go to the B12. Same can be said of Stanford, though they may be considered for the B1G in the future. They would go independent before going to the B12. Utah might have an issue with the B12, considering the B12 is already in Utah with BYU. For Wash and Ore, they would prefer staying in the PAC over moving to the B12.

Cal and Stanford are nationally recognized, historic, prestigious universities.  If they go independent, they'll be fine.  WSU and OSU are not.  If they try and go independent, they'll get 5 P5 opponents per season, tops.  Bankruptcy. 

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On 3/13/2023 at 8:50 PM, glduck said:

I have a hard time wrapping my head around potential moves until we know what our media rights deal is going to be. I think the B1G ultimately wants to invite UO and UW, but at a lower annual payout than their other 16 schools. If the B1G offers roughly half of what their other schools get, that’s $40-50 million.

If Kliavkoff can surprise us and get a deal comparable to (or in the ballpark of) the B12, UO/UW would stay and and the 4 corners schools have no reason to leave. The Pac lives to fight another day. If Kliavkoff swings and misses…

Really hard for me to imagine a scenario apart from the bold.

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I hope the Pac stays together as well. 

By the way, if the conference does fold, my version of the history book will place a huge portion of the blame on UCLA. They held the key to keeping things together. They were more aligned with the other public universities in the conference in terms of mission than USC was. They held the key to keeping rivalries with other Calfornia schools intact. They did not need to sell their souls for the money. As I understand it from the NYT article several months ago, the Pac was going to offer them a disproportionate share to stay. UCLA could have sent the message that conference realignment for TV money only is not the best path, and could have let USC choke on the long distance travel as the solo member of the B1G. UCLA knows this too, because Chancelor Block sent a letter to UW President Cauce apologizing: 

"I wanted to send you a personal note to express my sincere apologies that I was unable to share information with you before the public announcement. I am truly sorry about this.

This was an extremely difficult decision for UCLA — and personally anguishing. I and many others in our Bruin community greatly enjoy the traditions and friendly rivalries that exist within our conference. I want to express the deep respect that I have for you, our other Pac-12 colleagues, and for the conference leadership.”

UCLA blew it. They had a chance to lead here, and they just fell in line with big brother and went for the money. I did not expect more from USC, but I did expect more from UCLA. Lame. 

 

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On 3/15/2023 at 12:52 PM, row Z said:

I hope the Pac stays together as well. 

By the way, if the conference does fold, my version of the history book will place a huge portion of the blame on UCLA. They held the key to keeping things together. They were more aligned with the other public universities in the conference in terms of mission than USC was. They held the key to keeping rivalries with other Calfornia schools intact. They did not need to sell their souls for the money. As I understand it from the NYT article several months ago, the Pac was going to offer them a disproportionate share to stay. UCLA could have sent the message that conference realignment for TV money only is not the best path, and could have let USC choke on the long distance travel as the solo member of the B1G. UCLA knows this too, because Chancelor Block sent a letter to UW President Cauce apologizing: 

"I wanted to send you a personal note to express my sincere apologies that I was unable to share information with you before the public announcement. I am truly sorry about this.

This was an extremely difficult decision for UCLA — and personally anguishing. I and many others in our Bruin community greatly enjoy the traditions and friendly rivalries that exist within our conference. I want to express the deep respect that I have for you, our other Pac-12 colleagues, and for the conference leadership.”

UCLA blew it. They had a chance to lead here, and they just fell in line with big brother and went for the money. I did not expect more from USC, but I did expect more from UCLA. Lame. 

 

This is capitalism, the system we deify, and continue to use, even as it destroys academic sports contests (at best) and destroys lives at worst.  I've got a million fucking better ideas, but we, as a society, don't give a flying fuck about each other's lives, so why would we care about college athletic alignments?

 

It's becoming more and more difficult for me to explain to my kids what the fuck is up with this shit country.

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On 3/15/2023 at 12:52 PM, row Z said:

I hope the Pac stays together as well. 

By the way, if the conference does fold, my version of the history book will place a huge portion of the blame on UCLA. They held the key to keeping things together. They were more aligned with the other public universities in the conference in terms of mission than USC was. They held the key to keeping rivalries with other Calfornia schools intact. They did not need to sell their souls for the money. As I understand it from the NYT article several months ago, the Pac was going to offer them a disproportionate share to stay. UCLA could have sent the message that conference realignment for TV money only is not the best path, and could have let USC choke on the long distance travel as the solo member of the B1G. UCLA knows this too, because Chancelor Block sent a letter to UW President Cauce apologizing: 

"I wanted to send you a personal note to express my sincere apologies that I was unable to share information with you before the public announcement. I am truly sorry about this.

This was an extremely difficult decision for UCLA — and personally anguishing. I and many others in our Bruin community greatly enjoy the traditions and friendly rivalries that exist within our conference. I want to express the deep respect that I have for you, our other Pac-12 colleagues, and for the conference leadership.”

UCLA blew it. They had a chance to lead here, and they just fell in line with big brother and went for the money. I did not expect more from USC, but I did expect more from UCLA. Lame. 

 

I think COVID made it a necessity. That and shitty hires by DG over the years. Also not having their own stadium.

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On 3/15/2023 at 11:11 PM, MrBug708 said:

I think COVID made it a necessity. That and shitty hires by DG over the years. Also not having their own stadium.

While there are legitimate different points of view on this, it's hard to understand how UCLA's move was a "necessity."  Tell that to Oregon State and Wazoo.  It just doesn't resonate.

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On 3/15/2023 at 9:17 PM, EastCoastFan said:

While there are legitimate different points of view on this, it's hard to understand how UCLA's move was a "necessity."  Tell that to Oregon State and Wazoo.  It just doesn't resonate.

I don't think it's supposed to resonate with those schools. 100 million dollars in the red. They choose to save program's at its own school rather than the programs at another school.

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On 3/16/2023 at 6:55 PM, MrBug708 said:

I don't think it's supposed to resonate with those schools. 100 million dollars in the red. They choose to save program's at its own school rather than the programs at another school.

If you get yourself in a deep shithole, there's no reason to believe that some B1G gravytrain will turn things around.  The Bruins are going to be a total disaster in the Big Ten.

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On 3/17/2023 at 10:55 AM, EastCoastFan said:

If you get yourself in a deep shithole, there's no reason to believe that some B1G gravytrain will turn things around.  The Bruins are going to be a total disaster in the Big Ten.

I feel like you are just taking this whole discussion into some giant circular argument.

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On 3/18/2023 at 1:53 PM, glduck said:

If UCLA breaks our men’s basketball title drought this year I will bury any resentment I feel towards them.

Unfortunately, nobody will see it that way.  They're not "ours," they belong to the B1G.  However, we will take their multi-year conference payout.

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