The Flu

[Scscsc89]

but your point is fair — we should be able figure out a way to at least start thinking about reopening safely.

if only an organization had a step-by-step detailed guide on how local governments could help churches, schools and small businesses figure out how to do so. 🤷🏻‍♂️

https://apnews.com/7a00d5fba3249e573d2ead4bd323a4d4

[RogueDuck]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/2020/05/jarring-numbers-for-how-dangerous-coronavirus-has-been-for-older-ohioans-and-how-few-younger-people-have-died.html%3foutputType=amp

 

This is all I can find for the US, but I did hear the stats on a pod cast, and it was pretty close to this nation wide.  Also on the CDC site, they show ages, but then it only says New York state.  

[Orange]

13 hours ago, KUGRDON said:

Hospitalizations

The COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) conducts population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in select counties participating in the Emerging Infections Program (EIP) and states participating in the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Project (IHSP). COVID-NET-estimated hospitalization rates are updated weekly.

A total of 13,114 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations were reported by sites between March 1, 2020, and April 25, 2020. The overall cumulative hospitalization rate was 40.4 per 100,000 population. The highest rate of hospitalization is among adults aged ≥ 65 (131.6 per 100,000), followed by adults aged 50-64 years (63.7 per 100,000) and adults aged 18-49 years (20.6 per 100,000).

 

————

There is no substitute for 2 minutes of research.

What the fuck's your point exactly?  Yes, we've kept hospitalization very low thanks to the most extreme form of quarantine in U.S. history, which has brought about Depression-era unemployment and GDP #s.

 

Is that your point?  Because it's a pretty shitty one.  I'm talking about potential hospitalization rates if we completely open up the economy without adequate testing.  I'm CONSISTENTLY amazed at how stupid you can be.

[Orange]

14 hours ago, RogueDuck said:

Except the death rate as it relates to age, is pretty similar in the US in compared to the rest of the world.  

 

And for orange.  I'm not saying we stop social distancing, but we can work and social distance.  It wouldn't be that difficult. Also, lots of hospitals right now are dead, they could handle an uptick in patients, if that did happen.  

No, we can't.  Have you been in the world lately?  If everyone 65-and-under is going to work, we cannot social distance.

Where's your data for hospitals being "dead"?  They certainly wouldn't be dead if we all go out into the world, and sprain ankles and break legs and get in car wrecks ON TOP of a crush of COVID patients.

 

Christ, I feel like I'm talking into a wind-tunnel when i speak with some of you "fuck it, let's re-open" people.  IF YOU WANT TO REOPEN, PRESSURE YOUR LAWMAKERS FOR TESTING KITS.  That's the only way it happens, short of a vaccine, which is probably 2 years away from being widely available.  And, oh, our wise federal government has decided to boycott WHO.

[Orange]

14 hours ago, RogueDuck said:

Except the death rate as it relates to age, is pretty similar in the US in compared to the rest of the world.  

 

And for orange.  I'm not saying we stop social distancing, but we can work and social distance.  It wouldn't be that difficult. Also, lots of hospitals right now are dead, they could handle an uptick in patients, if that did happen.  

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/22/coronavirus-trump-says-us-mortality-rate-one-worlds-lowest/3002516001/

The U.S. has the 33rd-highest mortality rate, measured as deaths divided by total cases, out of the 134 countries tracked by Johns Hopkins. That means more than 100 countries have lower mortality rates than the U.S., although many of those countries reported comparatively few cases.

[Orange]

“The whole point of this social distancing is to buy us time to build up capacity to do the types of public health interventions we know work,” Natalie Dean, a biostatistics professor at the University of Florida, told me. “If we’re not using this time to scale up testing to the level that we need it to be … we don’t have an exit strategy. And then when we lift things, we’re no better equipped than we were before.”

 

[Scscsc89]

Huh

 

[Orange]

If you vote to re-elect this guy, you're just plainly stating that you're a stupid asshole.

 

[RogueDuck]

9 hours ago, Orange said:

No, we can't.  Have you been in the world lately?  If everyone 65-and-under is going to work, we cannot social distance.

Where's your data for hospitals being "dead"?  They certainly wouldn't be dead if we all go out into the world, and sprain ankles and break legs and get in car wrecks ON TOP of a crush of COVID patients.

 

Christ, I feel like I'm talking into a wind-tunnel when i speak with some of you "fuck it, let's re-open" people.  IF YOU WANT TO REOPEN, PRESSURE YOUR LAWMAKERS FOR TESTING KITS.  That's the only way it happens, short of a vaccine, which is probably 2 years away from being widely available.  And, oh, our wise federal government has decided to boycott WHO.

