Hey Utenation. Sorry, did not see your question until today.
Long story short, i think the over/under of 7.5 wins for UW is fair. I believe we are replacing 20 of 22 starters from last year (10 of which were drafted), as well as the entire coaching staff and Athletic Director. So, there are obviously a number of reasons why expectations should be lowered from UW's 14-1 No. 2 season last year.
On the other hand, UW is apparently the first team to reach the CFP and be unranked the following season. UW is also the first team to be unranked in the AP poll after finishing No. 2 the previous year since Army in 1951. So, the football press have a pretty pessimistic view of UW's chances.
From what i have read, the defense should be quite solid everywhere, except maybe depth at DT. I think the defense actually has a chance to be better than last year. With Bill Belichick helping out his son (new defensive coordinator Steve Belichick), i expect the defense will be surprising opponents regularly. On offense, the biggest question mark will be the O line. We are young and unproven and not very deep. But, I am assuming we will be leaning on the run game and quick passing plays to avoid sacks. The skill player talent should be decent if the line can surprise.
The schedule starts out relatively easy (Weber State, E. Michigan, WSU, Northwestern, @Rutgers). If UW can start 5-0, i think a winning record is doable with two more wins out of the last 7 (Mich, @Iowa, @Indiana, USC, @Penn State, UCLA, @ Oregon). I am hoping for 7 wins. Anything beyond that would be a very good sign for Fisch, IMO.
Can I count on the Utes to win the Big12 in year one? Would love to see that.