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Picking Up The Pieces


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On 7/2/2022 at 10:19 PM, EastCoastFan said:

If there are any credible moves here, it would be  West Virginia to the ACC if somehow schools like Virginia, North Carolina, and Clemson escaped the conference GOR and left, and teams like Pitt/Cuse/BC/VaTech pushed for their inclusion.  As for Nebraska, give up $100 million a year payout?  C'mon.  The only place they'd ever go would be to join the Sooners in the SEC where the money is similar, but it's hard to believe they'd ever be invited unless the TV people saw it as a winner.  As for the Arizona schools, they're pobably hoping for a 24-team SEC and a 24-team B1G, in which case they'd hope to be a natural extension of the SEC west from Austin and College Station.

ASU in the SEC is a possibility.  What is nuts is that Colorado will soon share a border with a SEC state in Oklahoma.  The Big 12 could even raise ASU's academic prestige to where they could get AAU membership.  I bet you don't know how close Texas Tech and Houston are to AAU membership because they are getting state funding more on par with what Texas & aTm are getting.  If ASU gets AAU membership, the B1G will swoop in and grab both AZ schools end of discussion.  If not, Norman, Austin, College Station, and Fayetteville isn't that far from Tempe.

Nebraska has the same inter conference perception issue as ASU within the B1G but they already were the butt of academic jokes in the Big 8/12 anyway so they are used to it.  But they were already printing money in the Big 12 and getting zero institutional support in that case so money isn't as big of an issue as you'd find with many schools across the country.  Walking away from $100M wouldn't look at bright but Nebraskans are not your typical people.

As for WVU, their research tier ranking is now tier 1 just like the other non AAU ACC schools which wasn't the case when they were still in the Big East/AAC.  They are a legitimate ACC candidate at this point.  The GORs are not as strong as you believe.  The AAC schools that just joined the Big 12 got off pretty easy where they will be paying their exit fees over 14 years.  CU basically took out a loan over the duration of the Pac-12 media deal to pay off their Big 12 exit fees & Pac-12 entry fees and that might not be even $500,000 a year while they are getting millions of dollars from the P12.  Now UNC can give its notice to the ACC and get into the Big Ten tomorrow and then they can finance their ACC exit fees that way.  UNC & UVA are wealthy schools and Florida State & Clemson will find the booster money to cover those ACC exit fees.  Rivalry games are good sources of income and that is why WVU could come in handy for some ACC schools out there.  When CU hosted Nebraska recently, the income earned might have been enough to meet 10% of CU's athletic budget for the year.  That alone would have paid off CU's Big 12 exit fees in one swoop.

Again, those GORs are not as strong as they seem.

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I think a lot hinges on ND. I wonder what the B1G will do if ND turns down an invite. Will they expand further west and take 2-6 teams? Or a mix of PAC/ACC teams. Some have suggested ISU and KU as well from the Big-12 but those seem like long shots. 

The PAC brand still holds a lot of cache even without USC and UCLA. The Big-12 brand still held a lot of cache over the AAC and Mountain West even while losing Texas and OU and everyone thought the Big-12 was DOA. Assuming a core of schools remain intact backfilling with a few MW and possibly some Big-12 schools will solidify the conference. 

The B1G can always go scorched earth and take all the remaining PAC AAU schools which would leave behind ASU, WSU and OSU. Those three could either stick together and cripple the Mountain West. Again the name brand still has marketing value over the MWC. 

Still schools have to decide if they want to go all in on sports in the current NIL landscape we have today, Either compete at the highest levels in the new Power 2 (B1G/SEC) or choose to remain in watered down leagues like the future PAC, Big-12 and ACC with a bunch of the smaller schools from the group of 5 conferences. 

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On 7/3/2022 at 4:28 AM, Trojan209 said:

I wonder what the B1G will do if ND turns down an invite. Will they expand further west and take 2-6 teams? Or a mix of PAC/ACC teams. Some have suggested ISU and KU as well from the Big-12 but those seem like long shots. 

 

Maybe the B1G just stops if ND turns them down.  is there anybody else out there who really adds value to an already $100 million per-school payout?

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In the long run, I think this week’s move is a step to an eventual FOOTBALL-ONLY super league that will obviously also include (at the very least) Oregon, Washington and ASU.

Non-revenue sports may revert/sick the Pac-12 structure or develop a loose west coast collection of regional athletic conferences (PNW, SoCal, etc.)  Since they’re non-revenue, it makes little sense for Arizona to travel to Pullman 🤷🏻‍♂️

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I feel confident that Utah will be ok. We are an AAU school and our school is 100% devoted to making our football team a powerhouse. We are currently the best football team in the PAC 12 and our tenure and facilities will keep us up there.  We just moved up to the 29th ranked television market with thousands more moving in from out of state each month. Our team fans travel better than the rest of of the league. We sell out every game. We just expanded our stadium and could expand again in a few years. 
 