My dude, why are you so angry.  Maybe you should start doing shrooms.  If you do to much marijuana, you start to get angry, I've seen it before.  

[KUGRDON]

21 hours ago, Orange said:

What the fuck's your point exactly?  Yes, we've kept hospitalization very low thanks to the most extreme form of quarantine in U.S. history, which has brought about Depression-era unemployment and GDP #s.

 

Is that your point?  Because it's a pretty shitty one.  I'm talking about potential hospitalization rates if we completely open up the economy without adequate testing.  I'm CONSISTENTLY amazed at how stupid you can be.

Practiced ignorance.

[Scscsc89]

So Fauci, the head of the CDC and the head of the FDA are now all in 14-day self quarantine because pence’s infected press secretary attended the coronavirus task force meetings & we know how the Vice President feels about wearing masks

 

[Scscsc89]

 

[KUGRDON]

1 hour ago, Scscsc89 said:

 

Would deaths in the last two weeks be attributable to new cases (infections contracted) during that period?

Does that chart show a flattening of the curve rather than decline?

From CDC

The incubation period for COVID-19, which is the time between exposure to the virus (becoming infected) and symptom onset, is on average 5-6 days, however can be up to 14 days. During this period, also known as the “pre-symptomatic” period, some infected persons can be contagious. Therefore, transmission from a pre-symptomatic case can occur before symptom onset.

This article seems to suggest a thirteen day period between reporting (onset of symptoms and diagnosis?) and death where that occurs, so 1) 18 days from day of infection to account for a short incubation period and 2) 27 days for a longer incubation period?

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article

Spain began loosening self-distancing restrictions on or about April 13 allowing some non-essential workers to return to work while retaining other restrictions.  https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-spain-to-lift-some-of-its-covid-19-lockdown-rules-11972473

All this said, I’m not sure what implications the tweeter was making, if any.
 

[Scscsc89]

The GOP has been undermining state government virus regulations since the April 7 Wisconsin primary & April 15 Lansing protests which were organized in part by Michigan state trump campaign officials and funded by the DeVos family.

The April 18 protest in Olympia, Washington was organized by the Kitsap county republican party & featured 3 GOP state legislators as speakers.

plenty of time to impact current numbers

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_anti-lockdown_protests

[KUGRDON]

And yet that time period is when deaths flattened and the vast majority of deaths in the last 30 days would be attributable to infections occurring prior to that period.  Moreover, some of the states experiencing declines are those which also have had protests.  Finally, protests are isolated events not necessarily connected with overall changes in behavior and lack of voluntary compliance  in very liberal locations.  Probably more people at California beaches, Central Park and the Mall in DC than at the protests.  Bottom line, premature and highly speculative to draw any connections which the data you posted demonstrates as noted above.

The numbers will continue to be unstable. I expect the numbers will be better when actions taken resemble those taken in Washington (construction and elective surgery allowed, restrictions on fishing and golfing loosened), less so when California’s actions (more retail shopping) are mirrored and negative where Georgia’s  And most of Florida actions Are followed.

Finally when at least 42 states have loosened restrictions its irrational to attribute such actions to any political party.  Risk management is not risk elimination and both retaining and loosening restriction have health and other costs.  Finally, an important factor in establishing and maintaining restrictions is voluntary compliance.  Without widespread voluntary compliance with what are perceived as rational restrictions, the value of restrictions are greatly diminished.  Pretty stupid to say that four family members who live together can’t be on a boat.

[Scscsc89]

Look at this graph again & imagine your reaction is “Sweet, we’ve flattened deaths!”

[Scscsc89]

23 minutes ago, KUGRDON said:

Finally when at least 42 states have loosened restrictions its irrational to attribute such actions to any political party. 

your false equivalence is as limitless as your loss of principles 

[Mano]

6 minutes ago, Scscsc89 said:

Look at this graph again & imagine your reaction is “Sweet, we’ve flattened deaths!”

 

Yeah, 2K deaths per day and holding steady. Mission Accomplished!

Would be nice if there was leadership on a national level. Instead we have an administration that actively blocks guidance from the CDC on how states should be reopening, and guys like Don who are trying to justify it.

[KUGRDON]

I hope you look at your data again and attain some degree of rationality.

[KUGRDON]

Despite your, Orgs and SC’s attempts to make a strawman of me, I am not advocating wholesale abandonment of restrictions and don’t endorse actions of the Trump Admin.  I advocate for data driven actions aimed at decreasing limitations as that can be done without inflaming the consequences of the virus.  There will be a loosening if restrictions everywhere, the challenge is to keep such actions rational and data driven.