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Picking Up The Pieces


PAC MAN

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On 2/22/2023 at 3:25 AM, EastCoastFan said:

Apple's user base is dying, Amazon's is growing.  This choice, if it happens and is the bulk of the media product, will be the end of the conference.  Quickly.  Why?  Nobody in Boston or Orlando or Chicago will pay additional for getting on a streaming service just for the Pac-10, but in those areas millions of people alreay are on Amazon, and just have to tune in.  The bulk of the nation will be lost imediately with Apple.

Latest news I saw is that Apple's AND Amazon are backsliding a bit, and Amazon's share is higher, but I fail to see why that's not an improvement over Pac-12 network.

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On 2/20/2023 at 9:27 AM, Mano said:

 

As for UCLA, their last Rose Bowl appearance was in 1999 ( 24 years ago ) and their last Rose Bowl win was in 1986 ( 37 years ago ), so they probably figure they might as well get paid, as they didn't fare all that well in the PAC either. The thing the move could screw up is their basketball program, which has actually had success.

20K fans in the seats at the Rose Bowl is a terrible optic, and UCLA is stuck with the Rose Bowl until 2042. This past season UCLA averaged 42K and was actually giving tickets away for free. UCLA was ranked most of the season and still couldn't draw. When they are in the B1G they will be in the bottom half of the standings so I would worry about losing what little fan support they have as Californians don't typically support losing teams.

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On 2/22/2023 at 3:25 AM, EastCoastFan said:

Apple's user base is dying, Amazon's is growing.  This choice, if it happens and is the bulk of the media product, will be the end of the conference.  Quickly.  Why?  Nobody in Boston or Orlando or Chicago will pay additional for getting on a streaming service just for the Pac-10, but in those areas millions of people alreay are on Amazon, and just have to tune in.  The bulk of the nation will be lost imediately with Apple.

Apple is worth $2.4T. Amazon $996B. They have the money to make investments into their TV services. Here is something posted on the main SDSU board:

 

Quote

Perhaps a better way is look at those companies' operating cash flow and levered free cash flow.

1. Operating cash flow (OCF) is a measure of the amount of cash generated by a company's normal business operations.
2. Levered free cash flow (LFCF) is the amount of money a company has left remaining after paying all of its financial obligations.

Last 12 month OCF:

  • Apple: $109B
  • Amazon: $47B
  • Disney: $5.25B


Last 12 month LFCF:

 

  • Apple: $85B
  • Amazon: $8M (yes, $8 million, not billion)
  • Disney: $4.86B

Apple is a cash generating machine.  It pays an annual ~$15B in dividends to its shareholders. 
Amazon recent cash flows are somewhat distorted by bad investments and other business operations.  It is usually not this terrible. In 2019/20, it had $20-25b/year in LFCF.
Disney is in another zip code in another country vs. Apple or Amazon

 

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On 2/22/2023 at 1:46 PM, Orange said:

Paywalled, but from the first paragraph just sounds like more gloom and doom.

It is indeed mostly gloom and doom. I was going to try to summarize the main points, but I am not sure it is worth it.

The most recent Wilner / Canzano podcast was more positive. The last 10 minutes are so are about media rights negotiation status.  

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On 2/24/2023 at 9:46 AM, glduck said:


ION? The Onion couldn’t satirize us better than this.

The parent company of ION may be looking at a takeover of Bally Sports. This could be for Tier 3 broadcast rights. I looked, and ION is included with my premium cable package. 

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On 3/1/2023 at 8:11 AM, Aztecgolfer said:

The parent company of ION may be looking at a takeover of Bally Sports. This could be for Tier 3 broadcast rights. I looked, and ION is included with my premium cable package. 

Doesn't matter, we already know Pac-12 and ION is not a thing.  READ.

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On 2/13/2023 at 10:44 PM, EastCoastFan said:

Unfortunately, it's not clear that message says anything.

Here's what I got from that press release:

"The core of our conference is leaving, and the remaining ten schools are desperately trying to hold this conference together before it completely implodes."

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There's a reason why ESPN, Fox Sports, CBS Sports and other networks dedicated to "sports" are not leaping at the chance to outbid Amazon, ION or Apple for the broadcasting rights, etc., of the PAC12.  And that reason is that networks who are sports oriented, recognize that the PAC12 - especially with UCLA and USC leaving - will not bring in the viewership and money that other conferences do.  In short, the return on the investment is limited, and these networks are not going to try and outbid Amazon, ION or Apple.

For Amazon, ION or Apple, going after a TV deal with the PAC12 is like the Jacksonville Jaguars owner going after Urban Meyer without realizing that Urban Meyer is a fraud, and foolishly opening the vault to make him the Jaguars HC.

The PAC12 isn't a fraud, but the conference does not measure up to other P5 conferences, and if any of these three entities secure a TV contract with the PAC12, it will be a strong money grab for the PAC12, but a bad investment for "winning" network.

At the end of the day, none of the schools being mentioned as potential new PAC12 members will measure up to UCLA and USC.  It's going to be a significant drop on multiple levels.

Rather than rush to fill the void being left by UCLA and USC, the conference needs to stand pat, with the 10 schools they have, secure a solid TV deal, and do their best to make those 10 schools as strong and profitable as possible.  The conference can still have a strong league with 10 schools.  Raising those 10 schools to the best they can be, should be the focus.  The leap to go after Amazon, ION or Apple is a desperation move that doesn't need to happen.

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