My predictions  are: 

Stanford goes Independent

Colorado, Utah, Arizona and ASU will be invited to the Big 12. 
 

Washington and Oregon will go to the Big 10. Outside chance at Cal to capture the Bay Area Market. Very outside chance Utah gets an invite if the Notre Dame invite falls through. 
 

Washington State, Oregon State may get invited to the Big 12 or will end up in the Mountain West. 

The Mountain West will ask to change to the Pac12 in name only and a few of our schools will remain  

I predict the Pac12 (in the current state) will fold. Thank you ABC/ESPN and FOX. Just destroyed football as we know it. 
 

Barring major injuries, my Utes will win the Pac12 again this year. 

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On 7/3/2022 at 9:15 AM, Scscsc89 said:

In the long run, I think this week’s move is a step to an eventual FOOTBALL-ONLY super league that will obviously also include (at the very least) Oregon, Washington and ASU.

Non-revenue sports may revert/sick the Pac-12 structure or develop a loose west coast collection of regional athletic conferences (PNW, SoCal, etc.)  Since they’re non-revenue, it makes little sense for Arizona to travel to Pullman 🤷🏻‍♂️

I would disagree with football only as everything they do is in the chase for the dollar.  Its only a matter of time before they run out of ways to increase revenue through football and begin making a push to break the NCAA tournament from the grip of the NCAA.

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On 7/3/2022 at 1:23 PM, Scscsc89 said:

I have no doubt that Basketball will do the same thing — I just don’t think it will be the same programs/organization.

I don't think so. Basketball only accounts for 15% of teh media buy.

 

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On 7/3/2022 at 1:39 PM, azgreg said:

I don't think so. Basketball only accounts for 15% of teh media buy.

 

Take control of the NCAA tournament where the NCAA hoards the majority of the billion dollar a year revenue stream and that 15% jumps to 30-35% on average and for some schools that are basketball-centric a potentially bigger jump.

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On 7/3/2022 at 4:39 PM, azgreg said:

I don't think so. Basketball only accounts for 15% of teh media buy.

 

I'm no expert on this, but the argument is that if the golden goose NCAA tourney were taken away from the NCAA and owned by the power conferences, the per-school basketball income would skyrocket.

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On 7/3/2022 at 10:39 AM, Utefan1211 said:

I feel confident that Utah will be ok. We are an AAU school and our school is 100% devoted to making our football team a powerhouse. We are currently the best football team in the PAC 12 and our tenure and facilities will keep us up there.  We just moved up to the 29th ranked television market with thousands more moving in from out of state each month. Our team fans travel better than the rest of of the league. We sell out every game. We just expanded our stadium and could expand again in a few years. 
 

My predictions  are: 

Stanford goes Independent

Colorado, Utah, Arizona and ASU will be invited to the Big 12. 
 

Washington and Oregon will go to the Big 10. Outside chance at Cal to capture the Bay Area Market. Very outside chance Utah gets an invite if the Notre Dame invite falls through. 
 

Washington State, Oregon State may get invited to the Big 12 or will end up in the Mountain West. 

The Mountain West will ask to change to the Pac12 in name only and a few of our schools will remain  

I predict the Pac12 (in the current state) will fold. Thank you ABC/ESPN and FOX. Just destroyed football as we know it. 
 

Barring major injuries, my Utes will win the Pac12 again this year. 

Does UO have a coach not game planning for the Utes again, because he is busy leaving?

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On 7/3/2022 at 9:56 AM, RogueDuck said:

Since no one has pointed it out yet, I’d like to remind everyone who voted down Texas and Oklahoma joining the Pac 10.  Yep, Utah and CU killed the Pac.  

Voting against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State didn’t kill the P12?

The OU & UT vote never happened because UT couldn’t have the LHN either.

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On 7/3/2022 at 10:15 AM, Scscsc89 said:

In the long run, I think this week’s move is a step to an eventual FOOTBALL-ONLY super league that will obviously also include (at the very least) Oregon, Washington and ASU.

Non-revenue sports may revert/sick the Pac-12 structure or develop a loose west coast collection of regional athletic conferences (PNW, SoCal, etc.)  Since they’re non-revenue, it makes little sense for Arizona to travel to Pullman 🤷🏻‍♂️

Or many western schools going independent for football and new conferences that make geographical sense for non revenue sports plus basketball.  CU, UA, ASU, Utah would go to a conference that includes BYU, Utah State, UNM, AFA, CSU, and Wyoming.  The remaining MWC schools hook up with the remaining P12 schools in that manner and maybe go after Gonzaga.

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On 7/4/2022 at 7:03 AM, PAC MAN said:

Or many western schools going independent for football and new conferences that make geographical sense for non revenue sports plus basketball.  CU, UA, ASU, Utah would go to a conference that includes BYU, Utah State, UNM, AFA, CSU, and Wyoming.  The remaining MWC schools hook up with the remaining P12 schools in that manner and maybe go after Gonzaga.

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